Todd's Takes: Putting a Bow on the Moves

When we last convened, the major trades and free agent signings through the end of last year were reviewed. Let's pick up on New Year's Day and get things current. This will be the last installment of the series. As has been the case with the others, if I fail to touch on a player for whom you have interest, hit me up in the discussion below.

TRADES

Tigers acquire Matt Vierling, Nick Maton and Donny Sands

The Phillies deemed Vierling expendable with Brandon Marsh slated to play center field. Maton was redundant with the likes of Edmundo Sosa and Vimael Machin available as bench infielders. And that doesn't even include Scott Kingery. OK, maybe not Kingery.

The Tigers cleaned house of all Castros, opening up playing time in the infield and outfield. Vierling is the better hitter, but Maton may have an easier pathway to playing time with only Jonathan Schoop at second and no one assured of regular time at third base (Ryan Kreidler and Tyler Nevin are in the mix). Vierling will compete with Riley Greene, Austin Meadows, Akil Baddoo and Kerry Carpenter.

Phillies acquire Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens

When the Phillies signed Craig Kimbrel, it was noted that they have an affinity for relievers with plus stuff but poor control, feeling they can work on control but that stuff is inherent. Soto fits that mold, but he's not as dominant as Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado. Perhaps the thinking is when the Phillies fine-tune Soto's control, his strikeouts will dovetail, since he averages 98-mph on his fastball.

Blue Jays acquire Zach Thompson

Before delving in, I need to make sure I'm talking about the right Thompson. Let's see, Zack Thompson is the converted reliever with good (but luck-driven) surface stats for the Cardinals, while Zach is primarily a starter with control and command issues. Got it.

Thompson looks to begin the season in a swingman capacity, but with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White earmarked for the back end of the Blue Jays rotation, Thompson could get a chance. Strictly number scouting, he throws five pitches, but his four-seam and sinker average the same velocity and his cutter and changeup come in at similar speeds. The delta between the first pair and second duo is less than 10 mph. Thompson does throw a 77 mph curveball, but generally, pitches are more effective when their individual velocities differ and when the fastball(s) and changeup are at least 10 clicks apart.

Dodgers acquire Miguel Rojas

The Dodgers' MLB.com depth chart lists Gavin Lux as the starting shortstop, leaving Rojas off entirely. Roster resource also has Lux as the starter, with Rojas as a reserve infielder. We have Rojas as the starter, but it's clear the Dodgers aren't committing to anyone, at least not yet. If Rojas were reported to be the everyday shortstop, at best he's a reserve pick, possibly in play as a matchup candidate.

Orioles acquire Darwinzon Hernandez

It's surprising the Phillies didn't make an offer for Hernandez, given his career 32.3 percent strikeout rate and 17.7 percent walk rate. Maybe he was intimidated by the Green Monster, so he'll feel more comfortable working in front of the renovated left field in Camden Yards.

Marlins acquire Jacob Amaya

As will be addressed shortly, the Marlins' shortstop scenario is as muddled as the Dodgers'. Amaya could be the best defender of all the candidates in both infields. That said, there is obviously a reason why the Dodgers prefer Rojas, and that's Amaya's offense. With Rojas as the bar, that's not comforting for Marlins fans. On the other hand, Amaya is just 24 years old and exhibited some pop in Double- and Triple-A last season. This is 100 percent anecdotal, but there's an extensive list of slick-fielding infielders who parlayed excellent hand-eye coordination into better contact. This is not a prediction, but it's enough to grab Amaya late in a draft-and-hold format.

Twins acquire Pablo Lopez, Jose Salas and Byron Chourio

I'll leave it to James Anderson to talk about Salas and Chourio, as they're both covered in the notes on their player page. Lopez is the focus here. Regular readers of my stuff know I'm a park factor wonk. I love finding latent edges in that realm. LoanDepot Park has the reputation of being a pitcher-friendly venue, perhaps of the extreme variety. While it suppresses power, it plays neutral for runs, which is more important for pitching stats. In fact, Target Field is a slightly better pitcher's park, which could be contrary to conventional wisdom, availing a buying opportunity. Not to mention, even with the more balanced schedule, teams still have four series against each divisional foe, and the AL Central appears to be the least daunting of the six.

Marlins acquire Luis Arraez

Other than switching leagues in single-league formats, nothing changes for Arraez from a fantasy perspective other than losing outfield eligibility. He already qualifies at second base, so Miami installing him as the regular at the keystone doesn't change anything, at least not with respect to Arraez.

There's always a chance Arraez moves back to first base or designated hitter, but for now he's the second baseman. Many assumed that meant Jazz Chisholm would slide to shortstop, but Chisholm volunteered to move to center field and the Marlins took him up on it. This leaves Joey Wendle as the likely shortstop, with Jordan Groshans in the mix as well as Jacob Amaya.

Long term, I like the move for Chisholm, and the fact he suggested it makes it even better. There's a nice history of infielders successfully converting to the outfield. Mookie Betts is a nice (cherry-picked) recent example.

