This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Just about all of the high-major conference teams are taking Thursday night off, but we've still got a few notable teams in action. Here are my predictions for the two marquee games on Thursday's college hoops slate.
Maryland 
at Nebraska 
The Terrapins have assembled an impressive resume, and barring a massive collapse, they are likely to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. They have won eight of 13 conference games, though it's worth noting that all five losses came on the road. They have won just two road conference games, one of which was a one-point win at Indiana, which required a game-winning shot on their final possession. The quality win counts all the same, but the point remains: this team isn't nearly as sharp when it travels.
The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, have found a second wind following a nearly disastrous stretch in which they lost six consecutive games. Nebraska lost two of the games by a single possession and another in overtime, so they still played well, even though the ball bounced in the wrong direction on multiple occasions. In any event, the Huskers have turned the ship around and won their last four games, including victories over Illinois, Oregon, and Ohio State.
When Maryland has the ball on Thursday, it will face a stiff defense that has fortified itself during Nebraka's winning streak. The Huskers have held each opponent to 72 points or fewer during regulation. Nebraska has proven to have an all-around solid defense, recording above-average numbers in just about every key category. The Huskers have the 34th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation and rank in the top 140 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage, and it ranks in the top 80 in defensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate allowed. This should help give us a good matchup, as even though Maryland's offense slightly outranks Nebraska's defense in the efficiency standings, the Terrapins haven't played as well on the road. According to KenPom, their three least efficient offensive performances have come on the road against Big Ten teams, all losses. Perhaps even more interesting, the teams that caused these woeful performances were Washington, Northwestern, and Ohio State. Coincidentally, Maryland had its fourth-least efficient offensive performance on Jan. 19, when it hosted Nebraska.
When Nebraska has the ball, it has a tall task on its hands. The Huskers have the 60th-best offensive efficiency rating in the nation, a bit lower than the Terps' defense at No. 20. The visitors appear to have an uphill battle, but they do a few things well that should help their cause. First, they're careful with the ball, posting the seventh-best offensive turnover percentage among Big Ten teams during league competition. Second, they're physical when they attack the rim, ranking sixth in the league in free-throw attempt rate. Third, they excel at inside scoring, making 53 percent of two-point attempts against conference foes, the seventh-highest percentage. It's also worth noting that Nebraska has already defeated multiple teams with comparable defenses, including UCLA, Illinois, and Ohio State.
When these two teams previously clashed just a few weeks ago, we had a tie-ball game with under a minute left before Maryland scored the go-ahead points and won 69-66. Both teams have played at a high level over the past couple of weeks, so I believe we'll have another tight game on Thursday. That said, I think the home court will make all the difference for the reasons above. I'm taking the Huskers.
Additionally, I also like our odds for a low-scoring game. As mentioned above, Maryland typically doesn't perform as well offensively when it travels, and both teams have strong defenses. Stylistically, Nebraska plays at an even pace, ranking close to the D-1 average and slightly below average in the Big Ten during the conference season. Maryland tends to play faster offensively, but its defense consistently forces long possessions, ranking 330th in average defensive possession length. If Thursday's game is anything like the first encounter between these two teams, we can expect another defensive battle. I'm also on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 147.5 and Nebraska -1.5
San Francisco 
at Gonzaga 
The Dons have flown somewhat under the radar, finding their way into second place in the West Coast Conference standings, one spot ahead of Gonzaga. They have earned several quality wins throughout the season, and we don't want to minimize their accomplishments; however, it's worth noting that all of their success has come at home. San Francisco has traveled to play against five teams that rank in the top 110 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and it lost all five, with four coming by nine-plus points. Now, the Dons face their most challenging road trip yet.
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are nearly perfect at home, with their only loss coming against Santa Clara in mid-January. Their other two conference losses came at Oregon State in overtime and at Saint Mary's by four points, two games that could've easily gone the other way. Either way, Gonzaga has once again emerged as the best team in the WCC according to KenPom's overall efficiency standings, ranking 11th in the nation.
Gonzaga's key to success has been its explosive offense, one of the most consistent in college basketball. The Bulldogs have the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, their seventh consecutive season with a top-10 rating if the season ended today. The Bulldogs have remained just as potent during the conference season, leading the league in efficiency, turnovers, and free-throw percentage. They also rank second in offensive rebounding and fourth in effective field goal percentage. At the same time, San Francisco's defense, though decent, has been extremely vulnerable in a couple of areas. Namely, the Dons have the third-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed among WCC teams, a troublesome trait considering Gonzaga has made over 80 percent from the charity stripe. Second, USF often gets gashed on the interior, allowing WCC foes to make 57 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst mark allowed in the conference. The Bulldogs have made 57 percent of two-point attempts, the 14th-highest percentage in the nation, so this kind of stat does not bode well for the road team's defense. Gonzaga has also made exactly 57 percent against conference opponents, further underscoring its consistency.
At the other end of the court, the Bulldogs aren't quite as elite, but they're still playing at a high level. Gonzaga has the second-highest defensive efficiency rating among WCC teams, and it ranks in the top four of the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, defensive rebounding, and two-point FG percentage allowed. The Dons aren't bad offensively, although Gonzaga's defense outranks them in all the aforementioned categories. It's safe to say the home team clearly takes the edge on this end, too.
With a win, the Bulldogs can jump ahead of the Dons in the standings by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker. Gonzaga hardly needs the motivation, but the outcome would be fitting and re-affirm the popular notion that 'the cream rises to the top.' Considering USF's struggles away from the Sobrato Center and Gonzaga's powerful offensive attack, I like our odds of the home team pulling away in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -14.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Maryland at Nebraska - Under 147.5
- Nebraska -1.5
- Gonzaga -14.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
