This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Eight games get us started Saturday, and we're getting an increased prize pool with $20,000 on the line in DraftKings primary tournament, with $5,000 to the overall winner and two additional four-figure payouts for second and third place. Good luck!
We tip at a slightly later 1:00 p.m. EDT and stretch to roughly 5:00. There are only two games expected to reach 150 points, so scoring is going to be slightly harder to come by. Purdue is present, so we have the typical Zach Edey conundrum. He's valued $1,300 higher than anyone else on the slate, and there's only one other player higher than $9,000. Edey's averaged 47.6 DKP against Wisconsin this season, so use him if you can. Perhaps his best quality against the Badgers has been limiting Steven Crowl and getting him into foul trouble. Crowl is enjoying a terrific tournament and comes in at a favorable salary, but the matchup for him looks to be one we should avoid.
Top Targets
Yaxel Lendeborg, F, UAB ($9,400)
It's rare when I try to squeeze these higher-valued options into lineups, though Lendeborg is essentially a Zach Edey light as he offers similar upside at enough of a salary reduction where it makes him a solid play if we can fit him in. He's posted double-doubles in three straight and six of his last seven, with 34.0 DKP being his floor in these outings. Lendeborg listed a 27.9 percent usage rate in his lone meeting with USF during the regular season and he produced 23 points and 15 rebounds with the Blazers winning and where the two sides combined for 146. They're slight underdogs here with the projected total of 145.5, so expecting almost identical production is fair.
Braden Smith, G, Purdue ($7,800)
Smith's salary has dropped below $8,000, which has me back in. He's such a diverse statistical performer we can get a safe floor a variety of ways, and he's coming off his lowest scoring effort since Jan.16, which should make him less rostered than the stars in the Florida-Texas A&M matchup that will be popularly targeted. Yesterday's game was Smith's first with less than 30.0 DKP over his last 14 outings. He's averaged 13.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 1.6 steals during that stretch while playing 35.9 minutes and averaging 14.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.5 steals in two regular-season meetings with Wisconsin.
Middle Tier
Mika Adams-Woods, G, St. Bonaventure ($5,900)
Adams-Woods moved into the starting lineup 11 games ago and is logging lots of minutes we can't usually find sub-$6,000. And it's not just playing time that's attractive here as he's productive with that run by averaging 12.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.2 steals across 36.2 minutes. Adams-Woods has only posted one performance over that stretch under 23.0 DKP with a ceiling of 31.75 and went for 28.0 during the regular season against Duquesne where he scoring 21 points. He appears to be a rock solid producer at a below-average valuation.
Ty Rodgers, G/F, Illinois ($5,200)
Rogers isn't overly consistent - which we don't expect at this salary point - yet he offers enough upside at this number where we can consider him if fitting in Edey or Lendeborg. He's coming off a double-double Friday - his first with at least 10 points since Jan. 30 - and has only returned 4x this number five times across 14 matchups, so there's ample risk. We don't want to bank solely on Rogers' production against Nebraska in their only regular season meeting, where he accumulated eight points, 14 rebounds, three assists, three steals and two blocks. That matchup ended up an 87-84 final, and this one lists the slate's highest expected total. If that script plays out, Rogers can flirt with 30 minutes and exceed value.
Bargain Options
Shane Dezonie, G, Temple ($4,900)
If we're going for upside with Rogers above, we can balance that with a seemingly stable Dezonie for a slightly lesser salary. He's reached at least 11.25 DKP in nine straight, five times topping 20 by averaging 9.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists. The matchup isn't ideal with FAU being heavily favored, and Dezonie struggled against them during the regular season. But we can take solace in the fact he had a 31.3 percent usage rate there and the shots just didn't fall as he only went 1-for-7. We'll take that volume again here Saturday and hope a few additional successful opportunities.
Jamarques Lawrence, G, Nebraska ($4,600)
Quality bargains are few and far between Saturday afternoon, as we have a lot of teams that play deep rotations paired with many with very little depth and five entrenched starters. So the target with Lawrence is minutes and game script. He's moved into a reserve role over the last nine games, yet is still logging 21.8 minutes and providing 9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists as a substitute. If we get the free flowing game these teams displayed during the regular season, there will be chances for Lawrence to at least reach double-digit fantasy points and he's gone over 3x return in six of his last nine.
