We have a packed seven-game main slate on Sunday with a start time of 6:00 p.m. EDT. There are also two early matchups, but this article will focus on FanDuel's main offering. We're looking at several impactful injury situations that could affect how we approach our DFS pursuits. So for those who suffered through NFL quarterback absences earlier in the day, the NBA will also have its fair share of missing players.
SLATE OVERVIEW
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I'll occasionally drop a pearl of wisdom or two right after the overview, and one thought came to mind as I was constructing this article. While it's sometimes confusing to see your favorite top producer miss pundit's projections across-the-board, there's almost always a method to the madness. Just because I don't mention someone like James Harden, it doesn't mean I think he'll have a bad outing. We're playing a game of value versus upside, and sometimes salaries don't correlate well enough to use. The salary you invest in someone who'll generate a line that matches exactly with his current cost is essentially leaving money on the table that can be spent elsewhere to greater benefit. Just something to percolate as you continue your DFS journey.
Vegas is really pushing CHA/WAS and CLE/MIL on Sunday, so you may want to inspect the Hornets and Wizards a bit more carefully due to their limited exposure below. I find the spread for IND/MIN interesting as I think the teams will be evenly matched inside. The projected total is only 227, but I believe there's the potential for some impressive DFS totals.
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INJURIES
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Sunday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
NYK Karl-Anthony Towns (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Miles McBride (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Mitchell Robinson (ankle) - OUT
Robinson's continued absence adjusts New York's gameplay and Towns being out would be even more impactful as the Knicks would be forced to go with some combination of Guerschon Yabusele ($3,900) and Ariel Hukporti ($3,700), though I think the probable tag for Josh Hart ($6,000) would change things even more. Jordan Clarkson ($3,900) becomes relevant if McBride can't go.
MIL Kyle Kuzma (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Kuzma suffered the injury Friday evening, but there's no information about the severity of the injury as of writing. If he's forced to miss out, Bobby Portis ($5,500) and Taurean Prince ($3,800) will receive mild usage bumps off the bench.
CLE Darius Garland (toe) - OUT
CLE De'Andre Hunter (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
There was some encouraging news about Garland's progress this week, yet his return is still a few games away leading to continued starts for Sam Merrill. As for Hunter, there's a mix of players competing to absorb his absence, and I've given the edge to Larry Nance ($3,800).
CHA Brandon Miller (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
Miller's shoulder aggravation doesn't appear to be serious, but his attendance should be monitored since he left on Saturday. Tre Mann ($4,300) operated as his direct replacement, though Collin Sexton's ($4,700) role would also expand if Miller is out.
IND Andrew Nembhard (shoulder) - OUT
IND T.J. McConnell (hamstring) - OUT
IND Bennedict Mathurin (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
The guard absences mean that Ben Sheppard ($4,700) will get another green light. The immediate outlook for Mathurin is unclear, though Jarace Walker ($4,300) played the entire fourth quarter after Mathurin left and could be an interesting pivot.
LAC Bradley Beal (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Some players' injury tags are more dependable than others, and Beal is one of them. I'd expect his production to be limited if available. And even with Cam Christie's usage a little higher, I'd opt for Kris Dunn ($3,900) as the better pivot in this spot.
LAL Luka Doncic (finger) - QUESTIONABLE
LAL Jaxson Hayes (back) - QUESTIONABLE
The Lakers depend heavily on Doncic, so this absence would be very impactful. I'd go with Marcus Smart ($3,900) as the likely beneficiary, and a thin roster behind Deandre Ayton would probably result in a bump for Jarred Vanderbilt ($3,900) if Hayes can't go. I wouldn't count out Austin Reaves ($8,200) during a Doncic absence, yet his salary is too high for me.
SAC Zach LaVine (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
LaVine is off to a spectacular start, and I wouldn't be surprised if his heavy usage and resulting fatigue weren't a contributing factor. This seems to be a favorable spot for Malik Monk ($5,800), but the team's early desire to keep him in a sixth-man role might persuade them to start Keon Ellis ($3,900).
