This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We're back to our regularly scheduled programming with two DraftKings Sportsbook breakdowns for this week. A 10-game Wednesday slate should provide plenty of bargains although props for Clippers/Cavs and Wizards/Heat were not available as of this writing.
Points Props
Long-time readers of the column know that I tend to steer away from large O/U totals just because so many things have to go right, generally, in order for the over to hit, but I think for Wednesday there's a decent bit of value for some of these numbers. First on the docket is over 26.5 points for Joel Embiid (-105). The 26-year-old center has been on a tear this season averaging close to 32 points per game with a couple of low-minute blowout losses lowering the per-game averages. It's worth pointing out the Hornets have held Embiid to some of his lowest scoring totals of the season (14 and 19 points, respectively), but both of those contests came within the first two weeks of the season as the All-Star was ramping up his conditioning. So long as Embiid plays, I just don't see how he misses this figure.
The same goes for Devin Booker over 23.5 points (-110) against the Pelicans. This might be one of the few times we see Booker's O/U so low as the guard is expected (he's technically listed as probable) to make just his second start after a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury. The Pelicans allow the third-most points to opposing shooting guards but most importantly, they allow a ton of 3-point attempts to guards which should only benefit the Kentucky product.
The Pelicans/Suns game in general seems to be a decent game to target from a props-bet perspective as I'm also tempted by Deandre Ayton's double-double bet (-278). If Steven Adams (questionable, calf) plays I think you could probably get this figure even lower, but as it stands I think Ayton reaches a double-double regardless if for no other reason than he's hit that mark in seven of the last eight games.
That being said, it wouldn't be a props-bet article without taking the under on one large points total, and I think the best value comes from Brandon Ingram under 22.5 points (-110). A couple of things play into this thought process. First and foremost, the Suns are excellent at stopping opposing small forwards compared to the rest of the league, and I think if Adams were unable to play, we'd likely see a combination of Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernangomez taking over at center as opposed to sliding Ingram and Zion Williamson down. That matters because I think Zion can take advantage of the Cameron Johnson/Jae Crowder combo which should soak up some additional shots. It should be worth noting Ingram's season-low 13 points came against the Suns back in late December, but he played just 28 minutes in a blowout loss.
There's a bunch of other smaller o/u that I think are worth targeting. If you're looking for a guaranteed parlay filler, Clint Capela hitting a double-double (-335) is a guaranteed lock in my mind. The over on his points (14.5, -134) is also reasonable considering the Mavs allow the most points to centers in the entire league.
Immanuel Quickley scoring over 15.5 points is intriguing (-110) considering the Bulls allow a ton of points to opposing point guards and Elfrid Payton is slowly being phased out of the starting lineup (just an average of 20.8 minutes over the last four games), but hell hath no fury like head coach Tom Thibodeau and a random emerging rookie on his team.
Rounding out this section is perhaps my two favorite bets of the entire slate. First mentioned in Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday Edition, I feel incredibly confident Daniel Gafford hits his 10.5 points/rebounds/assists (PRA) over of 10.5 (-110). Forget that it's a stupidly low floor to hit for a player getting likely 20-plus minutes, but the one chink in the Knicks improving defense has been opposing centers. The fact that Gafford blew through that number (12 points, nine rebounds) in his first start with Wendell Carter (quadriceps) out against these very same Knicks only reinforces my confidence.
Taking the under for Lonnie Walker's 10.5 points (-110) also feels like a no-brainer. The Timberwolves do alright against opposing shooting guards, at least relative to the rest of their putrid defense, but this is more of a bet on Walker's minutes subsiding with the return of Derrick White (toe). In the past two games with White a part of the rotation, Walker is averaging 20.8 minutes to go along with 8.0 points. You could also take the under on the PRA total (15.5) but it gives you the same odds so I'd rather focus on the points assuming Walker will simply be less of an offensive focal point.
Rebounds/Assists Props
These are primarily just targets based on season averages, but I'm intrigued by a few of them. Of note, taking the under on Bobby Portis' 6.5 rebounds (-110) is interesting to say the least. It's a bit surprising considering the Pacers' rotation, but Indiana does allow the third-most rebounds to centers so there's risk to this bet. However, Portis' minutes tend to be less against quality competition (16.7 minutes per game with the Bucks in the seven games within 10 points) and his rebounding figures have not coincidentally been down in those types of games (6.4 compared to 7.5 season average).
Ben Simmons also seems primed to hit his assist over (7.5, -107). Simmons' 7.9 season average doesn't really give a lot of wiggle room, but the Hornets allow a league-high 9.3 assists-per-game to opposing point guards and I think the natural byproduct of a big Embiid game (see above) would be Simmons feeding assists. The fact the Hornets allow so many extra 3-point attempts should also give a couple of extra assist opportunities, too.
Sticking in the same game, I like Gordon Hayward getting over 5.5 rebounds (-121). The return of Cody Zeller (hand) has siphoned away some of the boards (4.5 per game over the last four games with Zeller playing 30-plus minutes) but the 76ers allow a third-most rebounds to small forwards and PJ Washington (foot) only aids the bet further.
I love this bet from an odds perspective simply because the Timberwolves struggle significantly against opposing centers, and over 7.5 rebounds (+105) for Keldon Johnson is really nice value. With LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) out, I anticipate Johnson occupies more of the big-man minutes than Jakob Poeltl which should make the over an easy hit, to the point where I'd even consider taking the double-double odds (+290). The second-year big man has went over 7.5 rebounds in three of the last four games he's played at least 28 minutes, but the one time he missed that figure was against the Wizards who are literally the worst team in the NBA against opposing centers, so it isn't necessarily a lock. Still, it's easily among my top three favorite bets of the Wednesday slate especially with Aldridge out.
Best Bets
- Daniel Gafford over 10.5 points/rebounds/assists (-110)
- Lonnie Walker under 10.5 points (-110)
- Keldon Johnson over 7.5 rebounds (+105)
- Clint Capela/Deandre Ayton both get double-doubles (-132)
