We have a loaded college hoops slate on tap for Saturday. Many potential contenders are taking the court and facing off against other NCAA Tournament hopefuls. Here are my predictions for a trio of games scheduled to tip off later today.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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SMU 
vs. LSU
These two teams are incredibly even on the surface. They are alongside each other on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and they're also not far from each other in offense and defense. That said, a closer look reveals a few key differences that give one team the edge.
First, LSU has a much stronger defensive presence inside the paint. The Tigers are holding opponents to under 44 percent on two-point attempts, the 14th-best mark among all D-1 teams, and they're also defending the boards at a high level, ranking 51st in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, SMU's defense has performed much worse in the same two categories, ranking 124th in two-point FG percentage allowed and 169th in defensive rebounding.
Second, LSU has more substantial numbers across many essential offensive areas needed to win a game. Specifically, the Tigers rank higher than the Mustangs in effective field-goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate.
All things considered, I gotta go with the home team in this one. I'm taking the Tigers.
College Basketball Best Bet: LSU +1.5
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Arizona 
vs. Alabama 
This pick is all about Alabama's defense, or lack thereof. It is easily the weakest component in this matchup.
Alabama has one of the most explosive offensive attacks in the nation, but Arizona's defense is proving to be similarly elite, ranking 10th in adjusted efficiency. In analyzing the Wildcats' defense, it's clear why it's so effective. They don't have any apparent weaknesses. Arizona ranks in the Top 100 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage allowed, defensive turnover percentage, defensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. It is also holding opponents to 44 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the 18th-best mark among all D-1 teams, which is an essential stat because Alabama is highly effective at scoring in the paint, making almost 63 percent of two-point attempts.
Arizona is just as good at the other end of the court, where it ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Wildcats can score from just about anywhere, with an effective field goal percentage that ranks 22nd, and they're also among the best at collecting offensive boards, posting the ninth-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams. This is vital because Alabama's defense, aside from its lack of turnovers (330th), has struggled to box out, ranking 170th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Alabama is always a threat to win any game by scorching the nets, but in this case, I believe Arizona will walk away with a win thanks to its high level of play at both ends of the court. I'm going with the Wildcats.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona -1.5
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UCLA 
vs. Gonzaga
The key to this pick is Gonzaga's offense and how it matches up against UCLA's defense. The Bulldogs are among the best in the nation at scoring, boasting the sixth-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating, and they have outstanding numbers in nearly every key area. The stat that needs to be underscored, however, is rebounding. Gonzaga tallies offensive rebounds at a high rate, the 28th-highest percentage. UCLA, meanwhile, has struggled in this area defensively, ranking 221st. Second-chance opportunities can make a big difference in any game, but especially in this one, as Gonzaga has made 60 percent of its two-point attempts.
Impressively, Gonzaga has performed even better when playing on the other end of the court, earning the fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency ranking. The Bulldogs rank in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and defensive rebounding.
Raw stats can be misleading this time of year, with unbalanced schedules and a smaller sample size, but this is a case where there's virtually no inflation in Gonzaga's numbers. The Bulldogs have played a schedule so far that ranks 23rd in difficulty, while UCLA ranks 235th in the same category. And for what it's worth, this is also only the second time this season the Bruins have traveled outside California.
Covering a double-digit isn't easy, and I wouldn't be surprised if the score is tied at halftime, but I believe Gonzaga's scoring and defensive abilities will enable it to pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Bulldogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -10.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- LSU +1.5
- Arizona -1.5
- Gonzaga -10.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
