NBA Observations: LeBron's Absence, Morant's Rapid Raise + Potential Post-Deadline Adds

Welcome to Week 16 of the fantasy basketball season. At this point in the year, we're well past the halfway point, and most of the league begins to look ahead to the All-Star break. For most teams, it begins Thursday, February 17, though 10 teams are in action that night. At minimum, the league will be off for six full days, not including the All-Star festivities set to take over Cleveland on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

But before the All-Star break arrives, all of the attention will be centered around the February 10 trade deadline. Compared to some years past, it's shaping up to be a relatively quiet deadline, though big-ish names like Domantas Sabonis, CJ McCollum, Ben Simmons, Myles Turner and Caris LeVert have been floated out there as possible trade candidates. For the most part, fantasy managers will have to wait and see which players are ultimately sent packing, but in the lead-up to the deadline it's a good idea to consider a speculative add or two – if you can spare the roster, spot of course.

We'll dive into some of those potential adds, as well as touch on the other top storylines in fantasy basketball, in this week's look around the NBA:

Ja Morant's MVP Case

For most of the season, I'll admit that I haven't truly considered Ja Morant to be a legitimate MVP candidate. But as the Grizzlies continue to surge (yes, yes, I know they lost in OT last night) up the Western Conference standings, the case for Morant is becoming increasingly realistic.

Now, if I had to make a pick right now, do I think Morant actually wins it? Admittedly, probably not. Joel Embiid, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are all having ridiculous statistical seasons, and Morant jumping all four of those established superstars is unlikely. But after yet another 30-plus-point game Monday night – his seventh in a row – Morant is up to 30.1 points, 6.7 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 threes on 51 percent shooting over his last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies sit in third place in the West, a full 4.0 games clear of the fourth-place Jazz. Memphis' 35-18 record would be good for first (by 2.0 games) in the Eastern Conference.

There's not a ton of value in the MVP betting market right now, as Embiid, Jokic, Antetokounmpo and Curry are all 4/1 or lower at Bet MGM. Just beyond that group is Morant at 14/1. Again, I'm not saying he'd necessarily be my pick right now (full disclosure: I would vote for Jokic), but there's a case to be made that Morant is the best value bet as the All-Star break approaches.

LeBron likely out Wednesday, perhaps longer

The Lakers' comically disastrous season continues to go from bad to worse, as Shams Charania of The Athletic reported Tuesday morning that LeBron James will likely miss a fourth straight game Wednesday versus Portland. Charania added that James "could be out a few more games" due to "irritation" in his left knee, which initially cropped up following a win over Brooklyn last week. Thus far, the Lakers are 0-3 without James, most recently losing at Atlanta on Sunday.

The injury put a halt to what had turned into a monster fantasy season for James, who currently ranks 10th in 8-cat total value and second in per-game value. Dating back to Nov. 24, James has averaged 30.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.3 blocks and 2.8 threes on 53.0 percent shooting over his last 28 games. 

• Anthony Davis made his long-awaited return to action in that aforementioned game against Brooklyn last Tuesday. While Davis finished that game with just eight points and two rebounds in 25 minutes, he did add four blocks to salvage a decent fantasy night.
  • Davis looked more like himself Thursday in Philly, finishing with 31 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks and two steals in 34 minutes. After missing Friday's loss in Charlotte, he went for 27 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block Sunday.
  • It's been another strange, injury-riddled season for the big man, but he's quietly bounced back as a fantasy asset, ranking 17th in per-game value in 8-cat leagues. He trails only Myles Turner, Jaren Jackson and Rudy Gobert in fantasy value derived from shot-blocking.

Looking ahead to the trade deadline

We're just a few short weeks away from the All-Star break, but most NBA teams are far more concerned about the rapidly approaching Feb. 10 trade deadline. For the most part, the same batch of names have been kicked around for several weeks now, but as the deadline nears, urgency has a way of spurring teams into action.

At this juncture, it's anyone's guess who will be on the move, but here are a handful of under-the-radar players fantasy managers should monitor closely at the deadline:

Isaiah Jackson (31% rostered), Oshae Brissett (1% rostered), Chris Duarte (55% rostered), Indiana Pacers

• Once it became clear that Indiana's season was heading in the wrong direction, it didn't take long for the team to begin leaking reports that it was very much open for business. All three of Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert could be on the table at the deadline. Of that group, Turner and LeVert appear most likely to be moved, but it's far from out of the question that a team could swoop in with an offer for Sabonis.
• If either of the big men are dealt, Jackson and Brissett could immediately become viable fantasy assets in standard leagues. Goga Bitadze could also work his way into the mix, but Brissett and Jackson are the more appealing players.
  • The 23-year-old Brissett has averaged 9.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 threes in the 12 games in which he's played at least 24 minutes this season. In 2020-21, he made 18 starts and posted 13.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 2.1 threes in 31.0 minutes.
  • Jackson, a 2021 first-rounder, is the more unproven option, but the Pacers are obviously invested in his development and would likely prioritize him over Bitadze – and perhaps over Brissett, as well. Jackson just made his first career start Monday night against the Clippers, finishing with 26 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and a steal in 29 minutes. In Saturday's loss to Dallas, Jackson finished with 12 points, six boards, three blocks and a steal in 18 minutes.
• The case for Duarte is pretty cut and dry. If LeVert is moved, Duarte should have a stranglehold on a starting spot the rest of the way. He's already started the last seven games, and with Malcolm Brogdon sidelined, Duarte makes for a strong hold even if LeVert sticks around. As of Tuesday, Brogdon has missed 19 of the last 22 games and is without a clear timetable.

