Fantasy Basketball: Biggest Breakouts and Busts at the All-Star Break

The All-Star break is behind us meaning that, believe it or not, there are only seven weeks left in the NBA regular season. And if your league cuts out the final couple weeks due to injury and load management concerns (as it should), your playoffs may be starting very soon.

So what better time to look at some fantasy booms and busts from this season? We'll look at each player's Average Draft Position as well as their current nine-category total value rankings on RotoWire.

Booms

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

ADP: 43

Current rank: 1

We were all a little gun shy on SGA after he was shut down over the previous couple seasons due to the Thunder tanking for draft picks. And that was certainly a possibility again this season, especially with Victor Wembanyama hanging in the balance and a completely lost season for No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren (foot).

But a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs: the Thunder aren't tanking. They're currently the No. 10 seed in the West but are just a game out of the No. 7 spot and just 1.5 games behind No. 6 Dallas. And SGA has delivered for his fantasy managers with a remarkable season: 30.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.9 three-pointers on 51 percent shooting from the floor and 91 percent shooting from the free throw line. 

Players averaging fewer blocks than OKC's point guard include: Alperen Sengun, Al Horford, Jusuf Nurkic, Scottie Barnes, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Vucevic, OG Anunoby, Aaron Gordon, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Deandre Ayton, Larry Nance Jr. Nikola Jokic, Isaiah Stewart, Herbert Jones, Lauri Markkanen and Mason Plumlee. I could go on, but you get the idea. 

SGA has turned out to be the No. 1 fantasy player in nine-cat leagues this season and he's just 24 years old. And with Holmgren coming back next season and the Thunder looking like a force to be reckoned with for infinity, SGA is going to be the first pick off a ton of draft boards next season. Congratulations go out to any of you who rolled the dice on him in October. 

Lauri Markkanen, Jazz

ADP: 89

Current rank: 6

Markkanen started making noise in EuroBasket last summer and carried it straight into the preseason. A lot of us weren't completely sold, as evidenced by his ADP of 89. But he showed up, showed out, became an All-Star and is currently the sixth-best player in fantasy hoops. 

He's averaging a career-high 24.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, a career-high 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 blocks, a career-high 3.0 three-pointers and is shooting 52 percent from the floor and 88 percent from the line. If he can bump up his steals and blocks he could be really scary next season.

Obviously Markkanen staying healthy is a big reason he ranks so highly, but even on a per-game basis he's a top-20 player in 9-cat leagues.

Jaren Jackson, Grizzlies

ADP: 114

Current rank: 31

JJJ has been tantalizing us for years and finally lived up to the hype this season. The fact he's been able to stay healthy is a key factor in his success and he's leading the league in blocked shots. He's averaging 16.9 points, a career-high 6.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.1 steals and a career-high 3.3 blocks while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 77.5 percent from the line. With an ADP of 114 this year he's been one of the best steals in fantasy hoops. He's probably going to be a second-round pick in most leagues next season. 

Myles Turner, Pacers

ADP: 54

Current rank: 23

Turner isn't loved in Indy and was the subject of trade rumors for the last year. He finally signed an extension with the Pacers, survived the trade deadline and is having a big year with averages of 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.6 three-pointers, all career bests, along with 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals and 2.3 blocks while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor and 78.5 percent from the stripe. Don't sleep on him next season, as his combination of blocks and three-pointers automatically gives him strong value. 

Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers

ADP: 14

Current rank: 7

I know that his ADP was only seven spots higher than his ranking but I feel like Haliburton still deserves credit for living up to the hype. And his numbers would be even better had he not missed a big chunk of games in January with knee and elbow injuries. He's having a career year with 19.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 10.1 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.9 three-pointers while hitting 48 percent of his shots and 86 percent of his free throws. He's currently fourth in the league in assists per game, could finish No. 1 if he plays well down the stretch, and is going to be a first-round fantasy lock for years to come. 

Busts

Injured Stars

Karl-Anthony Towns (ADP 11)

Zion Williamson (ADP 34)

Brandon Ingram (ADP 45)

Khris Middleton (ADP 55)

These guys were all taken way too early based on how many games they've missed this season, but it's hard to call injured guys "busts," as they didn't really have control over their situations.