Twins acquire Michael Taylor

Many expect a follow-up move from the Twins (read: Max Kepler trade), but if you're reading these words as they're currently being typed, nothing has yet to manifest. Taylor is one of the better defensive outfielders in the game. Some metrics suggest he's the best. That's great if you play in a sim league, but for traditional fantasy, he's a back-end outfielder, with double-digit steals and homers plausible. The park and team context is essentially parallel.

From the Twins, Nick Gordon stands to lose the most. The infield is full, but there was a chance he could pick up action by shagging flies. That could still happen if Kepler is traded, however.

Taylor's absence opens up playing time for several outfielders in Kansas City. It's unclear if it will be evenly distributed, or if Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel or Drew Waters is the chief beneficiary. 

Red Sox acquire Adalberto Mondesi

Why extend Xander Bogaerts or sign Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson or Trea Turner when you can pick up Mondesi for a 30-something lefty reliever? Wearing my Red Sox hat, I'm OK with the deal. Probably not by design, but Chaim Bloom is trying to emulate 2013, or what almost in transpired in 2021, with all the stars aligning perfectly. Though in baseball terms, it's not stars, but scrubs aligning. Boston has a bunch of movable parts, and Mondesi is injury-prone (thanks, Lord Obvious). If he's treated as a luxury item, speculating on Mondesi is fine. That is, when you're satisfied with your hitting and pitching foundations, and can afford a mispick, Mondesi merits attention.

FREE AGENTS

Nationals sign Dominic Smith

From a practical sense, Smith must feel he'll at minimum be given a chance to carve out significant playing time with the Nationals. From the team's perspective, a one-year, $2 million contract doesn't leave them pot committed, so Smith needs to earn action. On the surface, his recent production paints a pessimistic picture, but as suggested in his site outlook, Smith has been snakebitten, so leaving one of the poorest hitting venues to play in one of the best could give him a shot of confidence. Smith is a mixed-league reserve who could end up being more.

The signing pushes Joey Meneses to the outfield and/or designated hitter. Don't worry, there's plenty of room for regular playing time.

Brewers sign Wade Miley

The Brewers have some rotation depth, but only Aaron Ashby profiles to lose some fantasy charm with Miley rejoining Milwaukee. A one-year, $4.5 million contract loaded with incentives is more than what's typically given to a swingman but not enough to keep Miley in the rotation if he's not effective. Miley only pitched 37 frames last season, so don't be so quick to cross a cheap Ashby off your keeper list.

Cubs sign Eric Hosmer

Well, someone was going to do it. At the time, both Hosmer and Matt Mervis were slated for everyday action, though that has since changed (more in a bit). Wrigley Field is a bit of an upgrade over Petco Park, but not enough to render Hosmer anything more than mixed-league reserve fodder. That is, unless you need his clubhouse presence on your fantasy squad.

Padres sign Adam Engel

Engel is strictly NL-only fodder, but he could play early while Fernando Tatis serves the final 20 games of his suspension. Engel could also play if the Padres want to give Juan Soto or Tatis some time at designated hitter and should also allow San Diego to pinch-hit for Trent Grisham if needed.

Padres sign Brent Honeywell 

I have no confidence Honeywell will be able to stay healthy. I also don't know if he still throws a screwball, and if he does, whether it's still effective. What I do know is Honeywell is probably my favorite player I saw in the Arizona Fall League. Watching batters turn around and look inquisitively at the ump and catcher after they were fooled by a scroogie was a blast.  

Mariners sign AJ Pollock

Now 35 years old, Pollock should be mainly a short-side platoon guy, but he'll probably play the same amount as a strong-side guy, making him borderline mixed-league worthy, especially if he rebounds from last season's downturn. Julio Rodriguez and Teoscar Hernandez will play everyday, leaving Pollock in the mix for the last outfield spot and designated hitter. Seattle hopes Jarred Kelenic rounds out the outfield while several hitters float through designated hitter. Pollock could platoon with Kelenic while serving as his insurance policy.

Blue Jays sign Brandon Belt

Toronto is a bit of a curious landing spot for Belt. Of course, the Blue Jays don't care about your fantasy team and how Alejandro Kirk may lose some time at designated hitter. That said, Belt has played in only 97 and 78 games over the past two seasons. At best, Belt will play against most right-handers, leaving a decent number of games against southpaws where Kirk can DH. 

It's unclear how the renovations to Rogers Centre will affect Belt. The shorter distance to the fences is obviously beneficial, but high fences will counter the advantage, with the extent still unknown.

Angels sign Brett Phillips

Unless your league counts pitching stats from position players, this signing is rather inconsequential, at least for fantasy purposes. Phillips is fun to root for, so sure, he's a scrub candidate in an AL-only format. Actually, no, just root for him while watching Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout, without any fantasy implications. I mean, he's a reserve pick in leagues drafting only players whose name is a type of screwdriver.

