Friday night's CBB betting slate is a smaller one, but we've still got a handful of Big Ten and Big East teams to consider, as well as a few intriguing mid-major squads that are taking the court. Coming off a sweep with yesterday's action, here are my predictions for Friday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Massachusetts 
at Buffalo 
This is the perfect 'buy-low' opportunity with the Bulls. Buffalo is riding a four-game losing streak following a 13-2 (3-0) start to the season, but it's worth noting that the recent skid coincides with the Bulls facing the top four teams in the Mid-American Conference. One of the losses was a three-point overtime loss at Miami (OH), which actually improved Buffalo's adjusted efficiency rating because the Red Hawks are still undefeated at 20-0 and rank among the top 100 in overall efficiency.
Regardless, Buffalo has a significant matchup advantage on Friday. The Bulls are among the best at getting to the charity stripe, ranking among the top 30 teams nationally in free-throw attempt rate. This poses a major problem for the Minutemen's defense, which is among the worst at committing fouls, ranking among the bottom 30 teams in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Buffalo will likely see an extra helping of points, assuming these trends continue, as it has made 75 percent of its foul shots (96th).
The other weak area for Massachusetts is its interior defense. The Minutemen are allowing opponents to make 55 percent of two-point attempts, a mark that ranks 300th. The Bulls, meanwhile, are making 54 percent of shots inside the arc (111th), so they will likely have several easy scoring opportunities on Friday.
Buffalo hasn't been as strong at the other end of the court, but neither has UMass. Despite playing a significantly more difficult conference slate to this point, Buffalo's defense matches UMass' offense in the following categories during league play: efficiency, rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage. Additionally, the Bulls' defense ranks better than the Minutemen's offense in turnovers and free-throw attempt rate.
Overall, Buffalo is clearly superior offensively, and its defense appears capable of holding its own against Massachusetts. To borrow a line I used in yesterday's article (featuring South Florida), I am once again running with the Bulls.
College Basketball Best Bet: Buffalo +1.5
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Ohio State 
at Michigan 
As most college hoops fans are well aware by now, Michigan is a buzz saw this season. Aside from their one loss, a three-point defeat at the hands of Wisconsin, the Wolverines have seemingly nearly every team in their path, one that includes 40-point victories over Gonzaga, San Diego State, and Rutgers, among several other extremely lopsided scores.
A vital ingredient to their success has been their second-to-none dominance in the paint at both ends of the court. Michigan boasts the second-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, and it leads the nation in both made two-point field goal percentage (64 percent) and two-point field goal percentage allowed (under 41 percent). The Wolverines also rank among the top 60 teams in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, further cementing their elite status in the frontcourt.
This is especially notable on the defensive end for Michigan, as Ohio State has relied primarily on interior scoring against league opponents. Two-point shots account for 53 percent of Ohio State's total points during conference play, the fifth-highest mark in the Big Ten. For comparison, three-point shots only account for 28 percent of its total points, the fourth-lowest mark during the Big Ten conference season.
The spread is quite large, understandably so, but that doesn't mean Michigan can't cover it. In fact, historical precedence suggests otherwise.
The last time Michigan defeated Ohio State by at least 16 points, it was on January 29, 2019. Coincidentally, each team sat in similar positions on KenPom's overall efficiency chart that season, with Michigan at fifth and Ohio State at 31st at the time of the game. History repeating itself is a common notion, one that I'm betting on come Friday. I'm laying the points with the Wolverines.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -15.5
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Utah State 
at Colorado State 
The Aggies throttled the Rams at the start of the conference season in early December by a tune of 100-58. To be fair, the Aggies have posted similar results against other Mountain West opponents. In any event, Friday's matchup features the top two offensive teams in the conference.
Utah State ranks 26th in adjusted efficiency, and it leads the Mountain West in seemingly every key category during league play: efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and offensive rebounding. Colorado State, meanwhile, ranks 36th in adjusted efficiency and is one of the top shooting teams in the nation. The Rams have made 41 percent of three-point attempts, the second-highest mark among all D-1 teams, and they've also made 57 percent of two-point shots (40th), yielding the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage nationally.
Colorado State is also consistent on the offensive glass, an area that could come into play on Friday. The Rams rank above the D-1 average in offensive rebounding percentage for the entire season and have maintained this strength in league play, recording the fifth-highest mark in the MWC. Utah State, on the other hand, has not consistently boxed out on defense. The Aggies rank 238th in defensive rebounding over the whole season and are actually doing worse during conference play, posting the second-worst rebounding rate in the league.
Despite the Rams' outstanding scoring abilities, they often opt out of playing defense, which is how you end up with the score we saw in the first round between these teams in late December, 100-58. Colorado State ranks 235th in adjusted defensive efficiency for the whole season and has the third-worst rating during league competition, giving us a team that has routinely gotten torched on the defensive end.
Considering Colorado State's exemplary shooting, taking points with the home team is tempting, but ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing a high score. I'm taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 148.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Buffalo +1.5
- Michigan -15.5
- Utah State at Colorado State - Over 148.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
