This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Barstool Sports Invitational at Wintrust Arena takes center stage on Wednesday's slate, as most of the college hoops world has the night off. There's still plenty of opportunity to profit, though, so let's take a look at our best bets for the evening.
Florida Atlantic vs. Loyola Chicago
Coming off the heels of its spectacular run to the Final Four, Florida Atlantic opens the season with high aspirations.
The Owls won 35 of 39 games last year, and nearly everyone is returning, save for Michael Forrest (10.2 PPG). The entire coaching staff is also back for an encore, giving them good reason to believe they can make another run come March. Thus, it's hardly surprising that FAU was named the American Athletic Conference's preseason favorite, with junior guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin sharing the honors of conference Preseason Player of the Year.
Last season, the Owls scored 79.3 points per game (26th) and shot 47.2 percent (41st), including 37.8 percent from three-point range (22nd). One would expect similar numbers this year based on the roster continuity, although FAU moved from Conference USA to the AAC in the offseason, so the difference in conference competition could affect the raw numbers later in the year.
Looking at the other team in this matchup, Loyola-Chicago finished last season with a brutal 10-21 record, good for last place in the Atlantic 10 in the Ramblers' first season in the league. KenPom is projecting a much better season this time around, ranking the Ramblers at No. 74 on the current overall efficiency standings entering Wednesday. That said, other college hoops insiders aren't nearly as optimistic, as Loyola-Chicago was picked to finish eighth in the Atlantic-10 Conference preseason poll. The key for Loyola-Chicago will be its young group of players developing with another year of experience while meshing them with several new players who joined the roster this offseason.
When looking at Wednesday's matchup, one area that sticks out for FAU is its penchant for allowing opponents to take a high volume of three-pointers. Last season, Florida Atlantic allowed the 95th-highest three-point attempt rate among all D1 teams. This isn't always a problem, except Loyola-Chicago is returning its two best shooters (Philip Alston and Braden Norris), and the pair is joined by new teammates who can also shoot well.
The spread on this game has already moved toward Florida Atlantic throughout Tuesday evening -- understandable considering the show they put on for everyone back in March. Ultimately, the number has ballooned too big for my liking. Instead, I'm betting that the Owls will continue their scoring prowess and the Ramblers will stay in the game thanks to long-range shooting. I think FAU will pull away late, but Loyola-Chicago is playing close to home in the first game of the season, so they certainly have a shot a pulling the upset. Given the current number, I'll pass on the spread. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 142
Arizona State vs. 
Mississippi State
The Sun Devils nearly missed the NCAA tournament last year, but they played well enough down the stretch to earn a spot in the First Four, where they soundly defeated Nevada. Arizona State then lost to TCU in the Round of 64, ending the season with a 23-13 record.
Now, the Sun Devils are effectively in a rebuild, or reload possibly, if things go well. The problem though, is that most of last year's team is gone. Specifically, they have three key players returning -- Frankie Collins, Jamiya Neal, and Alonzo Gaffney -- and the latter is ruled out for Wednesday due to injury. In total, the team lost its top four scorers from last season and brought in 10 new players, eight being transfers. With extreme roster turnover, it's not surprising that Arizona State didn't have any players named on the preseason All-Pac-12 teams. Add all this up, and we can also see why Arizona State was voted to finish sixth in the Pac-12 in the preseason poll.
The Sun Devils' opponent, in sharp contrast, has significant roster continuity entering the new season. In fact, Mississippi State is returning 80.9 percent of its points, 72.4 percent of its rebounds, 83.8 percent of its assists, 83.6 percent of its steals, and 75.2 percent of its blocks from last season.
Overall, it was a highly successful year for the Bulldogs, the first season of head coach Chris Jans, who helped guide a defense that held teams to 61 points per game, the lowest for this program since 2002-2003. And with all their core players returning, the Bulldogs undoubtedly believe they can build off last year.
This is all great news for the Bulldogs' season-long prospects, but I would be remiss if I didn't note two significant injuries that will impact Wednesday's matchup. Both Shakeel Moore and Tolu Smith are expected to miss the game, which we can't overlook, as Smith led the team in points and rebounds while Moore was second on the team in scoring in 2022-23.
Despite their absences, Mississippi State's defense should be ready to play. The Bulldogs ranked ninth in KenPom's defensive efficiency last season, and he has them sitting at 10th entering Wednesday, so there shouldn't be any surprises in that area.
All in all, this game comes down to a re-shuffled Arizona State roster going against an elite defensive opponent with a significant edge in team chemistry. This game is going to get ugly, but I have to take the better team with more continuity and certainty. Mississippi State might struggle to score early in the game as it adjusts without Smith and Moore, but ultimately I'm betting that its defense will do enough to get the victory. I'm on the Bulldogs and the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi St. -4 and Under 132.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- FAU / Loyola Chicago - Over 142
- Mississippi St. -3.5
- Arizona St. / Mississippi St. - Under 132.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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