This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday always delivers during this time of year for college hoops, and today's slate is particularly spectacular. Here are my predictions for three games tipping off later in the day.
Auburn 
at Alabama
By now, most fans have heard the hype. No. 1 versus No. 2. The Iron Bowl on the hardwood. Let's get into it.
My pick for this matchup centers around Alabama's offense and their matchup against Auburn's defense. The Crimson Tide boast the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation while leading the SEC since the start of the conference season. Auburn's defense is stout on paper ranking sixth in efficiency during league play, though they're weak in two critical areas.
The Tigers haven't been good on the defense glass all season, and this problem has worsened against SEC competition with the conference's third-worst defensive rebounding percentage. That's a problem as Alabama have been relentless on the offensive glass all year by recording the 15th-highest offensive rebounding percentage and the second-best in the SEC during league play. This mismatch makes a difference in just about any game, but it's even more notable for this matchup. According to KenPom, Alabama gets a massive production boost when it picks up offensive boards, with rebounding positively correlating to its offensive success nearly to the same extent as its effective field goal percentage.
Auburn also frequently have trouble with fouling opposing teams at 270th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Tide are exceptional at forcing contact sitting 18th in free-throw attempt rate.
It's also worth pointing out Alabama have vastly improved their long-range shooting the last few weeks. Over the season, they've made 34 percent of its shots from beyond the arc with 38 against conference opponents - the second-best mark in the league.
At the other end, Auburn's offense appears to have an advantage over Alabama's defense, yet a closer look reveals the home team is set to succeed. Regarding efficiency, the Tigers list the SEC's second-highest offensive efficiency rating during conference play with Alabama eighth on defense. The story is a bit different when looking at other important factors as the Tide's D have held opponents to the second-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed while Auburn's offense is fifth. Their defense also takes the edge in two-point and three-point categories. Auburn often benefits from offensive rebounding at fourth in the SEC, though Alabama is sixth to provide the home team a decent chance of withstanding the Tigers' usual advantage.
Given the location of the game and how Alabama's style matches up against Auburn, I have to go with the home side. I'm rolling with the Tide.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -2.5
Kentucky 
at Texas 
When Kentucky wins, it's usually due to their elite offensive attack boasting the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, a weapon potent enough to knock out Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Texas A&M, and Tennessee (twice).
In looking at how the Wildcats match up against the Longhorn's defense, it's hard to see how Texas will get many stops. Their defense initially appears strong, yet it's important to note they feasted off a non-conference schedule that ranked 353rd in difficulty per KenPom. When we focus on data from the SEC season, Texas suddenly look much more questionable at 11th or worse in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. During the same stretch, Kentucky's offense sits third in efficiency, second in effective field goal percentage, first in three-point FG percentage, and fourth in two-point FG percentage. All signs point to an overwhelming advantage on this side of the court.
When going in the other direction, the Wildcats' defense has significantly improved over the last two games ago, including their victory over Tennessee. This turnaround was much needed as it wasn't long ago that their unit ranked last in efficiency during SEC play. The Wildcats have endured defensive issues, but one area where they're great is on the glass with the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the conference. KenPom data suggests Texas earn a notable offensive boost from offensive rebounds, so we don't want to overlook Kentucky's one defensive strength.
Texas's offense hasn't looked impressive at 10th among SEC teams in efficiency. The Longhorns are excellent at limiting turnovers at fourth in the league, but they're still 11th or worse in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage.
Kentucky has proven to be a better team overall. When we compare resumes, it's not even close as the Wildcats are significantly better at scoring while recently stepping up on defense. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with Kentucky.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kentucky +3.5
Kansas 
at Utah 
Despite losing five of 13 conference games, the Jayhawks are proving to be a dangerous team ranking 10th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart while beating Michigan State, Duke, and Iowa State, among others. They've suffered some tough road losses in recent weeks, but it's worth noting they haven't experienced any issues when playing against lesser Big 12 clubs with double-digit road wins over UCF, Cincinnati, and TCU - three teams that are comparable to or better than their Saturday opponent.
The Jayhawks are best on the defensive end sporting the fifth-best efficiency rating in the country and the second-best among Big 12 teams. During the conference season, Kansas' defense lead the league in effective, two-point, and three-point field goal percentages. They also sit top-three in rebounding and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The latter is extra noteworthy as Utah have the conference's second-highest free-throw attempt rate. They're also great at inside scoring by making over 52 percent of two-pointers in the Big 12, though Kansas is elite at inside defense, as noted above. The Utes have made under 30 percent of three-point attempts against league opponents - the second-worst mark - so the lack of outside scoring could be a significant problem given the Jayhawks' strengths.
When Kansas has the ball on Saturday, they'll likely enjoy a similar advantage. Their offense hasn't been as consistently great as their defense, yet they're still highly effective with the seventh-highest offensive rating in the Big 12 and substantially higher than Utah's defense at third-worst. The difference echoes in other areas with the Jayhawks' offense eighth or better for effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding while Utah's defense is last in turnovers and third-last in rebounding.
Nothing is promised in college basketball, but Kansas has performed consistently well against inferior opponents regardless of location. And considering how they match up against Utah, I like their odds of pulling away in the second half. I'm going with the Jayhawks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas -6.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Alabama -2.5
- Kentucky +3.5
- Kansas -6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
