This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Battle 4 Atlantis tips off on Wednesday, in addition to the NIT Season Tip-Off, and I'm here to preview part of the action. Here are my best bets for the day.
Michigan vs. 
Memphis
From Nassau, Bahamas.
These two teams enter Tuesday evenly matched when it comes to overall efficiency, but a closer look reveals one team has an area of major concern.
Michigan has had one of the most dynamic offensive attacks thus far this season, ranking 14th in the nation in adjusted efficiency, but its defense hasn't come close to the same level of play, ranking 83rd. Not only is the defense weaker overall, but it's severely lacking in several key areas. The Wolverines rank 295th in defensive rebounding percentage, 293rd in three-point field goal percentage allowed, 342nd in steal percentage and 239th in block percentage. The only thing Michigan does well is guard the paint, holding opponents to 44.2 percent on two-point baskets, but Memphis is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, so this singular defensive strength doesn't mean much when playing against the Tigers.
Memphis, on the other hand, ranks 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency but has actually played better on defense, ranking 34th. Additionally, the Tigers also rank highly in many specific categories on both ends of the court. Memphis ranks 21st in three-point shooting at 40 percent, 90th in two-point field goal percentage, 12th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, 45th in defensive block percentage and 49th in defensive steal percentage.
Ultimately, I'm betting that the biggest liability in this game, Michigan's defense, will make all the difference in the outcome. The Wolverines already got shredded at home by Long Beach State, 94-86, and the Beach is close to the D1 average when it comes to offensive efficiency, so there's not much reason to think Michigan's defense will hold up any better against a much better offensive team in Memphis. I can buy that Michigan will "bounce back" to some extent, but that doesn't mean the Wolverines will automatically win a game against an equal yet more balanced team. I'm going with Memphis in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Memphis -1
Arkansas vs. 
Stanford
Arkansas is coming off a tough home loss to UNC Greensboro, but don't let this result fool you, the Razorbacks are still a great team. A deep dive into the box score from this recent loss suggests the Razorbacks simply had "one of those nights" where nothing fell through the rim. Arkansas has several players on their team that are capable of hitting long-range shots at a productive clip, but last Friday, the Razorbacks converted just 4-of-23 from behind the arc. This percentage is not at all indicative of Arkansas' shooting ability, as we can see when looking at the track record of various players. Therefore, assuming the Razorbacks can live up to the 'back of their baseball cards,' as it were, we can reasonably expect Arkansas will shoot much better in the future. This is especially true when considering Wednesday's opponent.
Stanford has struggled on defense, posting one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the Pac-12 -- third-worst to be exact. The Cardinal has played all four of its games at home this season, and it's allowed every opponent to score at least 70 points, with a season-high allowed to Santa Clara in an 89-77 loss. These kinds of numbers would be more understandable against fair competition, except that hasn't been the case. Stanford has played one of the easiest schedules in the country, ranking No. 317 in difficulty, per KenPom. One might wonder about room for improvement, but there's not much to wonder about when looking at recent history. Stanford has finished outside of the top-100 in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of the past three seasons, so we don't have any credible evidence to think the defense will magically improve before tip-off on Wednesday.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has boasted an elite defensive team under head coach Eric Musselman, finishing in the top-20 of the country in adjusted efficiency in each of the past three seasons. This year's squad is currently ranked 43rd, so recent history indicates there's a chance this standing will improve as Musselman coaches them up throughout the season.
Overall, these two teams are not close to being on the same level. Stanford has looked great on offense so far, but it also hasn't been challenged. Arkansas will easily be the best and strongest defensive team the Cardinal has played thus far, so I'm betting that the Razorbacks will bring the Cardinal back down to reality. I'm confidently laying the points with the superior team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas -6.5
Florida vs. 
Pittsburgh
From Brooklyn, NY.
Much like other matchups on Wednesday's slate, Florida and Pittsburgh enter Wednesday with similar overall efficiency numbers, with both playing slightly better on offense compared to defense. That said, there is one major matchup advantage in this game, and it belongs to Pittsburgh.
The Panthers are arguably the best rebounding team in the nation up to this point, posting the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage and the 11th-highest offensive rebounding percentage. These two stats are critical against Florida, because the Gators are crashing the offensive glass as much as any team in the nation. Florida ranks first among all D1 teams in offensive rebounding percentage, but it's paying for it at the other end, ranking 232nd in defensive rebounding. This is fine against weaker or smaller teams, but it doesn't bode well Wednesday. The Panthers, as one of the best offensive-rebounding teams, should see a ton of put-back opportunities. Then, on the other end of the court, Florida's best asset -- its offensive rebounding -- is completely neutralized when going against one of the best defensive-rebounding teams in the country.
If that's not enough of an advantage for Pittsburgh, it also has an edge in two other areas. First, the Panthers are much better from long-range, making nearly 38 percent of shots from behind the arc, compared to just 33 percent for Florida. Also, the Gators have played sloppily on offense, ranking 280th in offensive turnover percentage, while the Panthers are a careful bunch, ranking 14th in offensive turnover percentage.
Florida has a talented team, and I can see why it's favored; however, many of its normal advantages are rendered moot against Pittsburgh. This is the Panthers' first big test of the season, although they've scored over 100 points twice against two of their opponents (all D1 competition), so they haven't given us any reasons to doubt their current numbers. I'm taking the points with the Panthers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh +3.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Memphis -1
- Arkansas -6.5
- Pittsburgh +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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