This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
March Madness is ready for blast-off. Here are my best bets for Thursday's Round of 64 slate.
Michigan State 
vs. Mississippi State 
Michigan State earned its ticket to the Big Dance for the 26th consecutive season, the longest active streak among all teams. Last season, Michigan State made it to the Sweet 16 before losing to Kansas State in overtime, and this year's squad returned the core of its roster, ranking 14th in minutes continuity among all D1 teams, so this team undoubtedly has high potential even though it had a few disappointing moments during the regular season. A popular notion this time of year is that guard play will make or break a team in the tournament, and if that's true, then the Spartans are in fine shape. They are led by senior point guard A.J. Hoggard, someone who has recorded a top-four assist rate in the Big Ten during conference season in each of the past three years, and star guard Tyson Walker, a dynamic player at both ends of the court who can shoot among the best of them.
Mississippi State, in contrast, has made back-to-back appearances in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008-2009, with only one single appearance in between. But like the Spartans, the Bulldogs also returned a good portion from last year's roster, a squad that made the cut of 68 teams but couldn't get past Pittsburgh in the First Four. Time will tell if the extra experience leads to any better results, which is not always the case.
In comparing these two teams, they are similar in that both are much better on defense compared to offense. When we dig deeper, however, a few things stand out.
First, Mississippi State has a one-dimensional offensive attack. The Bulldogs are great at inside scoring, making 54 percent of shots inside the arc, the 56th-highest mark in the nation, but not so good from the perimeter, making under 33 percent of three-pointers. This isn't a big deal against weaker defensive teams, but Michigan State ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency among all D1 teams, and it's particularly stout in the paint, holding opponents to 47 percent on two-pointers, the 50th-best allowed.
This is one challenge, but the second item that stands out is Mississippi State's turnover issues, ranking 290th among all D1 teams for the season and ranking last in the SEC during conference play. This problem has persisted the entire season, and it's music to the Spartans' ears, as they rank 72st in defensive turnover percentage and third in the Big Ten during league play, a consistent strength. This is also true at the other end of the court where Michigan State ranks 42nd in offensive turnover percentage, a logical standing considering who it has in the backcourt.
If those aren't enough, Michigan State also has an edge in many other key categories. Mississippi State made under 63 percent of its free throw attempts during the conference season, the worst in the SEC, while Michigan State made 72 percent in the same period. Michigan State also has significant advantages in the block and steal categories, where Mississippi State ranks in the bottom quartile of all teams in offensive block and steal percentages, and Michigan State ranks closer to the top in defensive block and steal percentages.
All in all, this game will probably be a defensive grind, but when the dust finally settles, I like Michigan State's odds of advancing. I'm taking the Spartans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State -1.5
N.C. State vs. Texas Tech 
Against all odds, NC State won the ACC tournament by winning five games in five days en route to punching its ticket to the Big Dance. This was the first time the Wolfpack had won five consecutive games all season, and it required something else it hadn't done up to this point, play great defense over several games. Before the postseason started, NC State had allowed at least 79 points in its last four consecutive games and then allowed 85 points to Louisville in the opening round of the ACC tournament. The Wolfpack rank 47th in offensive efficiency and 89th on defense, so this is a score-first team that likes to get up-n-down the court, ranking 102nd in offensive possession length.
Texas Tech didn't show it in its loss to Houston in the Big 12 tournament, but this is also an offensively oriented team. The Red Raiders rank 23rd in the nation in offensive efficiency, and they had the third-highest rating in the Big 12 during conference play, perhaps a more noteworthy stat given the league's elite level of competition. At its best, Texas Tech can bury points on any given opponent. The Red Raiders scored 78 points at Texas, 85 points at Oklahoma, 79 points against Kansas, 82 points against TCU, 78 points against Baylor, and 81 points against BYU, all wins. One important note, forward Darrion Williams suffered an ankle injury in last week's game against BYU, but the latest reports are optimistic that he'll play. Either way, the Red Raiders have torched several teams with better defenses compared to N.C. State, so the latter will have its hands full on Thursday.
When the Wolfpack have the ball, they also have a couple of advantages in their favor. First, NC State is one of the most careful teams in the nation, logging the ninth-best offensive turnover percentage. Texas Tech ranks in line with the D1 average on the defensive side in the same category, so NC State shouldn't be too rattled in this matchup. Second, NC State was among the best offensive rebounding teams in the ACC during conference play, ranking fourth in offensive rebounding percentage. At the same time, Texas Tech was one of the worst at securing defensive boards in the Big 12, posting the second-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the league.
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I'm betting that we'll see a back-and-forth game with each team trading baskets at a quick pace. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145.5
Drake 
vs. Washington State
It's not very often we have a 10-seed favored against a seven-seed, but here we are. On paper, the current line is all the more curious considering that Washington State ranks higher than Drake on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, but after digging into the numbers, it's clear why the line favors the Bulldogs. This is not a great matchup for Washington State.
When the Cougars have the ball, they face a comparable defensive challenge in Drake, with the two sides close to even in efficiency. The real task, however, comes on the glass. Washington State has relied on its offensive rebounding abilities for much of the season, ranking 62nd in offensive rebounding percentage, but Drake will most likely neutralize this strength, as the Bulldogs boast the highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams. Additionally, Drake is also solid at causing turnovers and limiting free throw opportunities, ranking above average compared to D1 teams in both categories.
When the Bulldogs have the ball, they also have a formidable task in going against an equal challenge in Washington State. The difference in this case, however, is that Drake does a couple of things particularly well that give it a good chance of advancing in the tournament. First, the Bulldogs rank 14th in offensive turnover percentage and they're facing a defense that ranks 263rd in the same category, likely leading to a shot attempt on most offensive possessions. Second, Drake is a sharp shooting team. The Bulldogs made 37 percent of shots from behind the arc this season while attempting them at a high frequency, making them a dangerous team from anywhere on the court. For comparison sake, Drake has three starters who are making over 36 percent while attempting at least 95 three-pointers, with two of them over 40 percent, while Washington State only has one player that fits the same criteria.
Overall, Drake has a stronger offensive attack while matching up well defensively against Washington State. The Bulldogs are better at shooting, better at taking care of the ball, and better at drawing contact. The Cougars are a tough group to beat, and it won't be easy, but Drake appears to have the appropriate skillset needed to care of business. I'm backing the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Drake -1
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Michigan State -1.5
- N.C. State vs. Texas Tech - Over 145.5
- Drake -1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
North Carolina sports betting launched March 11 with a wide variety of great online sportsbooks. Some of our favorite North Carolina sportsbook promos include the Caesars North Carolina promo code and the Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina promo code.
