This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for June 19: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.65 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 69-71-1 (-5.01 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Thursday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Road Favorites - Cardinals -160 at White Sox,
Home Favorites (Largest) - Tigers -300 vs Pirates, Yankees -270 vs Angels, Dodgers -250 vs Padres
Totals - Astros/Athletics 10.0-10.5, Yankees/Angels 9.5, Nationals/Rockies 9.5
Pirates/Tigers 6.5-7.0
MLB Line Movement
Reds -22, Yankees -20, Giants -18, Orioles -19, A's -20
5 games have dropped 0.5 runs, 2 games have increased 0.5 runs
Bullpen Rankings (updated 6/17/25)
Top 10 (Twins, Red Sox, Astros, Padres, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Guardians, Cubs, Blue Jays). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Dbacks, Rockies, A's, Nationals, Braves, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, Reds). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Betting Insights
We get a slate with two of the best pitchers in baseball with Pirates RHP Paul Skenes and Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal, but they will not be facing each other, which is a shame. But, this does provide us with some plays, as I will always gravitate to the best starting pitching on the board first.
Skenes will be facing RHP Keider Montero in the second game of the doubleheader Thursday, and we should see some weaker lineups in the second end, which should help the total go under. Skenes has history against the Tigers, with a start on May 29, 2024 where he went six innings, allowing two earned runs and a walk with nine strikeouts.
The one thing that concerns me about Montero is the five homeruns allowed across his past two outings. The Pirates have won four out of the last five Skenes starts with three straight under results.
Laying -140 is a tad over my threshold, but I cannot lay -1.5 runs with the Pirates, who have trouble scoring, not to mention their bullpen issues. I'm going to lay -1 runs on the alternate line, and hope that it does not push.
MLB Best Bets: Pirates -1.0 run for 1 unit (DraftKings -111); Pirates/Tigers UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +100)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers Best Bets and Predictions
Tarik Skubal at home is printing money, and I will continue to go back to it. You just need to find different ways to work the numbers, because -325 is not going to cut it.
Skubal's numbers in his last four starts are mind boggling - 30.2 innings, one earned run, 32 strikeouts, two walks, 0.29 ERA, and 0.55 WHIP. His last four out of five home starts have gone under, and the Pirates are averaging just 3.1 runs per game over their last 10. Detroit is 16-4 SU in his last 20 home starts, and the Under is 8-1-1 in the last 10.
Pirates LHP Andrew Heaney has been decent for the Pirates enough to where I think he can keep this total in check. The only issue is the six home runs he has allowed in his last four starts.
MLB Best Bets: Pirates/Tigers UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -104)
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
I am actually in Atlanta for my son's baseball tournament, and will be at this game in person, so you know I had to give out a pick! I have been fading Braves RHP Spencer Strider with the intent of once he does turn it around, I can start looking at taking him.
Now is the time, as Strider was lights out in his last start against the Rockies, going six innings with 13 strikeouts. On the other side, Mets RHP Clay Holmes has been solid, but I do not like the amount of home runs, as he has served up nine long balls in his past seven outings.
MLB Best Bets: Mets/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -115)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- GM 2 Pirates -1.0 run for 1 unit (DraftKings -111)
- GM 2 Pirates/Tigers UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +100)
- GM 1 Pirates/Tigers UNDER 7 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -104)
- Mets/Braves UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -115)
