Previous day: 1-2, -0.70 RW Bucks
Season: 21-24-3, -5.38 RW Bucks
We have a split Thursday slate, but in search of some solid value, my attention is focused on a pair of evening contests. We have a Marlins team as a big home favorite carrying too heavy a price for a moneyline wager, but offering an appealing opportunity when it comes to the run line. Then, a road underdog at plus money out west is also very much under consideration given the pitching matchup.
Colorado Rockies 
at Miami Marlins 
7:10 pm Eastern
Starting Pitchers: Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Trevor Rogers
The Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+100) for 1 RWBuck
Gonzalez grabs a spot start Thursday and brings a bloated 4.84 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into the matchup, with those figures sitting at 6.33 and 1.44 when accounting for his road split. The Marlins are naturally far from offensive juggernauts, but they've posted a .262 average and .335 OBP against righties at home over the last month. Moreover, it's worth noting 12 of Miami's 13 home wins have been by two runs or more, while the Rockies are an MLB-worst 4-23 straight up on the road and sport a .181 average and .293 wOBA against lefties on the road going into their matchup against the dominant Rogers.
Kansas City Royals 
at Oakland Athletics 
9:40 pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Mike Minor vs. Frankie Montas
The Pick: Royals moneyline (+130) for 1 RWBuck
Minor sports a 1.5 HR/9 after giving up three home runs to the Twins in his most recent start, but he's got a legitimate chance at atonement Thursday. The veteran southpaw has a .188 BAA and impressive 11.8 K/9 on the road, along with a solid 3.12 ERA and .289 wOBA allowed. The Athletics are also good targets for him, as they've posted a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, .196 average, -6.1 wRAA and .251 wOBA against lefties in their spacious home park over the last month (128 plate appearances).
Montas' season thus far can't be classified as anything but a disappointment, considering he's carrying a 4.52 ERA, 1.6 HR/9 and has been particularly poor at home with a 5.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 40.2 innings. The Royals are good at generating consistent contact and making pitchers work, and current KC bats own a .859 OPS collectively against Montas over 43 career encounters. Additionally, the A's bullpen checks in allowing a .304 average and .351 wOBA thus far in June.
