March Madness Final Four: Auburn vs. Florida Game Picks & Predictions

Matchup: In a battle between top seeds from their regions, the SEC regular season champion Auburn Tigers will face off against SEC tournament champions Florida. Both teams are led by two of the best players in the country in Johni Broome and Walter Clayton, who both excelled to lead their squads to the Elite Eight. Third-year head coach Todd Golden has had to navigate deficits late in multiple games to advance, while Auburn has had a slightly easier path and mostly coasted to San Antonio. 

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Florida, West Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: The Gators' starting lineup includes three guards and is led by Walter Clayton, whose 30-point performance Saturday, including multiple clutch threes down the stretch, propelled Florida to overcome a nine-point deficit with a few minutes left against Texas Tech to reach the Final Four. The senior point guard has had one heck of an NCAA Tournament thus far, averaging 22.3 points and shooting 45 percent from deep. Although Alijah Martin and Will Richard were held in check against the Red Raiders, they've been key pieces to this team, and both are averaging over two makes per game from three at a 35 percent clip.

Frontcourt: There is no shortage of size in Florida's frontcourt, with 6-11 Alex Condon starting at the four and the 6-10, 260-pound Rueben Chinyelu matching up against opposing centers. Condon is the more active one of the duo on the offensive end as one of the team's four double-digit scorers on the season. He also leads the team in boards, although Chinyelu has been better on a per-minute basis. It doesn't end there, however, as the Gators also feature 7-1 Micah Handlogten off the bench, while Thomas Haugh's 20 point, 11 rebound double-double Saturday kept them in the game.

X-Factor: Will Richard. With the plethora of options Florida has at its disposal, it's easy for Richard to get overshadowed on this squad, especially by Clayton in the backcourt. Nevertheless, he's the Gators' best backcourt defender and leads the team with 1.6 steals per game. Richard also put up 30 points just over a month ago at Georgia, so he's capable of stepping up offensively if Auburn focuses on shutting down Clayton and forces him to get others more involved than usual.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Norfolk St. 95-69

UConn 77-75

Maryland 87-71

Texas Tech 84-79

Florida Will Win IF: The scoring is balanced. Florida is best when multiple players are involved, and it doesn't become the Clayton show. While he carried them late to beat Texas Tech, Haugh was the only other player with more than 10 points, and that shouldn't happen on a team with so many offensive options. In the win over Maryland, six players had between 10-15 points, but in their most recent loss to Georgia, only two players reached double figures despite the team scoring 83 points.

Prediction: The oddsmakers have this as the closer of the two Final Four matchups (and much higher scoring), with Florida as a slight 2.5-point favorite, which makes sense considering the SEC Tournament champions are on a 10-game winning streak. The lone meeting between these two teams happened in early-February, when Florida went on the road and controlled throughout, leading by as much as 21 before ultimately winning by nine without Alijah Martin. That snapped a 14-game winning streak for top-ranked Auburn at the time. With that said, Auburn has been one of the best teams at defending the three this year, allowing opponents to shoot under 30 percent from deep on the season. Michigan and Michigan State both struggled mightily in that area, and Auburn will have to keep that up to win. I think Florida has too many shooters to contain, however, and it feels like we're destined for a Florida-Duke final. Florida 83, Auburn 76.

-Written by Ryan Pohle

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Auburn Tigers, South Region No. 1 Seed

Backcourt: The Auburn backcourt may not get enough credit for its level of talent and depth.  The three-headed monster of Denver Jones, Miles Kelly and Chad Baker-Mazara forms a potent starting trio.  Jones provides a veteran presence at the point guard slot and is the squad's best three-point shooter at 41.8 percent.  However, the play of freshman sensation Tahaad Pettiford has been a huge boon for the squad off the bench.  Pettiford has hit the 20-point mark twice in four tournament games, while also finishing the victories as one of the closing five on the floor.  Baker-Mazara is a kind of Swiss Army knife at 6-7, giving the backcourt a little bit of everything as necessary.  Kelly has been a bit inconsistent but can also score in bunches.  All four guards are also superior foul shooters, which aids in close games.

Frontcourt: The best player on the floor for the Tigers this season has been Johni Broome.  He has recorded a double-double in every tournament contest thus far this season, and if not for the presence of Duke's Cooper Flagg, would be a shoe-in for National Player of the Year.  Dylan Cardwell starts at center alongside Broome, and has been an excellent deterrent on the defensive end, while also assisting Broome on the glass.  Senior Chaney Johnson provides a lift off the bench, nearly averaging double-digits in points despite being a reserve.

X-Factor: Johni Broome's health.  Broome fell awkwardly in the second half of Auburn's Elite 8 win over Michigan State, appearing to injure his right arm/elbow.  At first, Broome left the court and could be seen mouthing the words, "I'm done" to his coaches and teammates.  Miraculously, Broome returned to the court mere minutes later, spurring his team to victory a la Willis Reed.  Broome still appeared to be favoring his right arm for the remainder of the game, which was described as a hyperextension.  Though he is a southpaw, Broome is also nursing a left leg injury as well.  His status remains up in the air for Saturday's clash with the Gators.  While it would be a shock if Broome did not end up suiting up, it is not entirely clear just how healthy he is, and as such, what his level of production or contribution will be for the Tigers.  Broome's status is vital towards whether the Tigers can ultimately defeat the Gators.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Alabama State, 83-63

Creighton, 82-70

Michigan, 78-65

Michigan State, 70-64

Auburn Will Win IF: Either Broome is completely healthy, or someone else has a game for the ages.  The Tigers fell to Florida in early-February at full strength, so the fact that Broome is not 100 percent could spell doom for the Tigers.  That is, unless someone else steps up.  The Tigers certainly have enough firepower to keep pace with the Gators, but it will likely either take a mammoth game from Broome or someone else to ultimately get over the hump.

Prediction: Auburn perhaps not being at full strength cannot be ignored.  Broome is a huge question mark, but Chad Baker-Mazara and reserve Chris Moore have also battled injuries at some point during the tournament.  Auburn would have had the frontcourt advantage with a healthy Broome, but that is now in jeopardy.  The Gators will throw a bunch of big bodies at Broome and make him earn his keep.  Meanwhile, Florida can match up well with guards of their own in the form of Walter Clayton, Will Richard and Alijah Martin.  The Gators have lost just once in the last 17 clashes.  Auburn was the best team in the country during the regular season, but Florida is peaking at the right time and has already proven it can beat the Tigers.  Look for the Gators to pull this one out.

--Written by Jesse Siegel

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