Todd's Takes: A Rookie Review and Presenting a Rant

Look Out Bello

Yeah, I know it's Bay-oh. If one more person tweeted the pronunciation, it would have been trending. Bello checks in at No. 70 on James Anderson's Top 400 Prospects. I was wearing two hats during his debut, watching it from the perspective of an unbiased fantasy analyst and that from a guy whose earliest memories rooting for the Red Sox go back to being an eight-year-old tyke in 1971.

He certainly passed the eye test, though I didn't see much by way of control or command. I got the impression he was just relying on his stuff and not really setting up batters. The following pitch log somewhat corroborates this, though it's apparent Bello and catcher Christian Vazquez were trying to adapt Bello's arsenal to the Rays' batters strength and weaknesses.

Admittedly, I'm not an expert at pitch sequencing, but Bello seemed to throw the same pitch consecutively to the same batter an awful lot. He faced 21 hitters, nine of which saw the same offering at least twice in a row:

Maybe I'm wrong, but don't you have to mix it up to major league hitters? I opted not to see what happened when batters saw the same pitch over and over. This was one start, his first one. It's not worth getting too granular.

I did come away with two other observations. It's clear the Rays were aware of Bello's propensity to work fast as they used all the tricks to disrupt his rhythm, as they should. To his credit, Bello did not appear shaken, but it's something he'll have to get used to. As an aside, I'm curious how the pitch clock will hinder batters from their efforts to slow down a fast-working hurler.

The other concern I have is the delta between Bello's fast and off speed stuff.

The difference between Bello's fastballs and change is barely over eight mph. Bello's arm action is very good, he keeps the change low and there is significant sweeping movement, but if he's too predictable, major league hitters will guess and make him pay.

This is a lot to lay on a kid making his first start. Neither the fan nor analyst is concerned. Considering the job Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush has done with guys with far inferior stuff, I have confidence Bello will mature and make adjustments. Let's just keep initial expectations in check.

He Was Framed

Sorry, he was presented, as if "presenting the pitch" adds some level of respectability to it. I'll be perfectly frank. I hate the fact pitch framing pitch presentation works. I'm a data guy and the numbers don't lie; some catchers are better at presenting pitches than others. The year-to-year results aren't perfect, but there is variance with every stat for batters, pitchers and fielders.

I just don't get it. Whether a pitch is a ball or strike depends on its location relative to the strike zone, which is several feet in front of where the catcher is receiving the ball. Having the position of the catcher's mitt influence a call is absolutely baffling. The ball has likely moved horizontally and has likely dropped after it passed the strike zone. This isn't wiffle ball where a strike lands in the lawn chair; it's professional baseball played at the highest level in the universe.

I'm not going to pretend I know what it's like to set up behind the plate and judge a small object traveling twice as fast as I drive while swerving a whole lot more. Spending my 18-year-old summer umping Babe Ruth league games hardly qualifies as expert status.

Even so, why does where the catcher moves his glove after he catches it influence calls?

Aside from my not-so-vast three months umping pitches thrown by teenagers not old enough to drive, I have undergraduate degrees in Biology and Biochemistry plus a Masters in Chemistry, so I have a working knowledge of synapses, neurons and all that stuff. I have talked to some friends with even more understanding and they've talked about response time, and human psyche and a few other brain tricks explaining how a person can be influenced by presenting.

OK, I get it. But still. IT SHOULD NOT WORK!

To be able to say it works, results need to be consistent from year-to-year, with an accepted level of variance. My research indicates this is the case, between catchers and umpires. That is, there's a group of catchers better and worse at presenting, and a set of umpires better and worse at not being swayed by framing presentation.

The latter point drives me crazy. The fact some umpires are more or less influenced by what a catcher does indicates presentation should not matter. 

I would love for MLB to interview the umpires at either extreme, asking them their process. I know this seems trite and will likely lead to obvious responses, but those unaffected by the catcher have to be doing something different. Whatever it is should be captured and taught to everyone setting up behind the plate with a clicker in their hand. Hmm, do umps still use clickers?

Several years ago, one of the speakers at BaseballHQ's First Pitch Forum, framed presented a talk on the subject. The takeaway was the more subtle the glove movement, the more effective the presentation. Admittedly, this is rather intuitive, but there are countless examples of data disproving intuition.

I invented a little game the other night. You watch a game and see how a catcher receives five pitches. Does he softly catch an inside or outside pitch and gently move it to the corner, or does he snap everything to the center of the zone, regardless where it was thrown? It amazes me how many backstops do the latter. That's not proper presentation, at least it shouldn't be.

Sure enough, my hit rate was well over 50 percent when guessing whether the catcher was an above- or below-average catcher according to the FRM measure found in the Advanced Fielding tab on Fangraphs.

