FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

There's a solid seven-game slate on tap Sunday night and betting lines seem to project mostly competitive matchups. The Suns are unsurprisingly the only double-digit favorite, but all other games seem to have a favorable chance of unfolding as wire-to-wire contests and carry very DFS-friendly projected totals.

Slate Overview

Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic (-5) (O/U: 227.0 points)

New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) (O/U: 236.0 points)

Phoenix Suns (-10) at Sacramento Kings (O/U: 231.5 points)

Utah Jazz (-5) at New York Knicks (O/U: 222.5 points)

Boston Celtics (-3) at Denver Nuggets (O/U: 221.5 points)

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) (O/U: 223.5 points)

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-6.5) (O/U: 229.0 points)

Nearly every game Sunday has a unique angle that could help lead to an environment conducive to some remarkable individual performances. The Thunder-Magic tilt features a combination of questionable defense and some explosive offensive players, and the same can certainly be said of the Pelican-Hawks battle. Meanwhile, the Knicks have played much better of late and could give some trouble to a Jazz team that's been upset a few times already this season.

The final three games of the night also offer an excellent chance of being critical to the success of DFS players in cash games and tournaments. The Celtics and Nuggets showdown could well turn out to be the best one of the slate, while the Raptors-76ers tilt should also be highly competitive, especially if Joel Embiid were to sit. And, the final game of the night carries no shortage of intrigue, considering Stephen Curry's absence for Golden State gives the Spurs a much better chance of hanging with the Warriors.

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.

Joel Embiid, PHI (back): QUESTIONABLE

If Embiid were to miss out, the usage for the remainder of the starting five would naturally see a sizable boost while DeAndre Jordan and Paul Millsap could see additional playing time.

Stephen Curry, GSW (foot): OUT

In Curry's absence, Jordan Poole is expected to draw the start at point guard while the usage for the remainder of the starting five should see a sizable boost.

Trae Young, ATL (quadriceps): QUESTIONABLE

If Young were to sit, Delon Wright would likely draw a start at point guard while the remainder of the first unit would see an increase in their usage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (ankle): QUESTIONABLE

If Gilgeous-Alexander can't go, Tre Mann would likely draw a start at point guard and other first-unit players would get more responsibility.

De'Aaron Fox, SAC (hand): QUESTIONABLE

If Fox can't suit up Sunday, Davion Mitchell could draw the start at point guard.

Brandon Ingram, NOP (hamstring): OUT

In Ingram's seventh consecutive absence, Naji Marshall or Devonte' Graham are likely to be a part of the first unit.

Other notable injuries:

Mike Conley, UTA (knee): OUT

Chris Paul, PHO (thumb): OUT

Devonte' Graham, NOP (hip): QUESTIONABLE

Zion Williamson, NOP (foot): OUT

OG Anunoby, TOR (finger): OUT

Josh Giddey, OKC (hip): OUT

John Collins, ATL (finger, foot): OUT

Cameron Johnson, PHO (quadriceps): OUT

Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA (calf): OUT

Elite Players

We have six players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Nikola Jokic ($11,300), Joel Embiid ($11,200), Dejounte Murray ($10,600), Trae Young ($10,400), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,200) and James Harden ($10,000).

Jokic has eclipsed 60 FD points in two straight and hasn't posted under 50 since March 2. He also scored 55.7 against the Celtics in his one prior encounter this season.

If Embiid can overcome his questionable status, he'll look to extend a streak of four consecutive outings with at least 50 FD points and build on the 56.2 he produced against the Raptors in his one prior encounter with them this year.

Murray dipped to 36.3 FD points in his most recent game but managed over 50 in seven straight before that.

Young's status will have to be carefully monitored due to the fact he's already missed one game with the quadriceps injury that's listing him as questionable Sunday.

Gilgeous-Alexander played through his ankle injury again Friday and put up 46.4 FD points across 32 minutes against the Heat, and his very favorable matchup against the Magic will make him very appealing again if he's cleared to go.

Harden racked up 57.4 FD points versus the Mavericks in his most recent game and scored 50 against the Raptors in his previous matchup game against them this season. Toronto is also ranked in the bottom-10 in offensive efficiency allowed to shooting guards.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Devin Booker, PHO ($9,600)

Booker had posted 46.8 or more FD points in four of the first five games he'd played since returning from COVID-19 protocols before dipping to 34.3 versus the Bulls, but he should be very popular given he boasts the upside of a five-figure-salaried player.

Pascal Siakam, TOR ($9,400)

Siakam saw a four-game streak of at least 49 FD points snapped in his most recent game, but he did record 50.2 in his one prior matchup with the Sixers.

Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,300)

Tatum is averaging just over 50 FD points in the last eight games while shooting 51.6 percent. 

Jordan Poole, GSW ($7,600)

Poole is expected to draw the start at point guard in place of Curry and has already dropped over 40 FD points in two of his last three games while running with the first unit.

Klay Thompson, GSW ($6,800)

Thompson should take on a heavier scoring role with Curry out, and the combination of a very reasonable salary and expanded usage should make him very popular.

Key Values 

Jaxson Hayes, NOP at ATL ($5,600)

Hayes has produced over 36 FD points in two of the last three and also managed a tally of 25 four games ago. The floor-spacing big man is shooting 63.6 percent - including 60.0 percent from three-point range - over the latter span while averaging 16.5 points and 5.8 rebounds. The Hawks make for great targets on paper, as they've allowed the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to power forwards (27.8 percent) and 48.1 FD points per game to the position. Atlanta has also allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage of any team on its home floor (36.8).

Harrison Barnes, SAC vs. PHO ($5,300)

Barnes' salary is particularly eye-catching, especially considering De'Aaron Fox could sit Sunday with a hand injury. The veteran wing shouldn't exactly be chalky, as he went scoreless over 24 minutes against the Celtics on Friday night, but he scored 33.2 and 37.8 FD points in two prior meetings with the Suns. Before a current two-game skid, Barnes had also averaged 31.7 FD points  while shooting 54.6 percent dating back to Feb. 2. Despite the tough positional matchup, he's an intriguing tournament play at a very reasonable salary.

Kevon Looney, GSW vs. SAS ($4,900)

As allude to earlier, both Poole and Thompson should be especially popular in Curry's absence and Draymond Green should also find himself in his fair share of lineups. However, Looney could make for an excellent value play in the same context, as he'll be much less rostered than his teammates. The big man has put together a career-best season in many respects, and although that hasn't necessarily equated to spectacular numbers by any stretch, Looney does come into Sunday averaging 27.8 FD points across his last six games. He's averaging 31.4 FD points per 36 minutes with Curry off the floor this year and has already registered one tally of 31.9 points against the Spurs. Meanwhile, San Antonio has experienced trouble slowing down centers, allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency (34.3 percent) to fives and fourth-most FD points per game (57.3) to the position.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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