This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With Wednesday's college hoops slate, we're going slightly off the beaten path. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's selections, I present my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
LSU at Georgia 
When the Bulldogs have the ball on Wednesday, they'll meet a fair challenge with the Tigers' defense, although one side has a colossal edge in one critical area. Georgia is among the best offensive-rebounding teams in the nation, recording the 18th-best percentage among all D-1 teams. It's hard to find a more significant mismatch, as LSU ranks 326th in the nation in defensive rebounding. This issue has not gone away, as the Tigers also rank second-worst in the SEC during conference play. Outside of this category, the matchup on this end of the court is relatively even.
When the Tigers have the ball, they'll encounter a defense that's tough to crack. Georgia has the 21st-best defensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, with LSU's offense further down the list at No. 108. The Tigers have played just as poorly against conference foes, if not worse, recording the third-worst defensive rating in the league. It's particularly dreadful with ball handling, ranking 317th in turnover percentage. This problem has again continued through league competition, where it ranks second-worst in the conference and worst in offensive steals. This weakness plays perfectly into the Bulldogs' paws, as they've been highly effective at causing chaos, ranking fourth in the SEC in turnovers and sixth in steals.
It's easy to kick a team when it's down, though sometimes the numbers are impossible to ignore. This is the case with LSU, which has lost four straight and seven of eight overall, only one of two SEC teams that doesn't have multiple conference victories.
In contrast, Georgia has won three of its four home conference games by double-digits, with the only exception being a two-point loss to Auburn. LSU has lost all four of its road games by at least seven points. Considering Georgia's strengths and the location of Wednesday's game, I like the Bulldogs' odds of winning comfortably. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgia -8.5
Wake Forest 
at Stanford 
This matchup is a textbook example of strength versus strength and weakness against weakness.
At one end of the court, a respectable Stanford team will face a stout defense in the form of Wake Forest. Since the conference season started, the Cardinal have the fifth-best offensive efficiency rating among all ACC teams, while the Demon Deacons are third-best defensively. The overall edge for Wake Forest echoes down the line in various other categories, such as effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempts. The real key, however, is turnovers. Stanford has been much sloppier against conference foes, ranking 11th in turnover and 15th in steal percentages among ACC teams. At the same time, Wake Forest has played aggressively on defense, recording the second-highest defensive turnover and fourth-highest steal percentages in the league.
When playing in the other direction, both teams are substantially weaker. Wake Forest was lousy offensively early in the year, though it has played better against league competition, logging the 12th-best offensive efficiency rating in the ACC. Stanford's defense is a few notches higher, ranking ninth in efficiency, though there's one area in particular that stands out. Namely, Wake Forest has the highest free-throw attempt rate in the league during the conference season, while Stanford has had fouling issues all season. The Cardinal rank 245th in free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams, and it's 12th in the ACC, giving Wake Forest a sizable advantage at the charity stripe. It's also worth noting that the Demon Deacons are among the best from close range, making over 53 percent of two-point attempts, which is the second-highest mark in the ACC. The Cardinal has allowed opponents to make 51 percent of two-point field goals, the 12th in the conference.
This matchup is tight overall, but a closer look reveals the visitors have noteworthy advantages at both ends of the court. Given the facts above, my money is on the Demon Deacons in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wake Forest +2
North Carolina State 
at California 
This pick is all about the Golden Bears and their offensive attack. They're not necessarily the best in the ACC, logging the eighth-highest offensive rating during conference play, but they're exceptional in two important areas, both of which play against their opponent.
First, California is among the best at collecting offensive boards, while NC State is among the worst at securing the glass. The Golden Bears have the 27th-highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams and are first in the ACC during league play, with the Wolfpack falling at the other end of the standings, sitting at 314th in defensive rebounding and 15th in the conference. Second, California also ranks first in the ACC in offensive turnover percentage. It wasn't as impressive in this area early in the season, but the numbers don't lie; this has turned into a key strength. This is especially important in this matchup because KenPom data suggests that NC State relies on causing this stat for its defensive success, with turnovers correlating to its defensive output almost to the same extent as effective field goal percentage allowed. The Wolfpack rank seventh in defensive turnovers among ACC teams, so this is also typically a strength, though they don't always face a team that protects the ball like California.
The Golden Bears are weak defensively, but, as it turns out, the Wolfpack aren't much better offensively. During conference play, California ranks 16th in defensive efficiency among ACC teams, with NC State coming in at 17th on offense. The Wolfpack are above-average in turnovers and offensive rebounding, but they're dreadful in most other areas. They rank in the bottom four of the conference in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and two-point field goal percentage. California can't make many boasts on defense, but it's respectable at stopping close-range shots, limiting opponents to 51 percent, an above-average mark within the ACC.
Overall, NC State is reeling, riding a six-game losing streak entering Wednesday. And, for what it's worth, its resume isn't as good as the home team's. According to KenPom, they still have zero quality wins. The Golden Bears, on the other hand, already have two quality wins: a five-point win at USC in November and a three-point win at N.C. State in mid-January. All things considered, I like the home team's odds of taking care of business on Wednesday. I'm taking the Golden Bears.
College Basketball Best Bet: California -3
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Georgia -8.5
- Wake Forest +2
- California -3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