KAT has basically had a lost season in three of his last four campaigns and I'm not sure Zion will ever make it through an entire season. Ingram and Middleton should be fine next year, but fantasy managers will have to think twice before gambling on KAT and Zion with the high price tag they'll command. They've become the ultimate risk vs. reward guys, although we've yet to see Zion offer much reward throughout his short career. 

The Giannis Conundrum

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

ADP: 2

Current rank: 137

I'm not going to sit here and tell you Giannis is a bust. You knew when you drafted him that his free throws and turnovers were going to be a problem and they're the exact reasons his ranking is so low. But if you're punting those two categories he automatically jumps up to being a Top-10 player, coming in at No. 7. He's got some wrist and knee issues right now but he's pretty much delivered what was promised if you drafted him.

The True Busts

Ben Simmons, Nets

ADP: 66

Current rank: 167

This guy. Will he play? Will he shoot? Will he ever make a free throw or three-pointer? Can he survive without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant? Unfortunately, the answer to almost all those questions appears to be "no," and Simmons really isn't even worth rostering at this point. 

He's averaging just 6.9 points in 42 games to go along with 6.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks, shooting 57 percent from the floor and a dreadful 44 percent from the line. The points, boards, assists, steals, blocks and free throw shooting are all career lows and it's starting to look like he's not only a perennial fantasy bust, but a real-life one as well. Many fantasy managers drafted him with low expectations, just hoping for enough points, rebounds, assists and steals to help their teams. Apparently, that was too big of an ask. What a waste. 

James Harden, 76ers

ADP: 10

Current rank: 33

Harden is 33 years old and will be 34 by the time next year's drafts roll around. He's also got a ton of miles and minutes on his body after playing an average of 35 minutes a night over his illustrious 14-year career. Harden is averaging 21.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, a league-leading 10.8 dimes, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.8 three-pointers on 45 percent shooting. There's nothing wrong with those numbers or his production, but the days of him being a first-round pick should be over. On a per-game basis, Harden does rank 14th in 9-cat, but availability is a huge part of the equation.

Trae Young, Hawks

ADP: 9

Current rank: 37

While Young's skill set and talent are undeniable, it's not translating to the fantasy value his managers were hoping for this season. He's played better in the second half of the season but the Hawks are sitting in the No. 8 spot in the East and are probably looking at another mid-round draft pick this season without much postseason success to show for it. Young is averaging 26.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 4.1 turnovers and just 2.2 three-pointers on 43 percent shooting. He's a solid fantasy player with a proven track record, but on a per-game basis he's barely inside the top-50 this season, due in large part to the high turnover rate and decline in three-point effectiveness.

Michael Porter, Nuggets

ADP: 67

Current rank: 121

MPJ has been mostly healthy this season but he's still not really working out in terms of fantasy. There's still hope that he'll get it turned around at some point in his career, but it may be tough for him to do so as long as he's playing with Nikola Jokic. He's averaging 16.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks and a career-high 2.9 three-pointers this season with decent shooting percentages.

He'll need to improve nearly all of those going forward and prove that he can stay healthy if he's ever going to live up to the hype. Let someone else draft him early next season and target him in the later rounds if he falls. He'll be a much more exciting pick once the rounds hit double digits than taking him in Round 6 or 7 next year. 

Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers

ADP: 73

Current rank: 124

Nurk'ic's numbers have taken a dip this season and his blocks have dried up over the last two years. He's averaging just 13.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and a career-high 0.9 three-pointers on 52 percent shooting. The free throw shooting is a problem at 68.6 percent, but that shouldn't come as a surprise given his career average of 67 percent. He's a fine fantasy backup but he was basically drafted too early over the last four seasons. 

Keldon Johnson, Spurs

ADP: 75

Current rank: 141

I like Johnson, but almost all of his fantasy value is derived from his scoring prowess. He's averaging a career-high 21.8 points to go along with just 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.2 three-pointers. The shooting percentages are average (44% FG, 78% FT) and he simply doesn't do much outside of scoring. He has a place in fantasy, as scorers are tough to come by later in drafts, but he'll have to improve most other facets of his game if he's ever going to be worth drafting before the 10th round or so.