This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Saturday college hoops slate often brings a lot of action this time of year, and this one is no exception. Here are my predictions for three select games tipping off later in the day.
Texas 
at Florida
The Longhorns won their first SEC game last time out on the road against the Sooners. The win was much needed based on a somewhat questionable resume up to this point as they rank 36th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart with their previous best wins coming against Saint Joseph's and N.C. State. Texas have had many other opportunities for a quality win, but they came up short against Ohio State, Connecticut, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Tennessee and now travel to Gainesville for their toughest road matchup yet.
The Gators, meanwhile, are coming off their second loss of the season in the form of a surprising one-point stumble to Missouri. Florida had won 15 of 16 games before this misstep and posted many dominant victories throughout, so this recent setback shouldn't hurt them too much - though the margin of error is tight if they want a top seed come March. Either way, Florida has already defeated North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee - the latter by a 30-point margin, so this team will undoubtedly be a tough out during the postseason.
When Texas has the ball Saturday, they'll face a stout Florida defense that rarely gives up an easy shot ranking 16th in defensive efficiency while limiting opponents to 43 percent on shots inside the arc and under 28 from outside for the fourth-best effective field goal percentage allowed in D-1. Florida's defense is strong in other areas, including the 87th-best rebounding percentage and 30th-best block percentage. The Longhorns' offense isn't terrible, though it's not particularly great in any areas at eighth in SEC efficiency during league competition and 10th or worse in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate.
On the other side, Florida's potent offensive attack will face a reeling Texas defense that's surrendered at least 73 points in all four conference matchups and an average of 79. Among SEC sides, they hold the third-worst defensive efficiency rating during the conference season and are bottom-four in effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Longhorns play great defense against lesser opponents, but they have lost five of six against teams with a top-50 offensive efficiency rating. The Gators are at No. 6, so Texas will need to step it up if they wants to avoid another blowout.
These two teams are on different levels. Florida's offensive attack is among the best in the nation while Texas hasn't performed well against elite offensive sides. The spread is large, but this is the kind of squad and circumstance that leads to a cover. I'm betting the Gators will come out ready to prove their last outing was a fluke and will take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -11
BYU 
at Utah
This pick is all about the matchup. The Cougars are proving to be a strong offensive team while the Utes are questionable defensively. BYU sits 27th in offensive efficiency and is much higher than Utah's 80th-ranked defense, though the split is further underlined when comparing more recent performances. During the conference season, BYU ranks fifth among all 16 Big 12 teams in offensive efficiency with an equivalent or better standing in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. This is overwhelmingly better than Utah, which carries the league's second-worst defensive efficiency rating during the same period and fourth-worst rebounding percentage. Whether you focus on season-long results or focus on conference-only data, we arrive at the same conclusion: The Cougars have a massive advantage at this end of the court.
When going in the other direction, the matchup is effectively even. For the season, Utah ranks 76th in offensive efficiency with BYU coming in at 81st on defense. The tight margin remains only when looking at conference stats as Utah are 12th on offense and BYU 13th on defense. The Cougars also match the Utes in turnover percentage and rebounding. One interesting note is that Utah has struggled with long-range shooting the past few weeks with a 27 percent on three-point attempts against league opponents. The Utes shot a bit better during non-conference play, though they had the eighth-easiest non-conference schedule among all D-1 teams per KenPom, so it seems the better defensive opponents are causing their percentages to regress. Either way, Utah don't appear to have any clear edge against BYU's defense.
Looking at the bottom line, we have three key facts: BYU scores more easily than Utah, rebounds better at both ends, and Utah's offense isn't much better than BYU's defense. And for what it's worth, BYU can claim a better resume. I'm going with the Cougars.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -1
Oregon State 
at San Francisco 
I'm glad to say I picked the Beavers in their triumphant upset over Gonzaga on Thursday. And based on Saturday's matchup, I'm going back to the well.
In my article for Oregon State's last matchup, I picked the home team partly as they were playing better than their record suggested having previously come close to beating Oregon, North Texas, and Santa Clara only losing by a combined seven points. Their offense also played well against league competition with the third-highest offensive efficiency rating among WCC teams while making 61 percent of two-pointers and 38 percent of threes while yielding the highest effective field goal percentage. San Francisco's defense doesn't come close to this level of performance at seventh in defensive efficiency with an equal or worse standing in effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and free-throw attempts allowed. They're also allowing WCC opponents to make 56 percent of two-point shots, not a good number considering Oregon State are first in that department.
The Dons have played well offensively since the conference season began, though they're not significantly better than the Beavers' defense with the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the WCC while Oregon State are fifth on defense. San Francisco also rank top-four in offensive rebounding and two-point field goal percentage, but Oregon State can match that on defense. So this side of the court is even.
Beating San Francisco won't be easy, but Oregon State has proven they can win against a good team. This pick ultimately comes down to the Beavers playing well offensively with a favorable matchup. I'm taking the points with Oregon State.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +3
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Florida -11
- BYU -1
- Oregon State +3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
