This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate features the cream of the crop in the SEC, among other high-profile matchups. Going for my seventh straight article with profitable picks, I present my predictions for three select games on Wednesday evening.
Alabama 
at Mississippi State 
This pick is all about the Crimson Tide's offensive attack.
Coming off a year where Alabama posted the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, it hasn't missed a beat and has continued the same elite level of play with the fifth-highest offensive rating among all D-1 teams. Its success has stemmed chiefly from its relentless and lucrative production in the paint, making almost 61 percent of two-point attempts, the second-highest mark in the nation. For the season, the Crimson Tide also has a top-20 ranking in offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw attempt rate, giving them many different methods for scoring points on any given possession.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, has taken a step back defensively from where it was the last two seasons. The Bulldogs were incredibly stout in the first two years under head coach Chris Jans, but now they rank 37th in defensive efficiency entering Wednesday. This isn't a bad standing, obviously, though it probably won't be enough for the road team's explosive offense. The real concern is Mississippi State's interior defense. The Bulldogs rank 163rd in defensive rebounding and 223rd in free-throw attempts allowed, two categories that Alabama usually dominates offensively. Additionally, Mississippi State is allowing conference opponents to make over 49 percent of two-point shots, 10th in the SEC.
When the Bulldogs have the ball on Wednesday, they'll face a defense that hasn't been the sharpest in the league but has performed at a comparable level. Specifically, Mississippi State has the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating in the SEC since the conference season started, while Alabama has the eighth-best defensive rating in the same period. The Crimson Tide's defense also outranks the Bulldogs' offense in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempts.
Overall, Alabama is simply the better team, and we have a rare opportunity to take them close to a pick'em. Sure, the Tide is traveling on the road, but that hasn't mattered up to this point. Alabama has already collected road wins over North Carolina (by 15 points), South Carolina (by 20 points), Texas A&M (by six points) and Kentucky (by five points). True road wins aside, Alabama also has wins over Illinois and Houston, supplementing one of the most impressive resumes you'll find. Nothing is ever guaranteed in college basketball, but I like our odds of watching Alabama continue to roll along. I'm picking the Tide in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -1
Texas 
at Mississippi
The Longhorns pulled off an improbable comeback in their last game, overcoming a 22-point second-half deficit to stun Texas A&M. With seven minutes remaining, KenPom gave Texas a 2.5 percent chance to come back and win, and it only had a 10 percent chance with a minute to go. A win is a win, but at the same time, if Texas doesn't pull off a miracle, then we're looking at a team with five losses in its last seven games, with two of them coming by 20-plus points.
The Rebels, on the other hand, are on a three-game skid. The consecutive losses don't look good, but it's worth noting they played competitively in each game. Ole Miss lost by three in overtime at Mississippi State, then it lost by a point to Texas A&M after blowing a late lead. Before this skid, Mississippi had defeated Georgia, Arkansas (road), LSU, and Alabama (road), giving them a string of high-quality performances. This is still a formidable team despite the recent stumble.
The key to Mississippi's success is its elite defensive play. It was terrible on defense in its first year under head coach Chris Beard, but the team has taken a massive leap forward in his second year. While leading Texas Tech and Texas, Beard guided his teams to a top-20 defensive efficiency rating in five consecutive seasons. These defensive stats are no accident. The Rebels have the 10th-best defensive rating among all D-1 teams, and they have the best rating among all SEC teams since the conference season started. Mississippi also leads the league in defensive turnovers and is second in steals, making this an aggressive and stingy group. The Longhorns, meanwhile, haven't been great at scoring, ranking 11th in efficiency among SEC teams. It has a worse standing in other categories, such as effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding.
When playing in the other direction, Texas has been relatively lousy in the past month. Against conference competition, the Longhorns have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating among all 16 SEC teams, and they rank in the bottom six teams in effective field goal percentage allowed and defensive rebounding. They don't really cause turnovers, either, 11th in the conference, which might not matter much in this matchup because Mississippi is exceptional at protecting the ball, boasting the best offensive turnover percentage in the league. The Rebels rank 12th in the SEC in offensive efficiency during league play, so they can certainly improve at this end, though even still, they appear to have a favorable matchup.
Given Mississippi's elite defense and home-court advantage, I like the Rebels' odds of covering the number. I'm taking the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi -6
Saint Mary's at Santa Clara 
The Gaels remain perfect in the year 2025, winning their last eight games. It's hard to find many faults with Saint Mary's, with perhaps the biggest one being that this winning streak coincides with playing the easiest stretch of its schedule. For context, only one of Saint Mary's wins during this streak counts as a quality win, its most recent at Washington State, per KenPom. Now, looking ahead, any one of its next five games would qualify as a quality win, starting with Wednesday.
Unlike the visitors, the Broncos have already suffered three conference losses, though it also has a pair of noteworthy victories. Namely, Santa Clara defeated Oregon State and more recently won at Gonzaga, 103-99, a triumph that shouldn't be overlooked.
Santa Clara wasn't playing great defense early in the year, ranking 104th in efficiency for the whole season, though it stepped up during conference play. Santa Clara has the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating among WCC teams, however the key in this matchup might be its strength on the glass. The Broncos have the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the conference, a critical skill because Saint Mary's has the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. The Gaels are great at scoring in general, recording the second-best offensive rating in the conference, so it's imperative for opposing teams to prevent second-chance opportunities.
At the other end of the court, Saint Mary's defense is a tough one to crack. During league play, it ranks first in the conference in efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and defensive rebounding. It's hard for any team to claim any sort of edge against this kind of defense, though Santa Clara's offense has been proficient in its own right. The Broncos are fourth in offensive efficiency among WCC teams and rank fifth or better in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, three-point FG percentage, and two-point FG percentage.
On paper, beating Saint Mary's defense is a tall task. That said, a closer look at the Gaels' schedule reveals that they've only played against two teams with a top-50 offensive efficiency rating, and it lost to both Boise State and Utah State. Santa Clara would qualify as a third, entering Wednesday at No. 46 in the same category. Considering this and the fact that the Broncos appear well-equipped to defend against the Gaels, I like our odds with the home team. I'm riding the Broncos in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +4.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Alabama -1
- Mississippi -6
- Santa Clara +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