ELITE PLAYERS
With Doncic potentially out, we're limited to two players above the $10k threshold. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800) is probable with a toe injury while Anthony Davis ($10,900) will square off against the Raptors. I think Davis's salary is too high. And though Giannis's is appropriately valued, I'll explore other options before I decide to make room for either player.
There are only three in the $9k range, and the matchup led me to lean toward Donovan Mitchell ($9,000) while some Indiana injury issues make Anthony Edwards ($9,400) an appealing selection. Pascal Siakam ($9,100) is also viable, but he ranks third among this tier.
Evan Mobley ($8,400) and Bam Adebayo ($8,000) are my favorite options in the $8k group, but I'd also give Scottie Barnes ($8,400) extra consideration.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis, SAC ($8,800) vs. LAL, Jalen Brunson, NYK ($8,100) @ MIA
EXPECTED CHALK AND MID-RANGE OPTIONS
Julius Randle, MIN ($7,300) vs. IND
Randle's numbers have soared above 5x value, and he'll still a bargain at this salary. The Pacers offer a lot of frontcourt talent to throw at Randle and Rudy Gobert. And if Pascal Siakam lines up against him, the battle will be interesting to watch. I still believe Randle's aggressiveness can win out here while he'll be critical in establishing the presence inside.
Immanuel Quickley, TOR ($6,800) @ DAL
I've expressed my interest in Toronto throughout the preseason, but I will take Quickley as my primary Raptor based on the matchup. Cooper Flagg's attention will probably be more focused on RJ Barrett or Brandon Ingram while Quickley is arguably a few steps quicker than Klay Thompson. He could be the forgotten man that Dallas fails to defend, especially in transition.
Norman Powell, MIA ($6,500) vs. NYK
I anticipate calling Powell's number frequently this season as he's an excellent option while Tyler Herro is out. His dual eligibility is also an excellent asset and as a bargain provided he stays below $7k. The matchup isn't ideal, yet the Knicks may be without Towns and McBride and Hart may be a step slower.
Ivica Zubac, LAC ($5,900) vs. POR
In searching for a decent value at center, Zubac looks like a solid choice against the Trail Blazers. I should give extra attention to James Harden and Kawhi Leonard given the current state of affairs in Portland, but they fell just outside my projections due to slightly inflated salaries. Zubac has more support behind him this season, though he's still excellent and will produce if he gets his usual 30 minutes.
Also consider: OG Anunoby, NYK ($6,400) @ MIA
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, look to the injury report for the best values. We've included a nice crop below $6k who should come in handy.
Deandre Ayton, LAL ($5,700) @ SAC
Ayton is definitely undervalued with plenty of experience against Domantas Sabonis. It'll be a tough battle for both, but there's ample opportunity for production between them. Ayton will also log more minutes if Hayes is unable to come off the bench.
Khris Middleton, WAS ($5,700) vs. CHA
Middleton has settled into a nice role with the Wizards, and signs of a potential blowup game are evident in his recent stat lines. He doesn't quite fit into the club's rebuild narrative, though he's looked accurate while making significant contributions. I wouldn't expect miracles here, but 30 FDFP is a reasonable prediction.
Jaime Jaquez, MIA ($5,000) vs. NYK
It's going to be tough to differentiate between Jaquez and Andrew Wiggins this season, yet the latter's salary hasn't correlated well with his production so far. Jaquez is still cheap compared to his output, which echoes the sentiment I made earlier in this article.
Ryan Rollins, MIL ($4,800) @ CLE
Rollins has fended off the competition and looks to be Milwaukee's first choice at point guard. It's usually beneficial to take a starter when his numbers are this low, and his recent lines inspire confidence. Rollins is a bit limited by single eligibility, though is definitely an option if you spent up with Antetokounmpo as the duo would make a solid stack.
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