This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday's college basketball slate brings us pivotal conference matchups lined up across the board. Steve Peralta returns to predict some of the action and offer his best bets of the day.
Marquette at 
Connecticut
Marquette enters Tuesday's game riding a five-game winning streak and has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Golden Eagles aren't just on a hot streak, though -- they've essentially been on fire for the entire season. Marquette currently has a 19-5 record, with two of its losses coming in overtime, and perhaps more impressively, it is 17-7 against the spread. The Golden Eagles have covered in nine of their last 11 games, so they are still performing in top form.
Connecticut, meanwhile, has won two straight games after going through a stretch where it lost six of eight, basically a full month's worth of games -- obviously not good any way you look at it. The Huskies' two most recent matchups were against DePaul and Georgetown, so Tuesday's game will give us a much better sense of where UConn stands following its recent skid. The Huskies barely beat Georgetown by six points, and we're talking about an opponent that has gone 1-32 against the Big East since last season, so it remains to be seen if UConn is truly back on track after a tumultuous January.
Regarding the head-to-head matchup, Marquette appears to have the edge on both ends of the court. During league play, the Golden Eagles have the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big East, including the top ranking in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage and two-point field goal percentage. Marquette is also sharp on defense, ranking fourth in the conference in efficiency while also boasting the highest defensive turnover rate. These ranks and stats are all higher than UConn, which ranks fifth in the Big East in both offensive and defensive efficiency since the conference season started. All things considered, these teams appear close to equal, with Marquette edging out UConn if we focus on more recent results. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette +4.5
Louisville at 
Pittsburgh
As most college hoops fans are well aware by now, Louisville is in dire straits. The Cardinals are 3-20 on the season, and their underlying stats are just as bad as one might imagine. During conference play, Louisville ranks second-to-last among ACC teams in offensive efficiency, two-point field goal percentage and free-throw percentage, and it also ranks the worst in offensive turnover percentage. Not to discredit its ineptitude in the latter, Louisville has the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage in the country. Furthermore, through five conference road games this season, the Cardinals are averaging under 63 points per game, and that's with a rather soft road schedule up to this point, facing teams such as Florida State, Boston College and Notre Dame. Louisville has played better on defense both before and during the conference season, so if the Cardinals want to keep the game close, they'll need to step up defensively.
Pittsburgh, in contrast, is having a resurgent season after several years of losing. Overall, the Panthers have succeeded by playing a balanced brand of basketball, ranking top-six in the ACC in both offensive and defensive efficiency since the conference season tipped off. Pittsburgh has now won five of its last six games, clearly playing well. The Panthers most recently defeated Miami and North Carolina in back-to-back games, the latter in Chapel Hill, while also holding the opponents to under 70 points.
Given the strong play of Pittsburgh and the struggles of Louisville, this matchup has all the makings of a blowout. The line is massive, but, even still, Pittsburgh has now covered the spread in 15 of its last 18 games, so I'm not about to bet against them. That being said, the Panthers do prefer playing at a slower pace, so it's possible they'll 'take the air out of the ball in the closing minutes if they have a big lead. These two teams already played back on Jan. 18, and it went exactly as expected, with Pittsburgh winning comfortably, 75-54. I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 138.5
Auburn at 
Texas A&M
Auburn has now lost three of its last four games, and it all started with its home-court loss to Texas A&M on Jan. 25, ending the nation's longest active home winning streak at 28 games. The Tigers lost that game in an anti-climatic manner, 79-63, although this is less surprising when considering how these two teams stack up against each other.
Texas A&M has now won 10 of its last 12 games, with its only losses in that span coming at Kentucky and at Arkansas. Just as their win-loss record suggests, the Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season, especially on defense. During league play, Texas A&M has the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the SEC while also holding opponents to under 46 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the fifth-lowest percentage allowed.
The latter stat is critical because Auburn has had major issues with long-range shooting throughout the entire season. The Tigers are making under 29 percent of their three-point attempts, one of the worst percentages among all D1 teams. They are actually shooting worse against league competition (at 27 percent), so it's hard to imagine they'll suddenly get better overnight.
Texas A&M also has an edge over Auburn on offense, recording the second-highest offensive efficiency rating among SEC teams during conference play. Moreover, the Aggies also rank first in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate and second in free-throw attempt rate, which is particularly relevant in this matchup because Auburn has struggled with committing fouls. The Tigers rank last in the SEC in defensive free-throw attempt rate, making this matchup far from ideal from an Auburn point of view.
Looking at the bottom line, Texas A&M ranks higher than Auburn in both offensive and defensive efficiency since the conference season started, and it also ranks higher in rebounding on both sides of the court in the same time frame. The Aggies absolutely dominated Auburn the last time these two teams played, and I'm betting they'll walk away with the W once again. Given a short line, I'll take the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M -3
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Marquette +4.5
- Louisville at Pittsburgh - Under 138.5
- Texas A&M -3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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