MLB World Series Game 3 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, October 28

MLB World Series Game 3 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, October 28

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB World Series Game 3 Best Bets: New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in the third game of this seven-game World Series. The Dodgers won the first two games at home with a thriller to end the first game.  Freddie Freeman hit a grand slam with the Dodgers down one run in extra innings to win the game. It was one of the most insane games I have ever watched in my lifetime. The Dodgers carried the momentum from the first game into the second game. Yoshinobu Yamamoto absolutely dealt, allowing just one run on one hit to Juan Soto in his entire outing. The Dodgers hit a few home runs courtesy of Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman, and they never looked back. The Yankees finally made a game of it in the ninth inning when they got the score to 4-2 and loaded the bases with one out. They had the bottom of their lineup up, though, with a struggling Anthony Volpe at the plate. He swung at a pitch way off the plate and didn't have a productive at bat. Then an ice-cold Austin Wells was due up and the Dodgers went to their bullpen for a lefty. Aaron Boone went with Jose Trevino as the pinch hitter and he swung at the first pitch, hitting a fly ball to the outfield and the game was over. It was too little too late for the Yankees. They had the entire game to attempt a comeback but only showed any urgency in the last inning. The Dodgers now have a commanding 2-0 lead, winning both home games. Now the series is guaranteed to either end in New York with a Dodgers win or get back to Los Angeles, at the very minimum.

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Clarke Schmidt is taking on Walker Buehler in Game 3 tonight in New York. Schmidt had a great regular season. He was injured for a good chunk of it but he had pitched very well whenever he was healthy. He had pitched in one postseason before this season but just as a reliever. He made his first postseason starts earlier this month and he was solid in his two outings. He made both starts on the road and allowed two runs across 4.2 innings pitched to both the Royals and Guardians. He only threw 71 and 78 pitches in those two starts, so clearly Boone is trying to avoid having him face certain batters in the lineup the third time through. Buehler will be opposing him on the mound tonight and he has tons of postseason experience. This will be his third start this postseason – all on the road. He was lit up in his first start against the Padres, allowing six runs in five innings pitched. He gave up most of those runs early in that game, though, before powering through the game to get 15 outs for the Dodgers. In his most recent start, he only pitched four innings, but he did not allow a run in those four innings to the Mets. He also had six strikeouts in those four innings after not recording a single strikeout in his first start this postseason.

This is a must-win game for a Yankees team down 2-0. They are going to need certain hitters to wake up to win this game. The Dodgers have so many hitters flourishing right now while the Yankees have guys like Aaron Judge and Austin Wells struggling hard.  Judge has been just about non-existent these entire playoffs, and the Yankees won't be able to win this series without him.  I don't know if he will break out of his slump today, but I think this is the game where we finally see some role players step up for the Yankees. It can't be just Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton producing runs every game for the Yankees. The rest of the lineup needs to do something. The Yankees will treat this like a must-win game, deploying their bullpen as soon as they see any trouble, while the Dodgers have the luxury of not needing to overextend their bullpen if they get into any trouble.

Best MLB Bet Today

Yankees ML (-146 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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