This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a Big Ten triple-header headlining Thursday's college hoops slate, with several potential NCAA Tournament teams in action. Here are my predictions for each.
Ohio State 
at Penn State 
The Buckeyes are coming off back-to-back wins, which was much needed after losing five of their first seven conference games. Ohio State has a few high-quality wins, such as victories over Texas, Kentucky, and Purdue, though it also has already suffered eight total losses, several being blowouts.
The Nittany Lions are similarly desperate for a win. Penn State started the conference season at 2-1 with wins against Purdue and Northwestern but has since lost six of seven. Two of the losses came by a point, and any one of these games would've counted as a quality win, per KenPom, so the Nittany Lions aren't as bad as the recent pile of losses indicates.
When analyzing Ohio State's offense, it's easy to see why the team has taken so many losses. It's incredibly sloppy with the ball. The Buckeyes have the third-worst offensive efficiency rating among Big Ten teams during conference play, and they have the worst turnover percentage in the league. Digging further into the stats, they also rank last in the conference in non-steal turnover percentage, meaning they're suffering from unforced errors most of the time. This issue has plagued them all season long, as they rank 348th among all D-1 teams in non-steal turnover percentage.
As it turns out, Penn State is not the team you want to face if you have a giveaway problem. The Nittany Lions' defense has the third-highest turnover percentage during Big Ten conference play. In the same period, Penn State ranks second in steals, so this is clearly an aggressive defense that forces the issue. This has been a consistent strength for them all season, as they rank in the top 40 of the nation in the same two categories.
Offensively, the Nittany Lions have performed at a decent level. They rank in the top 50 of the nation in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and two-point FG percentage, giving them multiple strong areas. During the conference season, however, their best skill has been attacking the basket and drawing contact. Penn State has the third-highest free-throw attempt rate among Big Ten teams, a key stat because Ohio State has struggled to guard without fouling. The Buckeyes have the fourth-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed in the conference during the same period, and this is once again another issue that has plagued them all season. Ohio State ranks 294th in free-throw attempt rate among all D-1 teams, so it's hard to imagine this problem improving overnight.
It's not easy backing a team that's lost six of seven, although it's worth noting that only one of the losses came at University Park, Penn State's home arena. In this one loss, which came by a single point against Oregon, the Nittany Lions held a six-point lead with under four minutes remaining, giving them close to a 90 percent chance of winning the game, per KenPom. Either way, given the matchup advantages listed above and the location of Thursday's game, I like our odds of seeing Penn State defend its home court. I'm going with the Nittany Lions.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State -2.5
Illinois 
at Nebraska 
When the Fighting Illini have the ball on Wednesday, they'll face a Nebraska defense that has struggled to get stops against conference opponents. The Cornhuskers have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating among Big Ten teams during league play, and they also have the second-worst effective field goal percentage allowed. At the same time, Illinois has played well offensively, recording the seventh-highest efficiency rating in the league. It's playing well in many other critical areas, topping Nebraska's defense ranking in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding. Add it all up, and Illinois has a clear upper hand on this side of the court.
When the Huskers have the ball, they'll have to overcome one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Illinois has the third-best defensive efficiency rating among Big Ten teams during the conference season, and it leads the league in defensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Huskers have struggled to score points throughout the year, but the problem has been more pronounced on the road. In its two recent home losses, Nebraska scored 155 total points, substantially better than its output outside of Lincoln.
One more important note for this game is that Illinois pushes the pace as much as any other team in the nation. The Illini rank eighth in adjusted tempo among all D-1 teams, and they lead the Big Ten in pace during the conference season, further cementing its relentlessly fast-paced style. The Huskers rank in the middle of the pack in tempo, a few ticks above the D-1 average, so they don't mind participating in a track meet. In fact, teams coached by Fred Hoiberg have historically played at a similar lightning speed, posting a top-50 tempo ranking in six consecutive seasons at one point.
Considering all the factors involved, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. We should see a ton of possessions in this matchup, giving us a good opportunity to beat the total number. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 154.5
Oregon 
at UCLA 
When these two teams previously clashed back in December, we saw a back-and-forth affair that ended with UCLA banking in a game-winning three-point shot in the final second. Since this outcome, each team has played relatively well, though both have also regressed to a small degree, as expected, considering the tougher opponents over the past month.
The Bruins' defense provides a good example, as it's come down to earth against conference competition. UCLA has the 20th-best defensive efficiency rating for the whole season, but when we focus on games against Big Ten opponents, it ranks eighth in the league.
The key for Oregon in this matchup is its ability to get to the charity stripe. The Ducks rank 71st among all D-1 teams in free-throw attempt rate, and this edge has carried over into the conference season, where they rank eighth among Big Ten teams. UCLA's defense's primary issue has been getting stops without fouling, ranking 291st for the whole season and last in the league during conference play. Oregon makes 76 percent of its foul shots, the 64th-best mark, so this is an area that can greatly benefit the Ducks.
At the other end of the court, UCLA is again close to the league average, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency during conference competition. Oregon plays at a similar level defensively, ranking ninth in efficiency in the same period. The matchup is close down the line, though it's worth noting that the Ducks' defense has an edge over the Bruins' offense in rebounding, free-throw attempts allowed, steals, effective field goal percentage, and two-point FG percentage.
Overall, this matchup is incredibly tight. That said, Oregon has the better resume, and it's played well in most of its road games. I'm taking the points with the Ducks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon +4.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Penn State -2.5
- Illinois at Nebraska - Over 154.5
- Oregon +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
