Brief introduction, highlighting either your personal results of late, or anything unique/new about the slate of games on a particular day.
Tarleton State at 
Florida International
I don't always like to be a slave to KenPom projections, but when the maestro projects a total (148) that's four+ points higher that the Vegas total, you take note. I also have enough respect for Tarleton State to keep this competitive, as this is a team that head coach Billy Gillespie lead to a 16-point neutral-court victory against Boston College last year (and also played Arizona State to within three points on the road). On top of that, early indications from the season are suggesting that the new block/charge guidelines are amounting to more whistles, so overs have been hot. Stay on the overs before the market catches on to this trend.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 143.5 (DraftKings)
Stephen F. Austin at 
Middle Tennessee
Sticking to the trend of overs, this is a matchup between two offenses that are already clicking early in the season. Granted it was an NAIA opponent, but SFA put up 96 points on 53.6 percent shooting in its season opener Monday. MTSU looked even better against a more legitimate opponent, beating its implied total by five in a 17-point home victory against a quality Northern Kentucky team out of the Horizon League. KenPom is only 2.5 points above Vegas in this game, but given the trend I referred to in the last recommendation, I'm going to ride as many overs that jump out.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 143.5 (DraftKings)
New Mexico at Saint Mary's
It was a tale of two games in the season openers for each team. On one hand, New Mexico routed Texas Southern -- a team voted to win the SWAC this year -- by 37 points, covering a 17.5-point spread by nearly 20. On the other, Saint Mary's annihilated DII Stanislaus State by 79 points, effectively teaching us nothing.
Next, take a look at roster turnover from last season. Saint Mary's loses valuable pieces such as point guard Logan Johnson and power forward Kyle Bowen, while failing to make significant additions via the transfer portal. Meanwhile, New Mexico returns one of the country's finest backcourt combos in Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn, who combined for 35.9 ppg last season. Sure, the Lobos lost their frontcourt, but loaded up on transfer portal talent in the form of Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona), Mustapha Amzil (Dayton) and Jemarl Baker (Fresno State). So far, it's working out.
Mix that with the fact that KenPom has just three points separating the two, and I'm taking the road dogs here. Plus, it's not as if the Gaels were a cover machine last year, as they went 16-2-2 against the spread. Take seven points if you have accss to PointsBet, but I'm also fine going +6.5 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I'd even consider a sprinkle on the +225 moneyline.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico +7 (PointsBet)
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for [Day]:
- Tarleton State / FIU - Over 143.5
- SFA / MTSU - Over 143.5
- New Mexico +7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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