NCAA Championship Preview: Connecticut vs. San Diego State

The San Diego State Aztecs advanced to the National Championship Game in dramatic fashion.  The Aztecs erased a 14-point deficit in the second half.  Then, the Butler did it.  Lamont Butler dribbled into the corner and hit a buzzer-beating jumper to send San Diego State to the title game.  Butler's heart-stopping shot ended Florida Atlantic's magical run.  The No. 9 seed is now 0-9 all-time in the Final Four.  The Aztecs will play for their first National Championship.

Meanwhile, UConn dispatched of Miami, much as the Huskies have downed their other opponents during this tournament.  Connecticut once again won by double digits for the fifth-straight game.  The Huskies "only" beat the Hurricanes by 13, which was their "smallest" win of March Madness.  However, the result of this contest was never really in question, and Connecticut will be the prohibitive favorite as the Huskies strive for five national championships as a program.

No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs

Strength: Defense.  The Aztecs actually had trouble defending Florida Atlantic for three-quarters of Saturday's game, but put the clamps on the Owls down the stretch.  The 71 points allowed in the National Semifinal was actually the largest total given up by the Aztecs during the NCAA Tournament.  Otherwise, SDSU had allowed 64 points or fewer in each of the previous four outings.  They've been particularly potent in defending the three-point line.  Prior to Saturday's thriller over FAU, the opposition had been hitting an abysmal 17-percent from beyond the arc against the Aztecs in the tourney.

Weakness: Scoring.  The Aztecs can go into lulls on the offensive end at times.  While their defense usually keeps them in the game, San Diego State was about 200th in the nation during the year in both points and assists.  SDSU has a tendency to go one-on-one at times.  While the Aztecs guards are talented, the offense can get stagnant.  San Diego State will need to avoid these long droughts against a UConn squad that has scored at least 70 points in every tournament game thus far.

Intangibles: San Diego State has proven to be an incredibly resilient squad.  The Aztecs never seem to panic.  Whether that is the even-keeled demeanor of coach Brian Dutcher, or the veteran leadership from Matt Bradley or Darrion Trammell, the Aztecs seem to find a way to right the ship, even when the odds look bleak.  They will be underdogs in Monday's clash, but the moment should not be too big for SDSU given their experience and tournament resume.

San Diego State Will Win If: the Aztecs shoot 50-percent or better from three-point range.  If SDSU struggles on the offensive end early in this contest, the Aztecs could be doomed to the same fate as Connecticut's previous five opponents.  The Aztecs need a hot shooting start from the field, and for that to continue throughout the course of the contest.  Hitting 9-of-18 from long distance kept the Aztecs within striking distance against FAU, though this type of performance is far from the norm for this squad.

PREDICTION

Connecticut has found little resistance during the NCAA Tournament.  Meanwhile, four of San Diego State's five wins during the big dance have been by seven points or less.  The last two wins have been decided in the waning seconds of each game.  UConn has been simply dominating its opponents with a dazzling combination of skilled big men in Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan down low, and superb guard play from Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton on the outside.  The Huskies are favored by 7.5 points, but another double-digit Connecticut win seems even more likely.  Unless the Aztecs come out blazing from the field, expect this contest to follow a similar script as Connecticut's previous five NCAA Tournament games.

--Jesse Siegel

No. 4 Connecticut Huskies

Matchup Overview: While UConn has coasted to the National Championship by winning each of its five games by double-digits, San Diego State has had a much tougher path, with four of its games being decided by seven points or less, including back-to-back one-point victories. UConn was at one point the top-ranked team in the country after a 14-0 start, and despite a stretch in which they went 2-6, have looked like the team we saw in the first half of the season. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have been a consistent team all season long, losing consecutive games on just one occasion while dominating a four-bid Mountain West Conference in both the regular season and conference tournament.

Strength: All-around offensive efficiency. It's not easy to pick just one strength amongst a team that has put on one of the most impressive displays during an NCAA Tournament run thus far. One of the things that has impressed me the most on this team is its ability to score with every player on the court, including the reserves. Although the team has just two double-digit scorers on the season (Adama Sanogo 17.2 pgg, Jordan Hawkins 16.2 ppg), everyone else is a capable and efficient scorer. Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban and Joey Calcaterra are all shooting at least 37 percent from three, and while most teams have a big drop off from their star, that's not the case for UConn. 7-2 Donovan Clingan has been nearly as good off the bench in relief of Sanogo and a force on both ends of the floor.

Weakness: Protecting the basketball. I'm probably nitpicking here, but that's how difficult it is to find something that this squad doesn't do well. Newton and Jackson have both been susceptible to sloppy turnovers, and UConn is coming off a game with 15 turnovers Saturday. Things won't be easier against a much stronger San Diego State defense. Jordan Hawkins' health is also something to monitor, as he was less than 100 percent against Miami, but did play well with 13 points in only 25 minutes of action.

Intangibles: 3-point defense. The Huskies have done an excellent job at defending the perimeter this season, where opponents are shooting just 29.8 percent (15th best in country) and are only allowing 23.1 percent of the opponents' points from three (fourth best in NCAA). During their tournament run, they're allowing five threes per game on 29 percent shooting. That hasn't been a huge strength of San Diego State this season, as the Aztecs haven't made double-digit threes in any of their five NCAA tournament games and have just one player shooting over 36 percent from long-range. However, it's something they may need if they're behind in the second half, and that has been a common theme for UConn's opponents during March Madness.  

UConn will win IF: It controls the glass. A big component in the Aztecs' comeback victory over Florida Atlantic was their ability to get second-chance points. They've won the rebounding battle in all five of their tournament games and have recorded at least 10 offensive rebounds in four straight. That's not going to be an easy task against the length advantage that UConn has -- a team that's also had the rebounding edge in all five of their tournament games. Something will have to give in this one.

PREDICTION

The oddsmakers have UConn as a 7.5-point favorite and for good reason – its dominance and strong play on both ends make the Huskies the team to beat. San Diego State will look to turn this game into a half-court slugfest, relying on its defense that ranks fourth nationally in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. That's something that Saint Mary's tried to do, and did a good job of, as the Gaels trailed by just one at halftime, but Alex Ducas missing the entire second half due to injury was too much to overcome. That gives me reason to think that the Aztecs can keep this game close and would be my pick to cover the spread, but ultimately I expect UConn to prevail as the 2023 National Champions.  

--Ryan Pohle