Box Score Blitz (Thursday July 7)

• HOU 5, KC 2: I should probably spell it Verander since I'm taking the L on Justin Verlander. Aside from not missing a beat in terms of skills, I was leery of workload and he's on a pace to threaten 200 innings. Even if he slows down, he'll dust my expectation of around 130-140 frames. Jose Altuve continues to enjoy his best season since 2017. He's even increased his running (as he promised) with six bags, his most since he stole six in 2019.
• PIT 4, CIN 2 (Game 1): Roansy Contreras rebounded from the worst start of his season to toss his best, fanning seven in six frames, but he was sent back to Triple-A Indianapolis between games. Mike Minor continues to give the Reds innings but nothing else, though that's important for Cincinnati. However, for obstinate fools like me, it's time to give up on a career revival in the Great American Ballpark (hence the foolish part).
• PHI 5, WSH 3: Speaking of foolish, I wasn't on Darick Hall when he was called up to fill in for Bryce Harper. His .894 OPS with Triple-A Lehigh Valley was fine, but he was 26 years old, and more homers (20) than doubles (18) is usually a sign of some good luck. Sure, his 1.032 OPS won't last, but what's in the books won't go away, and the smart team manager will cut bait before the pixie dust wears off.
• BAL 4, LAA 1: Adley Rutschman clocked the first of what should be many homers at Camden Yards, bringing his slash for the past month to .258/.320/.517. In today's game, that's top-12 catcher material. Jonathan Villar has started the last four games at the hot corner for the Angels. Over his previous two, he's 4-for-9 with two steals.
• NYM 10, MIA 0: Trevor Williams came through with seven shutout innings, but he's ticketed to return to the bullpen with Chris Bassitt expected back from the COVID-19 IL. The bottom four of the Mets lineup went 7-for-15 with eight runs and eight RBI.
• NYY 6, BOS 5: Despite two homers from Rafael Devers off Gerrit Cole, the Yankees juggernaut rolled on. Devers has now clubbed six long balls off Cole, the most the righty has surrendered to any hitter. Clay Holmes continues to defy gravity for his 16th save.
• CIN 5, PIT 1 (Game 2): It's just two games, but with a 2-for-4 effort in both ends of the twin bill, perhaps Jonathan India is ready to revert to last season's form. His numbers are down across the board, but yesterday he hit two balls over 100 mph. This has nothing to do with India being the most expensive player ($31) on my NL only Tout Wars team.
• STL 3, ATL 2 (F/11): Spencer Strider fanned the first six hitters before finishing with a dozen strikeouts in six frames. However, Tyler Matzek allowed the zombie runners to score in the 10th and 11th, giving the Cardinals the win. Both runs were unearned, as dictated by the scoring for the inane extra inning rules.
• DET 2, CHW 1: Dylan Cease posted a six-inning, one-run effort, but Beau Brieske tossed six scoreless frames. The teams exchanged runs in the ninth with Gregory Soto gathering his 17th save. Expect Soto to be sought after by teams looking to fortify their bullpen. Michael Fulmer could also be traded and is the better pitcher, but if he remains in Motown, Fulmer is next in line.
• COL 4, ARI 3: The Rockies have struggled on the road versus lefties for years. Last night, Dallas Keuchel took advantage, but the Diamondbacks still lost as the Rockies handed Mark Melancon his seventh loss. Carson Kelly has been showing signs of life this month. After going 2-for-4 with all three RBI in the losing effort, he's slashing .294/.294/.706 in July.
• SD 2, SF 1 (F/10): Most importantly, Jurickson Profar was released from the hospital Friday after a horrific collision with CJ Abrams. As for the game, Joe Musgrove and Logan Webb hooked up in a good, ol' fashioned pitchers' duel, with Jorge Alfaro the hero in extras. Alfaro doesn't play as much as frontline catchers, but his .277/.312/.459 line merits consideration in two-catcher formats despite his 35 percent strikeout rate.
• LAD 5, CHC 3: The Tony Gonsolin magic show continued its tour (yes, he's been good, not just lucky). Mookie Betts led off with a homer, then blasted his first walkoff with the Dodgers. In between, he was hit on the hand by a Mark Leiter Jr. pitch, but he wound up being fine. Craig Kimbrel blew another save with Alex Vesia garnering the last out. It's getting harder for me to find excuses for Kimbrel's subpar season.
• SEA 8, TOR 3: The Mariners took advantage of a bullpen game from the Blue Jays in Ty France's return from the IL. Mentioning France has nothing to do with having a .014 point lead in batting average in AL LABR and my wanting to deal France before Sunday's FAAB period.