NBA Draft Strategy: Evaluating Yahoo's Rankings Update

It's been close to a week since the devastating news of Kevin Durant's injury came across our collective Twitter timelines, and in that time, we've also had some time to digest some preseason basketball. The fine folks at Yahoo have also been digesting the preseason, and that's led them to change their default rankings. When their first set of rankings came out, I wrote about it here and pointed out quite a few situations to exploit and situations to avoid.

Unfortunately, it seems the higher-ups at Yahoo have read my article (I say this with tongue firmly planted in cheek), because a lot of the advantages savvy fantasy owners could get away with in the early going have been closed up.

Rankings Risers

K.J. McDaniels, G, Philadelphia – Old Rank 534, New Rank 156
The single biggest riser in the new rankings that Yahoo put out, McDaniels went from buried in the 500's, to now being on everyone's radar in 12-team leagues. And rightly so. If you want the rookie, who has been averaging 7.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 23 minutes through five preseason games so far, you are going to have to pony up a pick greater than your last rounder, most likely. He looks like he'll be a great source of blocks and steals from the shooting guard slot, and we all know what happens to players on the Sixers who get minutes.

Henry Sims, C, Philadelphia – Old Rank 305, New Rank 123
It appears Yahoo has been watching a bit of Sixers' ball, it. Sims was another guy you could easily grab in the last round, but not so much now. He's locked in as the starter next to Nerlens Noel and will be a nice guy to look at for end-of-your draft scoring and rebounds. His ceiling, however, is not very high. Sims is averaging 10.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 0.6 blocks in 27 minutes. He is also shooting a putrid 32 percent from the field and 70 percent from the line in his five games.

Terrence Jones, F, Houston – Old Rank 147, New Rank 81
Everyone's favorite sleeper has seen a dramatic rise in his pre-ranking at Yahoo, right in line with where he should be drafted. These sort of changes play out the case for savvy owners to schedule their league's draft early in October, before people can get clued in on the value that abounds thanks to crowd sourcing the rankings through the results of live drafts. Jones should start for the Rockets at power forward and has averaged 11.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks in 23 minutes through four games this preseason. He's shot 47 percent from the field and 74 percent from the line, and if you extrapolate those numbers to around 30-odd minutes, you'll see how valuable Jones will be this season. Don't wait too long to draft him.

Markieff Morris, F, Phoenix – Old Rank 134, New Rank 74
If Jones isn't everyone's favorite sleeper, then Kieff surely is. Yahoo saw it, in their infinite wisdom, to give him a similar rise in the rankings after he signed a nice four-year, $32 million contract this preseason. He's been coming off the bench the last couple games, with coach Jeff Hornacek running with Anthony Tolliver at power forward, but that matters not for Morris' fantasy value. He has averaged 11.3 points with 1.0 three-pointers, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 steals in just 18 minutes, shooting 55 percent from the field and 78 percent from the line. He's still a guy you want on your team, but now, you can't afford to wait.

Kelly Olynyk, C, Boston – Old Rank 178, New Rank 112
Olynyk will be the Celtics' starting center this season and has shown just what he can do this preseason. If you want a three-point shooting center, you can't wait too long now. Olynyk, in his second season and has averaged 10.8 points, 1.8 three-pointers, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.2 blocks in 28 minutes per game. He is shooting 43 percent from the field and 69 percent from the line in his five games. Curse you Yahoo, and your more accurate rankings!

Rankings Fallers

Spencer Hawes, C, Los Angeles Clippers – Old Rank 87, New Rank 168
Hawes was a massive surprise last season playing for the Sixers and the Cavaliers, but now he finds himself stuck behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in Los Angeles. He'll still be a fantastic producer but will be lacking in the most important fantasy stat – minutes. This precipitous drop could assist fantasy owners, as taking Hawes in your last round is now a viable strategy, and in the 22 minutes he's averaged in preseason, Hawes has scored 10.0 points, 1.3 three-pointers, 5.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks, shooting 40 percent from the field and 60 percent from the line. The efficiency is way off, but the other numbers are nothing to scoff at.

Isaiah Thomas, G, Phoenix – Old Rank 48, New Rank 99
Thomas was obviously way too high at pick 48, but now sitting just inside the top 100, he becomes a tantalizing option. In the preseason, coach Jeff Hornacek has mentioned his desire to run a three-guard lineup and that could easily become more of a reality as the season progresses. Thomas has averaged 11.0 points, 1.3 three-pointers, 3.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.3 steals in just 21 minutes and has shot 44 percent from the floor and has yet to miss a free throw. Given Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic's injury issues last season, Thomas could easily find himself playing starter's minutes for in excess of 20 games this season, and even if he doesn't, he's shown how productive he can be in a limited role. Pick 99 looks all the more enticing.

Andrew Wiggins, G, Minnesota – Old Rank 61, New Rank 92
This is much more palatable for the number one draft choice, as picking him at 61 seemed like way too much of a reach. He exploded in his first preseason game and has been solid in the two games since, averaging 13.0 points, 1.0 three-pointers, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block in 30 minutes per game. He's shot a semi-respectable 44 percent from the field and 60 percent from the line in his three preseasons tilts. Bear in mind though, Kevin Martin has been sitting out, so Wiggins' role may be reduced when he returns.

Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City – Old Rank 1, New Rank 16
A drop was to be expected, but now Durant finds himself totally out of the first round. He leaves owners with one of the more difficult drafting choices at the top of drafts in recent memory, but if people are going strictly off these ranks in your league, you may be able to sneak the best player in fantasy onto your roster in the second round. Can you afford the risk? That's the million dollar question.

Trey Burke, G, Utah – Old Rank 114, New Rank 125
Now this one is a little baffling. Burke has been pegged as a sleeper in numerous places, yet when the rankings are adjusted he drops? That can only be good things for fantasy owners as it allows a little more breathing space to grab him at the end of your drafts, when the point guard market has completely dried up. Burke has looked impressive in the preseason, averaging 15.2 points, 2.6 three-pointers, 3.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.0 steal in 30 minutes per game. He's shot 46 percent from the field and an uncharacteristic 54 percent from the line. If you're drafting in Yahoo, Burke should be on all of your teams with this latest re-rank.

And that's that. A quick look at the changes that have occurred in the Yahoo O-Ranks and how they can affect your upcoming drafts. If you want to know the change for a specific player and how they are trending, drop a request in the comments.

Yahoo Rankings Update Cheat Sheet

Click here to view both rankings and the changes in the rankings in a simple google spreadsheet.