March Madness Final Four: Duke vs. Houston Game Preview and Predictions

March Madness Final Four: Duke vs. Houston Game Picks & Predictions

Matchup: The No. 1 seeded Houston Cougars are making their seventh trip to the Final Four and are looking for the first National Championship in school history. They take on a Blue Devil squad that is making its 18th appearance in the Final Four and is looking for its sixth championship. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson is making his second trip, with the first coming in 2021.  Jon Scheyer will be making his first trip as the head coach of his alma-mater after having won it all as a player on the 2010 squad. This will be a rematch of last year's Sweet 16 matchup, which Duke won by a score of 54-51. 

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.

Houston, Midwest Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: Houston starts three guards, with Milos Uzan at the point and L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp on the wings. They are the offensive catalysts, serving as the team's three leading scorers with each shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. Cryer has been the team's leading scorer throughout the season, averaging 15.4 points, and carries with him Final Four experience as a member of the Baylor Bears during their championship run in 2021. Sharp was the second-leading scorer, averaging 12.7 per game, but since the start of the Big 12 tournament has been the top man, recording 16.4 points per contest. Uzan meanwhile has arguably become their main cog, shooting 46.2 percent from downtown while averaging 12.8 points since the start of Big 12 play. He also leads the team with 4.4 assists per game and is among the nation's leaders with an assist/turnover ratio of 3.09. While the three guards will be at a size disadvantage against Duke, they're as tough as any defensively -- that was on full display during their dominant effort against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. Terrance Arceneaux and Mylik Wilson provide backcourt depth for the Cougars with each filling the requisite role of being solid shooters and athletic defenders. 

Frontcourt: The Houston frontcourt is also undersized, with both J'Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler standing at 6-8. Roberts is its best offensive threat underneath, averaging 10.7 points and leading the team with 6.3 rebounds per game. He's also the heart of the team with coach Kelvin Sampson calling Roberts his favorite player he's ever coached. Tugler is a defensive behemoth, earning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors while being named one of four finalists for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award. He carries with him a 7-4 wingspan, averages just under two blocks per game and is a true shutdown defender. Ja'Vier Francis has moved into a bench role after starting all 37 games last year and is another freak defender with a 7-5 wingspan of his own. 

X-Factor: Offense. It is well publicized that Houston has the top scoring defense in the country, but the Cougars are also a top-10 unit when it comes to offensive efficiency. They rank third in shooting the three ball at a nearly 40 percent clip and are among the best in the nation at protecting the basketball, ranking fourth with an average of 9.0 turnover per game. Their defense can shut any team down, but it's their ability to make shots that separates this Cougar team from past outfits. 

Who They Beat to Get Here:

SIU Edwardsville 78-40

Gonzaga 81-76

Purdue 62-60

Tennessee 69-50

Houston Will Win IF: It can win the turnover battle. The Blue Devils are predicated on limiting fast-break opportunities by their opponents and forcing turnovers to help create transition opportunities of their own. This was on full display when the Duke held Alabama to just eight fast-break points. However, Houston prefers the half-court game on offense, ranking 360th among all Division 1 teams in pace, and is among the nation's best at limiting turnovers. The defense also excels in half-court sets and leads the nation by allowing only 87.4 points per 100 offensive possessions. Of course, Duke is the most efficient offense in the nation and prefers to play at a relatively controlled pace as well, meaning that both teams will be very comfortable in the half court. Transition points will be at a premium, which gives the team that wins the turnover battle a distinct advantage. If Houston can protect the basketball and keep Duke's transition opportunities to a minimum, the Cougars will be in great shape.

Prediction: This is a rematch of last year's Sweet 16 when Houston looked to be in control until late in the first half when Jamal Shead went down with an ankle injury. Beyond Shead's injury, another key element was Houston shooting just 25 percent from deep in the three-point defeat. Duke is very different this time around, with five freshman in its regular rotation. Houston counters with a veteran roster that features six different players with over 100 games of power-conference experience, including J'Wan Roberts, who will be playing in his 172nd game for the Cougars. Duke has been rolling, but Houston has the experience and defensive prowess to frustrate the Blue Devils, who finished just 1-2 this season against competition that finished within the top-20 of the KenPom defensive efficiency ratings. The matchup to watch will be Joseph Tugler against Cooper Flagg. If Flagg can get his, Duke should roll, but Tugler is an NBA-level defender, the likes of which Flagg hasn't seen. Houston controls the game with its menacing defense, is protective of the rock and keeps the game in the 60s. The Cougars advance to Monday's championship game for the first time since Phi Slamma Jamma made the trip in 1984. 

-written by Brian Williams

Take advantage of the best March Madness betting promos to maximize your potential earnings in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Duke, East Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: Size and length is the name of Duke's game, as is its ability to mix and match personnel. No one on Duke's roster is below 6-foot-5, and while the Blue Devils don't have a true point guard, Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James will all play on the ball often. All three shoot the 3-pointer at at least a 40.1 percent clip. The mix of inside-outside ability all three have, paired with their size, makes for incredibly difficult matchups on both ends of the court for opposing guards, translating into opponents making just 30.8 percent of their 3-point shots.

Frontcourt: Loaded with NBA talent, Duke is headlined by likely No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, who's listed at 6-foot-9, and averaged 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks, all of which lead the team. He'll play on the ball too as a point-forward. The interior is anchored by Khaman Maluach at 7-foot-2, 250 pounds, giving Duke an elite rim protector and lob target offensively. Duke has shortened its rotation a bit over the last week, but there's ample depth here too thanks to the emergence of Patrick Ngongba, while Mason Gillis offers experience on the wing. And Maliq Brown has returned from injury, giving them a defensive ace and additional bodies to rotate.

X-Factor: Tyrese Proctor. We know what we'll get from Flagg, and to a lesser extend Knueppel and Maluach, but Proctor had a ridiculous opening weekend of the tournament, going 15-for-19 from the floor and 13-of-16 from 3-point range. He wasn't quite as good last week, but is still shooting 67.6 percent from the floor over the last four games, and only has four turnovers. If Duke continues to get consistency from Proctor, the Blue Devils are virtually unguardable, even for a team as stout defensively as Houston. You simply can't guard everyone.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Mount St. Mary's 93-49

Baylor 89-66

Arizona 100-93

Alabama 85-65

Duke Will Win IF: It boxes out and limit Houston's offensive rebounds. The Cougars have 62 offensive rebounds through their first four tournament games, and Duke ranks just a moderate 44th in offensive rebounds allowed at 26.7 percent. It's one of its lowest statistical metrics. Houston shoots the 3-pointer well at 39.7 percent (third), but that still leaves 60 percent of the chances to be boarded. Duke must commit to keeping a smaller but active Houston group off the glass and in as many one-shot possessions as possible.

Prediction: Duke has scored at least 85 points in each of its last four wins and been held under 70 points only three times all season. We know Houston will slow this down, play physically and attempt to limit Duke's possessions. But despite Duke's offensive prowess, it doesn't force tempo either, ranking 269th. Duke is comfortable playing longer possessions and won't be rattled by the Cougars' style. One big difference to the Blue Devils' roster this season is experience. It's not just one-and-done freshmen, but a far better mix. Houston is still older, but the moment won't be too big for this Duke team. Duke 73-66.

--Written by Chris Bennett

Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best college basketball betting sites during March Madness 2025. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.