This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate brings us more action from all across the country, including all five major conferences. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Wednesday evening.
Indiana 
at Northwestern 
The Hoosiers are coming off their best win of the season, a road overtime win at Ohio State. The win is nice, though it's only their second high-quality victory, their first being a road win at Penn State (via Philadelphia). In any event, Indiana will need to step it up over the course of the next several weeks if it wants any chance at dancing in March. As things currently stand, KenPom projects Indiana as an underdog in its next eight games, with only 12 total remaining.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, are coming off what was nearly their best win of the season. They had a fair chance at upsetting Michigan on the road but fell in overtime. Before this, Northwestern had already defeated Illinois and Maryland, giving it a pair of big-time wins to bolster its resume. It's not likely that it will hear its name called on Selection Sunday, but KenPom projects the Wildcats as the favorites in eight of 13 remaining games. They have a chance if they can steal a couple of wins outside of these projections.
The key for Northwestern is its defense. The Wildcats have the 25th-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, and this high level of play has mostly carried over against tougher competition. During league play, Northwestern ranks eighth in defensive efficiency and seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers and rebounding. In the same period, Indiana has underwhelmed offensively. The Hoosiers rank 78th in offensive efficiency, not ideal to begin with, and they've played worse against conference competition. During league play, Indiana ranks 13th in offensive efficiency among Big Ten teams and has made under 49 percent of two-pointers and under 31 percent of three-pointers, yielding the third-worst effective field goal percentage in the league. The Hoosiers are above average at rebounding and not turning the ball over, although those areas don't mean as much when a team can't make its shots.
Indiana has played slightly better at the other end of the court, though not substantially. It ranks 11th in the Big Ten during conference play, so it's noticeably below average compared to its league-mates. The Hoosiers are good at rebounding but fall below average in several other important areas, such as defensive turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage allowed, and free-throw attempts allowed. They also allowed Big Ten opponents to make 55 percent of two-point shots, 13th in the conference, a key weakness because Northwestern has relied more on two-point attempts for its scoring output.
Overall, Northwestern is the better defensive team, and it has a more impressive resume up to this point. All things considered, I like our odds with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern -5.5
Virginia Tech 
at Georgia Tech 
This pick is all about the Yellow Jackets' offensive attack, or rather, a lack thereof.
Georgia Tech ranks 168th in offensive efficiency, a terrible standing for a high-major team, but it's actually played worse against league competition. The Yellow Jackets have the second-worst offensive efficiency rating among all 18 ACC teams during the conference season. They also rank in the bottom four in effective field goal percentage, another troubling combination. In the event we have a close game, they have made 65 percent from the charity stripe, the worst mark in the league. Truly not many nice things to say about it.
At the same time, Virginia Tech's defense has been awful, though it's been slightly better in recent weeks. The Hokies rank 15th in defensive efficiency among ACC teams during conference play, again not good, but at least it's comparatively better than the competition. Virginia Tech's defense also outranks Georgia Tech's offense in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempts.
At the other end of the court, the Yellow Jackets are decidedly better, though that statement is also true for the Hokies. Georgia Tech's defense outranks Virginia Tech's offense in efficiency, but the Hokies have the upper hand in several other categories. During league play, Virginia Tech's offense has better numbers than Georgia Tech's defense in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, two-point FG percentage, and three-point FG percentage.
Also, for what it's worth, the Hokies have the better resume. Virginia Tech has one quality win this season (officially a 'B' win, per KenPom), a road victory at California. In contrast, Georgia Tech does not have any quality wins and has only beaten a single team that ranks in the top 200 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart, a home win at Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets have lost to all other opponents within the top 200 of overall efficiency. They also have the worst loss, dropping their second home game of the season to North Florida, 105-93.
Virginia Tech is having a lousy year, but it has won three of its last five, playing better in recent games. Georgia Tech will undoubtedly do its best to defend its home court, but I don't believe it has enough offensive firepower to put away the road team. I'm taking the points with the Hokies.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia Tech +5.5
Boise State 
at Colorado State 
The Rams were having offensive issues early in the season, but they've vastly improved over the past month. For the whole season, Colorado State ranks 111th in offensive efficiency, but against conference competition, it has the third-best offensive efficiency rating among Mountain West teams. The turnaround can simply be attributed to outstanding shooting and shot selection. During league play, the Rams have made 61 percent of shots inside the arc and 35 percent beyond it, yielding the best effective field goal percentage in the conference.
At the same time, the Broncos' defense has been decent, but not great. In recent years, their defense gave them a shot in most games, but it's no longer so stout. Boise State ranks 87th in defensive efficiency and ranks fifth in the MWC. The Broncos are great at cleaning up the glass, but they rank below league average in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and free-throw attempts allowed.
When playing in the other direction, Boise State is at its best. The Broncos boast the highest offensive efficiency rating in the league during the conference season, and they also rank in the top two in effective field goal percentage and rebounding. Fortunately for the home team, its defense has played at a similar level. In the same period, Colorado State ranks third among MWC teams in defensive efficiency and is limiting conference foes to 45 percent on two-point attempts and 31 percent on three-point attempts, yielding the second-best effective field goal percentage allowed. The Rams are also fifth in defensive rebounding, which should help it fend off the Broncos on the offensive glass. Overall, Colorado State hasn't given up many easy shots any way you look at it.
Considering Colorado State's improvements over the past month, I'm betting the home team will successfully defend its home court on Wednesday. I'm going with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State -1
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Northwestern -5.5
- Virginia Tech +5.5
- Colorado State -1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
