This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Oddsmakers and bettors seemed to be highly skeptical of the possibility, but the Heat pulled off the improbable with a Game 6 upset at TD Garden after having scored just 162 combined points in Games 4 and 5. Jimmy Butler rewarded DFS players that stuck with him through two particularly difficult performances with a monster effort, and the Celtics, despite the loss, also had several useful DFS performances. In Sunday's Game 7, it's very possible we see the defenses and rotations tighten up even more than they already have been, which should make for an interesting night of DFS play.
With just one game on the ledger, we're dealing with FanDuel's single-game contest rosters, which are comprised as follows:
· MVP- (Garners points at 2x the normal rate)
· STAR- (Garners points at 1.5x the normal rate)
· PRO- (Garners points at 1.2x the normal rate)
· Two Utility spots- (Garner points at normal rate)
With salaries also being different than in conventional FanDuel contests on multi-game slates and top players inevitably headed for heavy rostering, there are definitely strategic elements particular to single-game lineups. Finding key value plays for the two utility spots is undoubtedly key, as it enables you to fill out the multiplier spots with some of the top projected producers.
Slate Overview
Boston Celtics (-2.5) at Miami Heat (Projected total: 195.5 points)
It's certainly worth noting the Celtics remain favored despite the home-court setting for the Heat and the results of Game 6, but that could well stem from a sense that had it not been for some early turnovers and what the NBA's Two-Minute Report has now identified as four critical incorrect calls against Boston in the final portion of the game conspired to give less talented/deeper team a narrow win. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown also may have inadvertently hurt their team by not being aggressive enough in the second half, as they finished with only 25 shot attempts between them, as they were both red-hot and shot a combined 60.0 percent.
The Heat may be one of the most top-heavy postseason teams in recent memory, as Miami seems to be fully reliant on Butler to even remain competitive. That much has been borne out over the last three games, with Butler's 7-for-32 showing over Games 4 and 5 coinciding with his team's lowest scores of the playoffs and with his gargantuan effort in Game 6 resulting in the Heat's second-highest total of the series. Therefore, from a DFS perspective, it will be difficult to count on anyone else on the Heat, especially with several others playing through injuries.
Positional Breakdown
FanDuel single-game rosters don't have traditional positions that match those on a starting five, so we'll instead break down some candidates for the top three multiplier positions instead:
MVP (2x): Jimmy Butler ($16,000) and Jayson Tatum ($15,500) remain as the clear-cut top candidates for this spot following their Game 6 efforts.
As already mentioned, Butler was an absolute must-have play Friday, as he compiled a jaw-dropping 83.8 FD points across 46 minutes. That more than made up for some of the previous clunkers, and with everything on the line in Game 7, he will certainly be as aggressive as possible, although it's also very conceivable the Celtics make plenty of adjustments to ensure there isn't a Game 6 repeat.
Tatum scored 48.8 FD points in 45 minutes in Game 6 and has scored over 40 in all but one of the first six games versus the Heat. He's shooting 46.9 percent overall in the series as well, and as noted earlier, he should be a lot more involved on offense in Game 7.
STAR (1.5x): Whichever of the two mega-stars mentioned above doesn't make your MVP spot is naturally the prime candidate here, but a case could also reasonably be made for Jaylen Brown ($14,000) and Al Horford ($13,000).
Brown was sharp again in Game 6, going 6-for-13 from the floor on his way to scoring 39.7 FD points. He's averaged 37.5 FD points overall in the series while shooting 48.1 percent, including 42.9 percent from behind the arc.
Horford dipped to 18.3 FD points in Game 6 with a 1-for-8 tally from the floor, but he scored 37.1 to 47.3 FD points in the previous three games and is averaging 32.7 FD points overall in the series.
PRO (1.2x): Whichever of the trio mentioned for the STAR position is certainly a consideration for this spot, as are Kyle Lowry ($12,000), Robert Williams ($11,500) and Marcus Smart ($10,500).
Lowry was arguably the most important contributor on the Heat behind Butler in Game 6, and he drained some clutch threes before fouling out and scored a postseason-high 41.8 FD points. The veteran guard is still dealing with his hamstring injury so there's some risk involved, but Lowry also contributed 31.2 FD points in his first outing of the series back in Game 4.
Williams scored only 18.2 FD points in Game 6 due to an outlier of a one-rebound performance, but he's scored 20.8 to 35.3 FD points in the previous four games. He's still dealing with his lingering knee injury, but there's little doubt he'll suit up and likely log a solid workload.
Smart posted 24.3 FD points in Game 6 despite an ugly shooting night that included a 1-for-9 tally from behind the arc. However, he could well bounce back with a resurgent effort in Game 7 given his previous body of work.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Marcus Smart, BOS (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Smart were to sit, Derrick White would be due for a start at point guard.
Robert Williams, BOS (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Williams has managed to play through his knee soreness the last three games, but if he were to miss out, Daniel Theis would likely draw a start at center.
Tyler Herro, MIA (groin)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Herro is unable to suit up, Victor Oladipo would be due for a bump in minutes off the bench.
Max Strus, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Strus is unable to play, Victor Oladipo could potentially draw a start at shooting guard.
Kyle Lowry, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Lowry can't go, Gabe Vincent (hamstring) would potentially start at point guard if he's able to overcome his own questionable designation.
Other notable injuries:
P.J. Tucker, MIA (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Gabe Vincent, MIA (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Elite Players
The two highest-salaried players on the slate are Jimmy Butler ($16,000) and Jayson Tatum ($15,500). As already detailed in the Positional Breakdown section, each player is capable of elite production and each should see very heavy usage Sunday.
Expected Chalk
With only one game on the ledger, the likes of Jaylen Brown ($14,000), Al Horford ($13,000), Bam Adebayo ($11,000) and Marcus Smart ($10,500) should also be very popular.
Key Values
Note: On a multi-game slate, I typically try to highlight players that would be considered under-the-radar plays in this section. Naturally, with such a limited player pool, there will be very few low-rostered players that are likely to also be viable from a DFS perspective, so I'll instead focus on two of the best candidates to provide a strong return relative to salary for the two Utility spots in single-game lineups:
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($11,000)
Adebayo's drop in salary has been justified, considering he's scored under 20 FD points in two of the last three, given he's also produced totals of 26.3, 33.5 and 66 FD points in this series alone, he's certainly got the upside for tournaments. Adebayo does seem to have trouble against Robert Williams in particular, but his rebounding numbers have been stable and he's generated a pair of double-doubles in the series as well.
Derrick White, BOS ($9,500)
White offered a reminder of what he's capable of on the offensive end in Game 6 when he went off for 22 points on his way to 45.1 FD points, a playoff high. White also had totals of 40.6 and 28.7 FD points in the prior two games, making his current salary a bargain. The veteran guard has shot 47.2 percent overall in the last three outings, and considering his defensive prowess, he should see a significant role off the bench again in Game 7.
