This article is part of our DFS Basketball 101 series.
Evaluating individual matchups is part of most DFS strategies, and often one of the most fun aspects of creating a lineup. NBA DFS is certainly no different in this regard. When preparing a daily fantasy basketball lineup, examining which positions teams struggle to defend certainly helps in determining which matchups to target.
However, as with many other aspects of DFS research, there's a bit more to Defense vs. Position (DvP) than just evaluating the raw data. The devil is often in the details, as they say, and not taking that extra step when performing your due diligence can frequently lead to missed opportunities to maximize the scoring potential of a lineup. Accordingly, let's take a look at some of the different aspects of using DvP to build winning combinations in NBA DFS.
The Basics of DvP
When it comes time to drill down further and examine matchups at a positional level, RotoWire has you covered with a thorough overview of data through the Defense vs. Position page. The information on this page is updated daily, and there are even specific breakdowns of the average fantasy points allowed by each team to each position over the season, last five games and last 10 games for DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyAces.
As a season unfolds, defense vs. position trends tend to be increasingly reliable. Teams often face a formidable challenge when it comes to trying to upgrade defense mid-season, unless they get a key player back from an injury or make a pivotal trade that nets them help in that regard. However, the aforementioned breakdown by different time increments helps to highlight any discrepancies that could reveal a recent notable improvement or regression.
Individual Player Skill Sets and DvP
Another way to refine your DvP research is by knowing the particular skill sets of different players and looking at the defense vs. position data to hone in on your selection. For example, when looking at the rankings on the aforementioned RotoWire DvP page, you'll note that there is a breakdown that includes average number of blocks, steals, three-pointers, etc. given up to each position by each team.
Say you've identified two strong point guard candidates but only one spot to fill. Both guys are up against teams that are about as weak as the other in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position, but you take note that one of the defenses is particularly vulnerable to giving up three-pointers to the position. If the player you're considering is a proficient from long distance, that could be your tie-breaker, as that piece of data helps you maximize your potential upside in that matchup.
Offensive vs. Defensive Fantasy Points
Along similar lines, another often under-the-radar aspect of evaluating DvP information is the difference between offensive and defensive fantasy points allowed. This is an important distinction rather unique to NBA DFS, and applying it correctly can help prevent the often costly mistake of deeming a matchup as favorable based solely on the raw number of fantasy points allowed to a position.
For example, say a team allows a high number of fantasy points per game. However, when digging deeper and examining the average number of rebounds, steals and blocks that they yield, you may discover that a larger-than-expected portion of the fantasy production comes from these non-scoring categories. In other words, the team may not actually rank as low overall in terms of actual points and assists allowed to the position per game because their biggest weakness comes in surrendering defensive production.
Therefore, even when identifying a player who appears to have a highly appealing matchup, take a closer look at how well the major sources of the player's fantasy production dovetail with the opposing defense's weakness. This could help you filter out a matchup that isn't as appealing as originally believed, and potentially steer you in the direction of another on the slate that may ultimately be more rewarding.
DvP Home/Road Splits
Examining DvP home/road splits is yet another vehicle for enhancing the precision of your daily fantasy basketball research. There are various online sources that can point you to the fantasy points per minute that each team surrenders to each position in both settings, which can help spot important trends. While a defensive weak spot is generally a defensive weak spot irrespective of where the game is played, there are certain instances when inefficiency is magnified either at home or on the road.
Conclusion
While it can certainly be risky to be overly reliant on DvP at the exclusion of other research metrics, it can serve as a very enlightening benchmark, particularly as an NBA season unfolds. DvP can help you to build a solid core or foundation for a cash or tournament lineup, but always be mindful of getting a full picture of the data before making that final click on a player. With only five starters, one key injury can significantly change the outlook for a team on any given night, so being abreast of the latest news always helps ensure that a team's current circumstances mirror the ones that have led to their season-long defensive ranking against a position.