Marlins sign Johnny Cueto

As mentioned earlier, loanDepot Park isn't the pitching haven as perceived, but it does squash power. Up until last season, Cueto featured an above-average home run rate, so the new digs should help keep it low. That said, Cueto doesn't miss many bats, and Miami's defense is looking suspect. Let someone else pay for the name brand who's coming off a solid campaign and pitching in what's perceived to be a good venue. Cueto is in a monster division.

Nationals sign Corey Dickerson

Dickerson will likely be relegated to the busier side of a left field platoon, though there were a few years earlier in his career where Dickerson handled southpaws well enough to play everyday. He picked the right park to regain some of his lost power, as Nationals Stadium is plus for homers, doubles and hits.

Padres sign Nelson Cruz

Cruz signed for just $1 million ("just"), so chances are he's ticketed for the right-handed side of a designated hitter platoon with Matt Carpenter. I wish I could point to something in the 42-year old's numbers, but 42 is the operative number. His bat speed has diminished and likely isn't coming back. The Boomstick is more like the Broomstick.

Athletics sign Shintaro Fujinami

The book on Fujinami is he has plus stuff, including a heater capable of touching triple digits. The problem is location, location, location. Considering Fujinami had the option of where he signed, perhaps he chose Oakland due to a park that suppresses homers, hits and especially runs. This will be welcome after working in the bandboxes that populate the NPB. That is, Fujinami could be more comfortable throwing strikes than he was overseas.

Pirates sign Andrew McCutchen

You can't complain how some teams carry a silly low payroll and also criticize them adding payroll on a player who makes them better, but clearly not even close to a contender. This statement loses a little oomph when the principal involved is a former fan favorite returning to his roots, but the contradictory nature of Twitter drives me bonkers.

Anyway, McCutchen is clearly a shell of his salad days, but he's going to play. His best usage for fantasy is as a late outfielder, serving as a hedge to a high-upside guy. 

Reds sign Luke Weaver

How do you fan 38 in 35.2 innings while allowing just one home run but still register a 6.56 ERA and 1.82 WHIP?  I'm only a so-called expert, but I'm guessing it has something to do with a .429 BABIP and 58.6 percent LOB mark. Prior to last season, homers were a bugaboo for Weaver. Somehow, the Great American Ballpark doesn't feel like the ideal venue for Weaver to resurrect his career.

Cubs sign Trey Mancini

Here is the second half of the #FreeMattMervis narrative. With Eric Hosmer and Mancini in the fold, Mervis is ticketed to being the season with Triple-A Iowa.

As for Mancini, home run estimators suggest he was shortchanged in homers, even with the new dimensions in Camden Yards. After the deal to Houston, hit estimators pegged him for several knocks more than he collected. That is, last season's downturn may not have been as bad as it appears, making Mancini a good candidate for a bounceback campaign.

Red Sox sign Jorge Alfaro

Alfaro is the only minor-league signing to make this installment's list. Currently, the Red Sox have Reese McGuire and Connor Wong on their major league depth chart. Caleb Hamilton and Ronaldo Hernandez are both in the organization, but neither are on the 40-man roster. Alfaro's defense is lacking, but he can hit and is likely to earn an MLB job. He won't merit mixed-league attention, but Alfaro is in play for AL-only.

Mets sign Tommy Pham

After serving as a regular since 2017, Pham appears headed for fourth outfielder status with Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte patrolling the pasture in Queens. That said, Nimmo and Marte aren't bastions of health, so Pham should see significant action. When he's starting and playing nearly every day, Pham is worth a pickup, but he's no better than reserve fodder when all three Mets fly chasers are healthy.

Red Sox sign Adam Duvall

Duvall is a nice player with a decent glove. Is he an everyday center fielder? I don't know, especially in Fenway Park, where you have to both learn the wall and lend a hand to the right fielder, who's tasked with covering more ground than at any other park. At the plate, Duvall is a pull hitter who lofts an inordinately high number of flyballs. This is a perfect match for Fenway Park. However, it wouldn't be surprising if Duvall is replaced for defensive purposes later in games.

Brewers sign Brian Anderson

Color me intrigued. One of Anderson's strengths is opposite field power, but loanDepot Park would have none of it. American Family Field, on the other hand, is more open to having Anderson pop one out the other way. Those hoping for Brice Turang to play a lot will have to wait, as Anderson is earmarked for the hot corner, pushing Luis Urias to the keystone.

Royals sign Aroldis Chapman

Grumble, grumble. I'd like to think Scott Barlow is safe and Chapman's trade value will be built up in lower-leverage scenarios, but who knows? That said, I'll take any discount on Barlow.

Mariners sign Tommy La Stella

The only season La Stella played regularly was the pandemic campaign. He's battled injuries since, but he was still more of a platoon guy with the Giants, a team that favors exploiting matchups. With the Mariners, La Stella could get some designated hitter at-bats, but the infield is solid. AL Only? Yeah, why not.

If you've made it through all four of these missives, thank you. Let's call this the end of the impromptu series. We'll have any remaining move covered, but if you want my serious (or not so serious) take, please feel free to inquire in the discussion section of any of the four pieces or anything else I write here. I get an email prompt, regardless.

OK, it's back to the laboratory, with a return of the Z Files on deck.