Top MLB Betting Picks for July 3: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-0 ( +2.25 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 78-82-1 (-8.16 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Thursday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Bullpen Rankings (updated 7/1/25; xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Braves, Orioles, Padres, Astros, Brewers, Rays, Rangers, Pirates, Cardinals, Twins). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Nationals, Phillies, Reds, Blue Jays, Rockies, Mariners, Angels, Tigers, Guardians, White Sox). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Betting Insights
One of the biggest edges you can find in handicapping baseball is when a team has a significant edge, good or bad, on their splits. The biggest one is usually when they face left-handed pitching. You have teams that either crush lefties, and then there are teams that struggle mightily. We have that in this game where the Brewers crush left-handed pitching, while the Mets struggle against southpaws.
The Mets rank dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days (233 at-bats), and the Brewers rank second (149) with 214 at-bats. That is a pretty significant difference in splits. David Peterson and Jose Quintana rank about even on the season.
This is not reflected in the line, as it would be closer to -120 to -130 for the Mets if it was, and the Brewers are playing better baseball right now.
Give me the road 'dog at a pretty good price with the Brewers.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +136)
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San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets and Predictions
The Giants are not playing great baseball right now, but this is more about the starting pitching matchup between LHP Robbie Ray and RHP Brandon Pfaadt.
Ray has a 2-3 record with a 2.85 ERA in his last seven starts, where Pfaadt has a whopping 8.48 ERA over his last 28.2 innings. Ray has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 out of his 17 starts.
I will roll with the road 'dog at a pretty good price.
MLB Best Bets: Giants ML for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
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New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
Similar to the Giants/Diamondbacks, we have a significant difference in starting pitching with Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt against Blue Jays RHP Chris Bassitt. The Yankees are not playing great baseball right now, but Schmidt has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last six weeks. He has allowed zero runs in four out of his last seven starts. Bassitt got rocked in his last start against the Red Sox, coughing up eight earned runs in just two innings.
MLB Best Bets: Yankees ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -125)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Brewers ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +136)
- Giants ML for 1 unit (BetRivers -118)
- Yankees ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -125)
