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Best Bets
James Harden over 4.5 1Q points at Pistons (+100)
DraftKings, 3:26 PM CT
Alex Barutha: I'm too nervous about a blowout in this game to bet Harden over 19.5 points, but I think he can at least exploit Detroit in the first quarter. Detroit has the third-worst pick-and-roll ballhandler defense in the NBA, while 32.7% of Harden's usage comes in pick-and-roll. Not to mention, Detroit is sacrificing the most points to opposing point guards over the past 30 days.
Chet Holmgren over 4.5 1Q points vs. Hornets (-130)
DraftKings, 3:32 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Like the Harden prop, this game has massive blowout potential, so I only want to bank on Holmgren playing his usual first-quarter minutes. The Hornets are the third-worst defense against rollers in the pick-and-roll and have allowed the second-most points to centers over the past 30 days. Holmgren has 20% of his usage come as a roller, which is enough for me to like these odds. He's only averaging 12.3 PPG across his past 10, but this presents as a great bounceback spot.
Anthony Edwards over 3.5 turnovers (-145) vs. Magic
BetMGM, 3:06 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Over the past month, Orlando is forcing opponents into the highest TOV% (15.8) in the NBA. That's emphasized at the shooting guard position -- the position the Magic are forcing the most turnovers to across the past 30 days (3.4). Edwards can be sloppy with the basketball and is averaging 3.6 turnovers per game across the same stretch.
Jonathan Kuminga over 1.5 turnovers (-175) at Grizzlies
BetMGM, 3:12 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Kuminga's increased offensive workload has resulted in more turnovers lately. He's averaging 2.2 giveaways over the past five games. Memphis is forcing the second-most opponent turnovers (15.2%) since Jan. 2, and the most turnovers to power forwards (3.2) during the stretch. The Grizzlies are making up for lack of healthy personnel with increased aggression on defense.
