This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Washington vs USC
Oklahoma couldn't bring it home for us last night, despite a Kyson Witherspoon gem. It is what it is. Today's a new day and I got a solid late-night look for the team. After nearly a plus four unit Thursday, let's travel out west.
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USC Trojans (-145) @ Washington Huskies (+114) | Total: 9.5
The first feature of the Washington Huskies in this column this year comes against a team I've only discussed once, the USC Trojans. The move to the Big 10 has changed a lot for these teams as they were dead fish a year ago in the PAC 12, but are now firmly entrenched as top five teams in the conference. It's an extremely important series, where the Huskies took G1, as it may determine a tourney bid for one of the final four qualified teams.
Caden Aoki's Command: A Crucial Factor for USC Success
The Trojans are on the cusp with 17 Big 10 wins. After a game one loss, they send their best arm to the bump in Caden Aoki, who has been mostly great this season. The 4.68 ERA seems a bit bloated on the surface, which is why his 3.05 SIERA provides a better picture of how well he's done. For Aoki, his code is pristine command. The 70 K's to only 9 walks in 74.2 innings has been a staple of his game. It's been a few awful outings that have slightly skewed his stat lines and perception.
Washington Huskies' Speed: A Potential Game-Changer
For the Huskies' offense, it's not much power or hit tool, but it's a lot of speed (88 bags in 115 attempts). The 55 homers results in having none of their bats in double figures. In the post Aiva Arquette era, Washington has a few key contributors rolling right now with Casen Taggert (.335 avg/.989 OPS), Braeden Terry (.321 avg/.909 OPS), and AJ Guerrero (.317 avg/.924 OPS). Clearly, keeping the baserunners to minimum is the primary objective for Aoki, so if the command remains strong, it could do exactly that.
The Huskies Max Banks has been automatic as a Friday guy, which is why they've won nearly every one of his Big 10 outings, but the Saturday guy Jackson Thomas hasn't been quite to that level. His 4.35 ERA is decent, though his 1.44 WHIP is high. The 46 K/24 BB ratio in 62 IP isn't exactly dominant, so Thomas is susceptible to getting hit around. The Trojan offense does a bit of everything, but nothing spectacular. Their .293 average, 62 HR, and 48 steals have allowed some capability to produce runs.
Ethan Hedges is certainly the guy for USC. His .347 average, 12 bops, and 1.082 OPS pace the Trojan lineup. Most of the starters in the lineup are .300 or better hitters, so with multiple different sources of production, this offense should be able to get after Thomas.
The price is fair here with USC drifting from -130 to -145, and in a rebound spot that's where I'm going.
Pick: USC ML -145 (DK)
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