This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Alex Barutha: Wizards +3.5 (-109) vs. Hawks -- DraftKings Sportsbook 2:19 PM CT
Some of the value has already been bet out of this number, as the Wizards opened as 4.5-point dogs. I still think the number is worth playing since I think the Book will have a ton of liability on the Hawks winning. The Public will be off the 3-11 Wizards. Still, Washington isn't quite as bad as their record indicates, as they'll be getting most of their COVID-related absences back, including Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, and Mo Wagner. Admittedly, this play is more about siding with the Book than a gut feeling the Wizards will pull this out, but the Book always wins, and I think they'll need this one badly.
Kyrie Irving over 27.5 points (-105) vs. OKC -- BetMGM 2:41 PM CT
This play is about two things: Kevin Durant being out and the Thunder allowing the eighth-most points per game (112.4) in the NBA. Since James Harden played his first game with Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving averages 45.3 points per 36 minutes with Kevin Durant off the floor. That's on 26.7 shots per 36, and anytime you can project a player to take the same number of shot attempts as their points prop, you've got value.
Cody Zeller over 7.5 rebounds (-112) vs. IND -- FanDuel 2:53 PM CT
Zeller drew the start and put in 30 minutes against the Pacers just two days ago, posting 14 rebounds, and now his prop is 7.5 boards? I understand the Book wanting to put in some regression, but Zeller's per-minute rebounding numbers are great. He's averaging 13.7 boards per 36 minutes. I'm willing to bank on him getting eight or more again tonight.
Myles Turner over 2.5 blocks (-182) vs. CHA -- BetMGM 3:00 PM CT
There's something really entertaining about a block prop (and the same would go for a dunk prop if I could find them. Imagine how good it would feel to win your Giannis Antetokounmpo over 2.5 dunk prop as he uncorks a poster on someone). Anyway, the last time Turner blocked under three shots in a game was...Jan. 2. It's been nearly a month. Over the past 10 games, he's sending away 4.5 shots per game. There's a lot of (deserved) juice on this number, but I'll drink it. As another aside, I appreciate BetMGM's absurd amount of steal and block props. I would love to know the ROI on smashing the Theo Maledon under 0.5 steals prop all season.
