This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.

Betting futures for something like March Madness is always tricky because most of the time you're not getting much value, at least for the favorites. Sportsbooks know people like betting favorites without putting much thought into it. If someone thinks UConn is the best team, they'll bet a simple +400 for the Huskies to win it all.

That number still seems pretty small when you consider a team has to win six straight games against unknown competition to win the title. If you think they can only win four games in a row, the Huskies are +105 to reach the Final Four.

While it's everyone's favorite thing to do, I'd rather find more value in specific bets than spewing teams to win the National Championship. But if you really want to know, UConn and Purdue (+600) are my top choices.

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West Region

The first thing I do when looking at futures is deciding on the weakest overall region because that's usually where weird things happen. This season, it seems kind of easy, at least for me. The West region stands out in terms of least consistent teams even if the metrics don't suggest it.

I like the Tar Heels, but they're the fourth No. 1 seed for a reason and there have been times this season when RJ Davis doesn't get the help he needs. Arizona's metrics look good, but I can't get there. Caleb Love has struggled to close the season and if he's not playing at a high level, the Wildcats aren't an elite team. Meanwhile, Baylor and Alabama both struggle defensively. Do I like anyone in this region? Not really, but I have to pick someone.

I don't think St. Mary's is a great team, but it plays defense and grinds out games. That's a method that usually works against teams that struggle defensively because the Gaels should technically be able to score on them. They're +1100 to win the region and +180 to reach the Sweet 16. While I don't think Grand Canyon matches up well in that first game, I don't hate the +600 for the Antelopes to win their first two games, either. Needless to say, I'm fading Alabama due to a wildly inconsistent defense. Notably, for St. Mary's, San Diego State grinded the game against Alabama in last season's tournament and that's exactly what the Gaels would do in the Round of 32.

An underseeded New Mexico is my favorite from the bottom of the region. The Lobos had some iffy losses to close the season, but they shined in the MWC tournament. I think +240 to reach the second weekend are okay odds, while +2500 to win the region gets me a little more amped up. Since I don't believe in Arizona or Baylor, my favorite plays are on the bottom of the region with a surprising New Mexico at the top of the list.

South Region

I think the South region is similarly wide open, but I think that benefits Duke and Kentucky more than an extreme long shot. If I had to pick, Colorado at +8000 to win the region is the most intriguing option. If Boise State beats them Wednesday, remove that suggestion from memory.

The metrics love Duke (+650), but I'm not sold on its toughness or ability to scratch out multiple wins in a row against good competition. Kentucky's (+700) defense is a problem, but it could technically ride its offense to the FInal Four, not too different than Miami last season. If you think the Wildcats can turn up their defense for the tournament, that +700 to win the region is pretty good. The talent and scoring is there, it's just about playing defense for extended periods.

Wisconsin had an awesome run earlier in the season but slipped and looked like a bubble team for a couple weeks. If AJ Storr is at his best with Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl doing their usual little bit of everything, the Badgers aren't the worst idea at +1200. 

I don't think any of the elite teams stand out from an overall perspective in the South and that includes Houston, which doesn't have the same level of offense as Kentucky, Duke or even Wisconsin.

Big East Futures

I'm sure the odds don't make sense if you go game by game or team by team, but I think over 7.5 wins for the Big East is a good bet. I realize UConn is +100 to win four games, Marquette -130 to win two and Creighton -200 to win two, but instead of making things complicated, you can take this bet at +120.

This could go a number of ways in your favor. Maybe UConn wins it all and you only need two more wins. Or it wouldn't be crazy if Creighton and Marquette both made the Elite 8, so you'd only need two UConn wins. I think the versatility of this bet is in your favor and worth a look at +120.

San Diego State vs. New Mexico

If you want a futures bet that's a little more extreme, the odds for San Diego State (-170) versus New Mexico (+145) to advance further caught my eye. I'm not sold on the Aztecs being as good as last season's version and I almost think their road to the Sweet 16 is more difficult of the two. The Lobos are a top-20 level team at their peak and maybe even top 10. The helpful thing with this bet is you get your money back if they lose in the same round. 

Sweet 16 Parlay

At certain sportsbooks you're allowed to parlay futures bets like Sweet 16 appearance. Since I've given a few long shots already, this is what I call a safe parlay, which is probably an oxymoron.

If you parlay UConn (-650), Purdue (-430) and Tennessee (-245) to reach the Sweet 16, it's exactly +100 at FanDuel. Of the top seeds, I think Purdue and Tennessee have the easiest routes, while UConn is too good for anyone. 

2024 NCAA Tournament Futures

• St. Mary's to reach the Sweet 16 +180
• New Mexico to reach the Final Four +2500
• Kentucky to reach the Final Four +700
• Wisconsin to reach the Elite Eight +630
• Purdue to reach the Elite Eight -128
• Big East over 7.5 wins +120
• New Mexico to advance further than San Diego State +145
• Parlay: UConn, Purdue and Tennessee to reach the Sweet 16 +100

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