This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for June 17: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.12 units)
Season 68-69-1 (-3.36 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Road Favorites - Phillies -200 at Marlins, Cardinals -150 at White Sox
Home Favorites (Largest) - Yankees -250 vs Angels, Dodgers -215 vs Padres, Tigers -195 vs Pirates
Totals - Astros/Athletics 10.5, Dodgers/Padres 9.5-10.0
Guardians/Giants 7.0-7.5, Mariners/Red Sox 7.5
MLB Line Movement
Rockies -23, Tigers -16, Marlins -15
6 games have moved down 0.5 runs, 2 games have moved up 0.5 runs
Bullpen Rankings (updated 6/17/25)
Top 10 (Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Padres, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Cubs, Blue Jays). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Dbacks, Rockies, A's, Nationals, Braves, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Reds). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Insights
You know how I roll with MLB handicapping. I look at the pitching matchups and focus on the one with the combination of two best pitchers for the UNDER play of the day. I will then focus on the matchup with the two worst starting pitchers for the OVER play of the day.
This one is by far the OVER play of the day with Randy Vasquez against Matt Sauer. The Dodgers' pitching situation is an injury-riddled mess and Vasquez is finally starting to see the regression that I saw coming in April. Vasquez just faced the Dodgers on June 11th going 4.2 innings only allowing 1 earned run which was a homerun. But his home run rate and lack of strikeouts make this a bad combination against this Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers' bullpen is pretty gassed, so they will have to mix and match a lot tonight.
TRENDS
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers' last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers' last 10 games against San Diego.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers' last 5 games at home.
This one is already hitting 10.0 and 10.5 in some spots, so follow the money.
I will have another play on this game in my bonus parlay as the Dodgers being -200 is CRAZY, but the Padres getting +1.5 runs at close to even money is the way to go.
MLB Best Bets: Padres/Dodgers OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -118)
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St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Tracking lines is a good way to get an indication on game script, and in this cas,e we have the White Sox F5 +105 vs Full Game +122. This is all based on the White Sox bullpen.
Shane Smith has been a great pitcher for the White Sox and represents great value as a home dog for plus money.
He has been the second-best F5 pitcher in baseball - Profit of +$517.24 with a 7-3-3 record (70.0% winning percentage).
Matthew Liberatore has started to regress in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs for a 10.29 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 2.6 HR/9.
The White Sox bullpen is not to be trusted so they are a F5 only play.
MLB Best Bets: White Sox F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
The best pitching matchup of the day between Spencer Schwellenbach and David Peterson gives us a nice total of 8.5, which is at least 0.5-1.0 runs too high off my projections.
Schwellenbach is coming off a gem of a performance against the Brewers in which he went the complete game, allowing 2 earned runs, 5 hits, 0 walks, and 9 strikeouts. Peterson himself is coming off a complete game as well, allowing 0 earned runs, 6 hits, 0 walks, and 6 strikeouts.
These two teams have been trending OVER, but the series is trending UNDER in 7 out of the last 10 games between them. I have this as Braves 4-3.
MLB Best Bets: Mets/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -110)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Padres/Dodgers OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -118)
- White Sox F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Mets/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -110)
- BONUS PARLAY
- Nationals -1.5 runs, Reds -125, Rays -120 for 0.25 unit to win 1.62 units (DraftKings +550)
- Reds/Twins UNDER 9.0, Royals/Rangers UNDER 8.5, , Padres +1.5 runs for 0.25 unit to win 1.64 (DraftKings +557)
