FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

After 20 games over the previous two nights, the NBA takes a bit of a breather with only three games on the Sunday night main slate, all which stand to be competitive considering how shorthanded the Lakers will be. The narrower pool of players naturally makes lineup building and differentiation a bit more challenging than usual, but there are still plenty of options at every part of the salary scale.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games: 

Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors (Projected total: 231.5 points)

The Trail Blazers are allowing the fourth-most points per game (115.4), as well as the second-highest shooting percentage (48.1). The Raptors are giving up 112.2 points per contest in their own right, and these teams combined for 223 points the first time they met this season. Damian Lillard's uncertain status for this game due to a knee injury certainly has an effect on this total, as this number could naturally bump up should he be declared available at some point leading to tip-off.  (UPDATE: Lillard has been declared as available and the total has bumped up three points)

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets (Projected total: 222.0 points) 

These squads combined for 238 points in their one prior meeting this year, so this total may actually prove to be a bit low. Not only are both teams at full health in terms of their stars, there's a chance Aaron Gordon makes his team debut for Denver. The Hawks and Nuggets have both displayed improved defense of late, as each is now allowing under 111.0 points per contest. However, Denver does still surrender the league's 10th-highest shooting percentage (47.0) and both sides rank in the top half of the NBA in points scored per game (Nuggets-115.6 PPG/ Hawks-112.7 PPG). 

Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers (Projected total: 208.0 points) 

Considering the Lakers are averaging 101.5 points per contest during the first four games of LeBron James' absence and the Magic are scoring the second-fewest points per game (102.2), this minuscule total makes sense. Both teams are also solid defensive teams, with Orlando allowing a respectable 111.3 points per game, while Los Angeles is yielding a Western Conference-low 106.3. Additionally, the Magic just traded away their three best scorers in Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, making them even more of a toothless attack.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

James' absence will continue to afford the likes of Dennis Schroder, Markieff Morris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Kuzma plenty of extra usage. 

Damian Lillard, POR (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE   (UPDATE: Lillard has now been declared available)

If Lillard sits out a second straight game, Norman Powell should be in for another turn with the first unit while CJ McCollum could once again function as the primary ball handler. 

Terrence Ross, ORL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Ross remains out, Dwayne Bacon should continue starting at shooting guard

Aaron Gordon, DEN (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Gordon makes his Nuggets debut, Paul Millsap could be relegated to a second-unit role. 

Other notable injuries: 

Wendell Carter, ORL (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Otto Porter, ORL (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

De'Andre Hunter, ATL (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Cam Reddish, ATL (Achilles)/ Status:  OUT 

Lou Williams, ATL (trade acquisition)/ Status: OUT 

Monte Morris, DEN (quadriceps)/ Status: OUT

Gary Clark, DEN (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

JaVale McGee, DEN (trade acquisition)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Elite Players

There's only one player with a five-figure salary on the slate with Nikola Jokic ($11,300) fitting the bill. The Joker scored 41.0 FD points in 37 minutes versus the Hawks in their first meeting this season and Atlanta has only allowed 34.9 FD points per game to centers on the season. As talented as Jokic is, he could have difficulty providing a truly strong return on salary. 

There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures free of injury designations who have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Trae Young ($8,700), Clint Capela ($8,500) and Pascal Siakam ($8,500)

Young racked up 64.7 FD points over 36 minutes against Denver the first time he saw them this season, while Capela totaled 36.5 across 32 minutes in that same game. Siakam supplied 52.6 FD points against the Trail Blazers in his prior meeting with them this year and could be in a strong position to outpace his current salary with a similar return.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the names just detailed in the Elite Players section, other likely chalk plays include Norman Powell, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington and Enes Kanter if Damian Lillard is out; Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Kuzma in particular with LeBron James still out; and the Magic's Chuma Okeke and Khem Birch based on recent performances.

Key Values  

Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. POR ($6,600)

Lowry's salary is way down with good reason, as he's scored under 30 FD points in three of the last five games. However, the veteran naturally offers much higher upside and has scored 33.2 to 52.2 FD points in the 10 other appearances over the last 13 contests. The Trail Blazers also represent excellent targets, having allowed the highest offensive efficiency to point guards on the season (32.3 percent) and the fifth-most FD points per game to ones over the last 10 games (55.7). Lowry enhances his already strong case by virtue of the fact he's delivered over 5x his current salary in 28 of 38 contests this season.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR at TOR ($5,200) 

Nurkic posted 22.6 FD points over 19 minutes in his return from a wrist injury Friday and may have logged even more playing time had he not run into foul trouble. He should be up over 20 minutes Sunday, and his salary isn't going to remain this low for long given his typical level of production. The Raptors have also allowed the ninth-most FD points per game to centers in the last 10 (39.0), making Nurkic an interesting tournament play to consider.

Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL at DEN ($4,200)

Bogdanovic has started to pick things up after a very slow start since coming back from a knee injury by shooting 53.6 percent - including 42.4 percent from three-point range - over the last five games while averaging 26.4 FD points during that span. That's a significant improvement from his first six games back in action, when he shot an abysmal 31.3 percent. Bogdanovic may also be catching the Nuggets at a good time, as Denver has allowed a 42.3 percent success rate from three-point range over the last three.

Other value plays to consider: Chuma Okeke, ORL at LAL ($5,300); Talen Horton-Tucker, LAL vs. ORL ($5,200); Markieff Morris, LAL vs. ORL ($4,400)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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