This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Saturday's slate felt like a perfect encapsulation of the NBA season to date -- top teams trying to navigate a shortened offseason while still vaguely attempting to act like the regular season matters, while the large flotsam in the middle of the NBA standings still attempts to uncover their team's identity. Generally speaking, you tend to have the most success early on in a given sports season betting props as the sportsbooks take time to uncover the numbers that make lines closer and closer to the final product. We're not really getting that sort of benefit this go around despite the NBA season being only one month old. In any case, a whopping 12 games Wednesday should allow us a bit more freedom to target the best bets and hopefully, solidify a topsy-turvy season.
Points Props
Sometimes it's best to take advantage of negative trends with the idea a turnaround is in the works. I don't really care for the odds, but taking the over on Collin Sexton's 20.5 points (-152) is a perfect example to target. I don't feel great about this as a parlay filler necessarily, at least not relative to a few other options lower in this piece, but prior to the last two games, Sexton has hit this over in all but one other game this season. The Pistons play at such an annoyingly slow pace and are just inefficient offensively so there's always a concern Sexton just might not get a ton of opportunities, but this is an easy enough matchup for the young point guard to exploit.
There are times where I like to bet the odds which can be problematic when the deadline for submitting these pieces is much earlier than a final prop-bet slate, but at the moment Cole Anthony scoring more than 13.5 points (+100) for even money is a tempting option. The Kings are woefully bad at defending the backcourt and Anthony has been getting more involved in the Magic's offense as of late, attempting double-digit shots in six of the last eight games after hitting that mark just three times in the first eight games of his career. If this moves down to -120 or DraftKings boosts the scoring total in the 14.5 range I'm out, but right now is a perfect landing spot for a buying opportunity.
Sticking in the same game is perhaps my favorite bet of the night and one I discussed in Wednesday's NBA Handicapping. If you're looking for a more sure thing, targeting Evan Fournier's 17.5-point over (-120) is great, but I like the better odds of the o24.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110). To reiterate; the Kings are very, very bad at defending the backcourt and for a game that has a relatively high total (O/U223.5) for a 12-game slate, I'm anticipating a lot of points. Fournier has been dynamic since his return from a lengthy back-related absence and I don't see that stopping Wednesday.
Rounding out this section is two lower-floor props that I think should hit. o9.5 (-134) -- If he fails me again I'm just going to put together a KCP Anonymous group afterward, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should score over 9.5 points (-134) against the league's worst defense (by a noticeable margin) against shooting guards.
The same type of reasoning has me interested in Gary Harris scoring over 9.5 points (-110), almost in the same type of confidence way despite KCP being noticeably higher. The Heat are still missing a ton of regular bodies and while the Nuggets are getting a number of their rotational depth back from injuries, it hasn't drastically cut into Harris' minutes. That Harris has hit this over each of the last four games gives me just a slight bit more comfort entering Wednesday's tip off.
Assists/Rebounds Props
You know the deal now with Jerami Grant; always bet the over. In this case, I think targeting the 31.5 PRA (-134) is the best bang for your buck. The Cavs aren't great at defending small forwards and we all know Grant is a critical focal point of Detroit's whole being....which explains why they are so bad. The rebounds and assists give a safer floor as opposed to the points over, which DraftKings almost mercifully has pushed up where it's not an automatic every night.
Weirdly, I feel relatively confident Montrezl Harrell will fail to reach his rebounding over (6.5, under -110). Harrell is only averaging 24.8 minutes this season and has registered less than seven rebounds in six of the last seven games. He's been close a number of times which is why I wouldn't be tossing this into a parlay, but the 76ers are also really good at limiting offensive rebounds which is theoretically where Harrell would hit the over on this figure.
It's -200 for a reason, but James Harden hitting a double-double is my favorite parlay builder for the night. Since joining the Nets he's registered a double-double in all but one game and has two triple-doubles. Because of the Nets' lack of depth Harden basically has to be out there 24/7 making this a relatively easy mark to hit.
Aaron Gordon has gone over his rebounding total (8.5, +100) in four straight games and matches up against the Kings who aren't exactly world-beaters when it comes to the defensive glass. The same goes for targeting Mikal Bridges 5.5 rebounds over (+125) with the Thunder also struggling in that category against shooting guards.
Best Bets
- Collin Sexton over 20.5 points (-152)
- Evan Fournier over 24.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
- Gary Harris over 9.5 points (-110)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 9.5 points (-110)
- Montrezl Harrell under 6.5 rebounds (-110)
- James Harden to record double-double (-200)
