This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday brings us some noteworthy matchups in the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC, among others. Here are my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
St. John's 
at Villanova 
The Red Storm has played like a hurricane over the past month, but Wednesday's matchup presents a different challenge on two different fronts.
First, St. John's has put itself in position for a top seed in March Madness thanks to its elite defensive performance. The Johnnies boast the highest defensive marks among Big East teams in many categories: efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and two-point FG percentage allowed. Their only relative weakness appears to be on the perimeter, where it has allowed opponents to make 33 percent of shots from beyond the arc, nearly in line with the D-1 average. This would typically be a negligible note in most matchups; however, this is exactly the opening that Villanova can use.
The Wildcats are among the best offensive teams in the nation, sporting the 16th-highest rating in the nation and second-highest in the Big East during conference play. The key to this production stems from their exceptional shooting abilities, knocking down 40 percent from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest mark in the nation. Villanova has remained a hot-shooting team all year, making a league-leading 39 percent against Big East foes. Considering these numbers, it's no surprise to see that the Wildcats score 39 percent of total points off three-pointers, the 21st-highest percentage in the nation. If there's ever a team that can take advantage of the perimeter, it's Villanova.
Second, while the Johnnies are arguably the best on defense, their offensive attack has not come close to matching the same level of play. St. John's ranks 83rd in offensive efficiency, which is not terrible but clearly needs improvement if it wants to make a run in March. The real issue for the team is its inability to shoot from long range. The Red Storm has made a league-worst 23 percent of three-point attempts against conference opponents, and it ranks near the bottom of the nation in points off three-pointers, giving us a team that relies on inside scoring for its offensive production. This connects to the Johnnies' best skill, collecting offensive boards. St. John's leads the league in offensive rebounding percentage, usually a significant advantage over most teams; however, Villanova has the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage among Big East teams during league competition. This note could make all the difference in this matchup, as KenPom data suggests that rebounds significantly affect St. John's offensive production. The Johnnies are making under 49 percent from inside the arc against conference opponents, the third-worst mark, underscoring their need for second-chance opportunities.
It's tough to bet against St. John's, but at the same time, I'd argue it's more challenging to win 11 games in a row, which is what it's attempting to do on Wednesday. Betting on a jump-shooting team like Villanova comes with its own risks, but in this matchup, at home, my money is on the better offensive team. I'm taking the Wildcats.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +3
Iowa 
at Rutgers
The Hawkeyes have lost six of their last seven games, with their only win being a one-point home victory against Penn State, which happens to be at the bottom of the Big Ten standings at 3-11. Iowa's problem is the same one it's had most years under head coach Fran McCaffrey: a lack of defense. The Hawkeyes are inevitably coached up on offense every year, with defense being an afterthought.
Iowa's other issue is that this year's squad isn't quite as explosive, ranking 31st in offensive efficiency. Most teams would be glad to have this standing, although this would actually be Iowa's worst mark since 2017, when they finished No. 43 in offensive efficiency. In any event, this year's team is a disaster defensively. Iowa has the worst defensive efficiency rating among Big Ten teams, both during and outside of the conference season, and it ranks last in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, three-point FG percentage allowed, and two-point FG percentage allowed. It also has the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage among Big Ten teams. These defensive shooting numbers are horrendous, so it's easy to see how second-chance opportunities for the opposing offense will just about seal the Hawkeyes' fate.
Rutgers undoubtedly likes to see this kind of scouting report, as the Scarlett Knights boast the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage among Big Ten teams during conference play. They also rank eighth in turnovers and fifth in free-throw attempts, giving them two other positive skill sets that should help on Wednesday. Rutgers has struggled with inside scoring, making 50 percent on two-point attempts, but as it turns out, Iowa gives up 56 percent on shots inside the arc, 336th in the nation. Given this matchup, and led by potential lottery picks Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, Rutgers should have a much easier time scoring on Wednesday.
When playing in the other direction, the Scarlett Knights struggled early in the season, but they've tightened up their defense over the past several weeks. Rutgers ranks 94th in defensive efficiency for the season, not a good standing, but it ranks 11th among Big Ten teams during league competition, noticeably better. This holds true in most areas, too, ranking 12th or better in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, defensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Before this year, head coach Steve Pikiell had established Rutgers as a strong defensive program, finishing the last two seasons with a defensive rating in the top six of the nation. It's logical, then, that coach Pikiell has coached up his team on this end of the court as the season has progressed.
For Iowa, even though its offense is still highly proficient, relatively speaking, it still has a few severe flaws. Namely, it has the worst offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten and second-worst free-throw attempt rate. These stats don't automatically spell doom, but this is not what you want when you have a Swiss cheese defense.
Rutgers defeated Illinois by nine points in its last home game and defeated UCLA by seven points about a month ago. The Scarlett Knights don't have much depth past their two phenoms, but this should be less of an issue when trying to score on Iowa's defense. All things considered, I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers -6.5
Stanford 
at Georgia Tech 
The key to this pick is Stanford's offensive attack and Georgia Tech's lack of one.
When the Cardinal has the ball on Wednesday, it will face a respectable defensive challenge in the form of Georgia Tech. That said, Stanford still has the upper hand. It has the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating among ACC teams during conference play, with Georgia Tech's defense trailing a couple of slots at seventh. More importantly, Stanford has a massive advantage on the glass. During league competition, it has the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference, while the Yellow Jackets have the third-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the same span. The Cardinal also has an edge in effective field goal percentage and two-point FG percentage, so it should likely capitalize on second-chance opportunities.
When the Yellow Jackets have the ball, they will face a defense that isn't quite as stout as their own but still not bad. Stanford ranks 10th in defensive efficiency among ACC teams, and it sports an equal or better standing in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, three-point FG percentage allowed, and two-point FG percentage allowed. The Cardinal's defense outranks Georgia Tech's offense in each of these categories, which should make it a challenge for the home team to score. The Yellow Jackets have the second-worst offensive efficiency rating in the ACC since the conference season started, so scoring points has often been a chore for them.
Overall, these two teams are on entirely different levels offensively. At the same time, I would argue their defenses are in the same ballpark, with Stanford's offense holding a distinct edge on the glass over Georgia Tech's defense. For these reasons, I'm taking Stanford in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford +2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Villanova +3
- Rutgers -6.5
- Stanford +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
