DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Preview

Top Players:

Mike Daum ($11,200 - DraftKings Only): Daum is a fantasy darling and one of the best players in the country over the last few years, but nobody seems to know much about him. While I generally avoid high-priced mid-majors that sneak into the slate, Daum is one to include if you can find reasonable salary relief. He's increased his averages to 24.1 points and 11.2 rebounds in his senior year, and gets a matchup with Memphis that is very favorable for DFS. The Tigers are No. 33 in adjusted tempo, but just No. 123 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Memphis let Tariq Owens double-double in their last game, and gave up 19 points and eight rebounds to Charleston forward Jarrell Brantley in the game before that. Daum is a much better player than both.

Alpha Diallo ($10,300 DK, $8,300 FD): I think he's a little high-priced on DraftKings, especially when it likely comes at the cost of owning Mike Daum. He's also coming off an 0-for-6 shooting game, and will be playing his first true road game of the year against a top-70 defense (per KenPom). Unless you're playing a contrarian strategy (which hasn't really paid off with the small prize pools so far), Diallo is a fade for me.

Ky Bowman ($9,800 DK, $8,500 FD): Bowman contributes across the board and has an equally-high ceiling as Diallo, hence the higher price on FanDuel. He dropped 38 against Wyoming earlier this year, and had a double-double with 12 points and 11 rebounds against Minnesota. Basically, he had two of his best games in his two toughest matchups, so Providence doesn't scare me a ton, even though he doesn't get much of a pace or defensive efficiency boost. I'll be building my FanDuel lineups around him.

Lamar Stevens ($8,900 DK, $8,400 FD): I thought the return of Mike Watkins (personal) would hinder the value of Stevens, but it hasn't so far. It's also just been two games, and Watkins got into heavy foul trouble in the last one. At the same time, Stevens hasn't scored under 29.5 DraftKings points all year, and could face an Indiana frontcourt that is down Juwan Morgan, who is a game-time decision. Stevens is tougher to work in on FanDuel because Dedric Lawson is in the slate, but on DraftKings, I'm starting with Daum and Stevens, and not looking back. Just be ready to watch for the Indiana lineup (fortunately, they tip at 7:00 p.m. EST).

Dedric Lawson ($8,800 - FanDuel Only): Look for Lawson to be over 60 percent owned on FanDuel, whether it's a cash game or tournament. He's coming off three-straight games of 47 or more FanDuel points -- all double-doubles in which he's scored 24 or more. Wofford doesn't give Lawson any type of pace boost, and there is some blowout potential here, but that's not enough for me to back off. In the opener, the Terriers stayed close with North Carolina, which resulted in huge games for Luke Maye (24 points, 7 rebounds) and Garrison Brooks (20 points, 5 rebounds).

Games/Teams to Target:

Kansas (-16.5) vs. Wofford, o/u 151, 8:00 p.m. EST (FanDuel Only)

Dedric Lawson (discussed above) is my favorite play, but pivoting to a cheaper Udoka Azubuike ($7,600) is reasonable as well. He's getting a price break after being affected by foul trouble in each of his last three. Legarald Vick ($7,800) can get hot any time and is priced appropriately for it. Quentin Grimes ($4,800) is seeing his minutes trend in the wrong direction, but this is a chance for him to get back on track, and you get a huge price break. He also sports the fourth-best usage rate and shot percentage on the team behind the aforementioned trio. While Kansas has the highest implied point total on the slate, Wofford sports the fourth-worst, so I'm not getting much exposure there.

Memphis (-3.5) vs. South Dakota St., o/u 158, 9:00 p.m. EST (DraftKings Only)

It's the highest over/under among games on either slate and the two teams are the projected top-2 scorers on DraftKings, so find yourself multiple pieces if you're playing. Mike Daum ($11,200 DK) is discussed above, so it comes down to who to pair him with. Tevin King ($6,000) is their leading assist man, while Skyler Flatten ($6,600) plays the highest percentage of minutes. David Jenkins ($6,900) is not far behind Daum in offensive rating, usage and shot rate, so it's easy to see why he's the highest priced of the trio. I lean towards South Dakota players because of the pace boost Memphis provides, but Kyon Davenport ($7.400) is a good pivot at one of his lower prices of the year. Tyler Harris ($5,400) is their second-leading scorer, and a good way to get another piece of the game without breaking the bank. He just doesn't contribute as much in the peripherals as Jeremiah Martin, who is a bit pricey at $7,400.

Games/Teams to Avoid:

Northwestern vs. Michigan (-6), o/u 128, 9:00 p.m. EST

These two teams sit at dead last in terms of Tuesday's implied point totals, but don't seem to be getting much of a price break for it. Iggy Brazdeikis ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD) had three-straight games of 30 or more points before getting limited to 12 Saturday against Purdue. He and Charles Matthews ($6,700 DK, $6,800 FD) have the biggest potential for a impact performance, but the road matchup and big pace downgrade are enough to make me back off. The Michigan defense is ranked first overall in efficiency (and the team ranks No. 327 in tempo), so Northwestern is a fade entirely for me.

Indiana @ Penn St. (-2.5), o/u 136.5, 7:00 p.m. EST

The Big Ten strikes again. Much of this slate will revolve around what happens to Juwan Morgan (leg), who I'll discuss further in depth below. Romeo Langford ($8,300 DK, $8,100) arguably has even more star power than Lamar Stevens (discussed above), but even if he's counted on more in potential the absence of Morgan, I'm not sure I trust him to have a major game against the country's seventh-ranked defense. This game is limited to potential punt plays, only if Morgan doesn't play. I guess there's a case to be made for taking a shot on a bounce-back game for Mike Watkins ($5,000 FD, $5,600 DK), but the situation is volatile.

Injuries:

Jamari McNeace, Oklahoma: McNeace won't play Tuesday night due to an ankle injury, which leaves Brady Manek ($6,800 DK, $7,000 FD) and Kristen Doolittle ($4,500 DK, $4,800 FD) open to more opportunities on the glass. My guess now is that Lon Kruger just goes with a smaller starting lineup, which does little for me in terms of opening up potential punt plays. That said, the price break for Doolittle is enough for me to toss him in most lineups across all sites. On the other side, John Mooney ($6,800 DK, $7,100 FD) gets enough of a boost for me, especially on DraftKings. He's a foul trouble risk, but won't have McNeace's 2.1 BPG to contend with in the paint.

Juwan Morgan, Indiana: Morgan had to be helped off the court Saturday due to a leg injury, and coach Archie Miller isn't providing much in terms of an update. If he plays, I don't start due to the low over/under game and a matchup against the No. 7-rated team in KenPom's defensive efficiency. If he sits, punt plays potentially open up in the form of Evan Fitzner ($4,200 FD) and De'Ron Davis ($4,000 FD). Fitzner sees more minutes and has had a few good games this year, making him my preferred option of the two.