This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a thrilling day of non-conference college hoops action on tap with several notable rivalry games in the mix. Here are my best bets for Saturday.
Cincinnati at 
Xavier
Cincinnati is riding high and is still unbeaten with a perfect 7-0 record. The Bearcats also rank 27th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart so everything appears fine on the surface, but there's more to the story. Despite its unblemished record, Cincinnati is still thoroughly untested this season. The Bearcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country ranking No. 320 in difficulty, and they recently nearly lost a home game to Howard and only survived 86-81 in overtime. Saturday's game will easily represent Cincinnati's first real test as it has yet to play any opponent ranked in the top-125 of KenPom's overall efficiency rankings.
Xavier, in stark contrast, enters with a 4-5 record. The amount of losses is concerning, though it's worth noting the Musketeers had a tough schedule that ranked 84th in difficulty and two of their defeats came against the top-two teams in the country (according to KenPom) in Houston and Purdue. Even after having faced some of the best teams in the country, Xavier lists strong defensive numbers having held opponents to 44 percent on shots taken inside the arc, the 33rd-lowest percentage in the country. And when factoring in perimeter defense, they're limiting opponents to the 27th-lowest field goal percentage allowed.
When comparing the teams side-by-side, Xavier appears well-equipped to defend Cincinnati. The Musketeers don't have any glaring weaknesses defensively, and Cincinnati's offense hasn't been tested. The Bearcats' strength of difficulty of defenses faced ranks No. 338, so Saturday will be incredibly revealing. The same note applies at the other end of the court where Xavier's offense - ranked 77th in efficiency - is easily the best scoring side the Bearcats have encountered so far.
Unless there are extenuating circumstances, I don't usually consider motivational angles, but this is a rare instance where I think desperation might help. Xavier is riding a three-game losing streak and now hosts its undefeated rival. One of these teams badly needs a win, and it's not the one on the road. The Musketeers recently held a second-half lead against Houston with under seven minutes remaining, so they're still a capable group despite the recent string of losses. I'm open to the idea that Cincinnati might prove me wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. And for what it's worth, Xavier has taken the last four games in this matchup. I'm taking the home team here.
I also like our odds of producing a low-scoring game. This is historically an intense rivalry game, and both are defensively oriented. The Bearcats currently show balanced numbers, though Cincinnati head coach Wes Miller consistently coaches his teams up on defense. Going back to his days at UNC Greensboro, teams he's led have finished in the top-75 in defensive efficiency in every single season since 2018. The offense often pales in comparison, with last year and this one being exceptions where the scoring numbers are closer to the defensive performance. The number is incredibly high seemingly because both teams prefer fast tempos this season, so we have some extra margin for error. I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +1 and Under 152.5
UCLA at 
Villanova
UCLA had a massive amount of roster turnover during the offseason and its offense still hasn't found its footing. The Bruins are once again great on defense as we'd expect from any team coached by Mick Cronin, yet their lack of scoring doesn't bode well going into Saturday. This was a problem in both of their losses this season, and it's likely to be a problem again based on their opponent.
Villanova is surprisingly on a three-game losing streak, but still a formidable bunch despite the recent slump. Before their current skid, the Wildcats won the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament by defeating several prominent teams in the form of Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. Villanova has been strong on both ends of the court ranking 34th in offensive efficiency and 42nd in defense. They're most effective from long-range with over 38 percent of its total points coming from deep, the 25th-highest percentage of points off three-pointers in the nation. UCLA's defense has been weaker on the perimeter, so Villanova will surely unleash another barrage of long-range shots on Saturday.
UCLA, on the other hand, refuses to shoot from behind the arc. The Bruins rank almost last among all 362 D1 teams in three-point attempt rate, leading to only 16 percent of points coming from deep. The inability to make long-range shots is fine against lesser teams, but it's not a recipe for success against Villanova. The Wildcats are much stronger when it comes to interior defense as they've held opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts, the 71st-lowest percentage allowed.
Based on how these teams match up against each other, I strongly favor the Wildcats. They're at home with a strong defense and a favorable matchup against UCLA's one-dimensional offensive style. I'm laying the points with the Wildcats.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova -3.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Xavier +1
- Cincinnati at Xavier - Under 152.5
- Villanova -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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