Davion Mitchell, Sacramento Kings (25% rostered)

• With De'Aaron Fox missing the last five games, we've already seen a preview of what Mitchell can provide with increased minutes. Over his last three games (all starts), he's posted 17.7 points, 5.7 assists, 2.0 rebounds and 3.0 threes on 46 percent shooting.
  • It's unclear just how serious the Kings may be about dealing Fox (or even Tyrese Haliburton), but if one of those guards is shipped out, the coast could be clear for Mitchell to thrive down the stretch. Field goal percentage will likely be an issue, but Mitchell could be a source of points, assists and steals.

Hamidou Diallo, Detroit Pistons (20% rostered)

• I know, I know. It hasn't been pretty for Diallo over the last few weeks. He's been downright bad. But we cannot ignore his 15-game run from Dec. 19 through Jan. 18 in which he posted 16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.2 steals (!!) in 31.2 minutes. If the Pistons part ways with Jerami Grant, Diallo could remain in the starting lineup the rest of the way.

Garrison Mathews (16% rostered), Josh Christopher (1% rostered), Houston Rockets

• We're really in the weeds now. Mathews is still on some fantasy radars thanks to his scorching run in early December, when he averaged 3.8 threes per game (44.2% 3Pt) over a nine-game stretch. He's since fallen off considerably – 35.8% 3Pt over the last 19 games – but both he and Christopher will be worth monitoring if the Rockets are able to find a taker for Eric Gordon. The veteran is set to make $19.6 million in 2022-23, so moving him won't be easy, but it's also possible the 14-36 Rockets could simply shut him down – or at least limit his workload – down the stretch.
  • In the 10 games in which he's played at least 23 minutes this season, Christopher is averaging 12.8 points, 2.7 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.5 threes. Locked into a multi-year rebuild, Houston has plenty of incentive to see what one of their four 2021 first-round picks has to offer.

Quick Hits

• The NBA announced the starters for the 2022 All-Star Game during Thursday night's telecast on TNT. Save for one major outlier, none of the selections were overly surprising. Here's how this year's starters rank in eight-cat total value (per-game value in parenthesis):
  • Eastern Conference
    • G: Trae Young: 4th (7th)
    • G: DeMar DeRozan: 21st (33rd)
    • F: Kevin Durant: 14th (3rd)
      • Note: Durant will not play due to injury. He'll be replaced by Jayson Tatum (7th in total value; 19th in per-game value)
    • F: Giannis Antetokounmpo: 11th (12th)
    • C: Joel Embiid: 12th (6th)
  • Western Conference
    • G: Stephen Curry: 2nd (5th)
    • G: Ja Morant: 27th (23rd)
    • F: Andrew Wiggins: 58th (92nd)
    • F: LeBron James: 10th (2nd)
    • C: Nikola Jokic: 1st (1st)
• Kyle Lowry missed his eighth straight game Monay against Boston as he continues to deal with a private, personal matter. The Heat have not released any details surrounding Lowry's absence, so it's extremely unclear when he might rejoin the team. Miami is in the midst of a six-game road swing, so it's quite possible that Lowry could remain out for the entirety of the trip, which concludes next Thursday, Feb. 10 at New Orleans.
• Has Stephen Curry finally broken out of his prolonged shooting slump? Curry went off for 40 points, including seven three-pointers, in Monday night's 122-108 victory over the Rockets in Houston. It was the 10th time this season that Curry drained at least seven threes, though the previous nine all occurred before Christmas.
  • Klay Thompson finished Monday's win with 14 points, three rebounds and three assists in 26 minutes, though he went just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc. Thompson will sit out Tuesday's game against the Spurs for rest purposes.
• Over the weekend, the Thunder announced that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) will be shut down through the All-Star break. It's too soon for fantasy managers to enter a complete panic, but it's difficult to avoid drawing parallels to last season, when Gilgeous-Alexander ended up missing the final 29 games due to plantar fascia.
  • With SGA out Monday against Portland, Josh Giddey took the reins of the Thunder office and posted his 11th double-double of the season, breaking Russell Westbrook's franchise rookie record. Giddey also became the youngest player since Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James to record at least 500 points, 200 rebounds and 200 assists through his first 45 career games.
  • Giddey closed the month of January averaging 13.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 threes.
• Fantasy managers in daily and weekly lineup leagues should feel free to start Kyrie Irving, as the Nets play all four of their Week 16 contests on the road.
  • Now with eight games under his belt, Irving holds averages of 24.5 points, 5.4 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.3 threes in 35.3 minutes. 
• Both Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk are expected to return to action for Detroit on Tuesday night against New Orleans. Olynyk returned from an extended injury absence Jan. 19 in Sacramento, but he only played in two games before entering COVID-19 protocols. Grant, meanwhile, has not played since all the way back on Dec. 10.
  • Grant could play in as many as five games before the trade deadline. Detroit's intentions aren't clear, but Grant is near the top of the list of relevant players with a good chance to be moved.
• The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least the next two games due to a sprained left wrist. Beal will sit out both halves of a Tuesday/Wednesday back-to-back set against Milwaukee and Philadelphia, and it's possible he could miss additional time.
  • After finishing as a first-round value in 2020-21, Beal ranks outside the top 40 in both per-game and total value this season.
• Cade Cunningham put up his second triple-double of the season in Detroit's upset win over the Cavs on Sunday. The No. 1 overall pick is still prone to some off nights – he had eight points on 3-of-17 shooting Friday at Orlando – but he's emerged as the clear-cut top fantasy rookie. Entering Tuesday night, Cunningham ranks 50th in 8-cat leagues, ahead of Scottie Barnes (76th), Evan Mobley (77th), Franz Wagner (93rd), Josh Giddey (101st) and Herbert Jones (102nd).