This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Saturday presents a four-game playoff slate for us to choose from with only one of those contests potentially ending the series (here's looking at you, Milwaukee). There's no particular reason I ended up not choosing any props between UTA/MEM, there just didn't seem to be any value relative to the rest of the matchups. Without further ado, let's go over the props and try to shoot a better percentage than Jimmy Butler.
Points Props
The loss of Donte DiVincenzo (foot) is going to be one of those things casual fans just don't realize the importance of, but the third-year guard's defense has been invaluable for Milwaukee. Bryn Forbes figures to get the start Saturday and while I highly doubt he vacuums up all the additional minutes left behind, he should play enough to put 11.5 points (-106) easily in range, especially considering he's toyed with that number despite averaging 18 minutes across the series thus far. There weren't any offerings on Pat Connaughton, but if you are able to find props for the combo guard in any sportsbooks, I do think Planet Pat is going to absorb the majority of the time, and thus have an opportunity for additional production.
We got burned on this one last Saturday but I'm back with a more automatic scenario. Facundo Campazzo hasn't quite seen his rebound figures take the rise you'd expect despite playing three games against Portland, but he's been scoring well enough to put over 19.5 points+rebounds+assists (-103) in play. Other than Game 1 when Campazzo attempted just four shots, the 30-year-old rookie has gone over that PRA in each of the last two games by a comfortable margin.
Rebounds/Assists Props
It wasn't quite automatic enough to toss into the parlay builder section, but I do believe Jusuf Nurkic is in a prime position to register a double-double (-167). The center has posted a double-double in two of the three series games, and the only one he missed came after shooting just 2-of-8 from the field which feels unlikely to occur again.
There's going to be a point where Damian Lillard has an "all-world" game, but I'm willing to bet that won't occur Saturday, or at the very least he'll continue the recent trend of struggling on the glass. In four games against the Nuggets (remember they played against them in the last regular-season game too) Lillard has recorded four rebounds just once, so under 4.5 rebounds (-136) absolutely feels in play.
If you take a sneak peek at the parlay builder section I'm fairly certain the 76ers are going to win, so I'm also on board with Tobias Harris going over 6.5 rebounds (-105). He seems to be probable entering Game 3 after sustaining an ankle injury last time out, so while I don't think the injury is going to limit him in any way, it's entirely possible the 76ers keep him out should they race ahead. Even if they do, Harris had nine rebounds in only 23 minutes Wednesday and I suspect another heavy Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons game will allow for Harris to soak up a couple of additional boards.
Sticking in the same game, I'm always hunting for plus odds so I was interested to see Danny Green over/under 1.5 assists (over,+100). The veteran sharpshooter has gotten exactly two assists in each of the previous two contests, but more importantly, he's seeing enough minutes where he's going to naturally be in a position to pile up more counting stats. Green only averaged 1.7 assists this season so at some point the under is going to hit, but for plus money, it's not a terrible gamble by any means.
Parlay Builders
- PHI to win (at WAS) (-286)
- Rudy Gobert double-double (-500)
Best Bets
- Facundo Campazzo over 19.5 PRA (-103)
- Jusuf Nurkic double-double (-167)
