College Football Best Bets: Big Ten Championship Game
We're on to the conference championship game weekend, and there is none bigger than in the Big Ten Conference.
On Saturday, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, the defending national champion and No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (12-0, 9-0) at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoffs is likely at stake, with the losing team still likely to be very much alive for a bye in the first round of the CFP. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. Let's break down just the third-ever No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle in Big Ten history.
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Ohio State vs. Indiana Betting Odds
Spread: Indiana +4.5 (FanDuel); Ohio State -4 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 47.5 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Ohio State -180 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Indiana +165 (BetMGM)
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Ohio State vs. Indiana Betting Picks
The Big Ten Championship Game started in 2011, when we had the old Legends Division winner vs. the Leaders Division winner facing each other. We've seen the Ohio State Buckeyes in this game on six different occasions, winning the conference title five times. We've never seen the Indiana Hoosiers take the field for a championship -- until now.
Ohio State's last conference title came in 2020 in front of a decreased crowd in Indianapolis due to the COVID-19 global pandemic. The Buckeyes won 22-10 over Northwestern for a fourth consecutive conference title.
While conference and national titles have been the norm for Ohio State, Indiana is in rare territory. The 12 victories are already a program record, it is the first unbeaten season since Indiana went 9-0-1 back in 1945. And, the Hoosiers produced just the sixth 12-0 record in Big Ten conference history, with two of the previous teams going on to win the national title. IU is also the first school in Big Ten history to ever have an unbeaten conference season on the college hardwood and the gridiron.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza completed 72.0 percent of his pass attempts for 2,758 yards, 32 touchdowns and five interceptions, while RB Roman Hemby ran for a team-best 866 yards, 5.3 yards per carry (YPC) and six scores. The Hoosiers have a two-headed monster in the backfield, too, as RB Kaelon Black had 730 yards and 5.8 YPC with seven touchdowns. RB Khobie Martin is more than capable, too, posting 452 yards and six touchdowns, and Heisman candidate Mendoza has six rushing scores, too.
In the passing game, WR Omar Cooper Jr. has managed a team-best 58 receptions for 804 yards and 11 scores, while WR Elijah Sarratt also has 48 grabs for 650 yards and 11 touchdowns, too.
On offense, Ohio State redshirt-freshman QB Julian Sayin threw for 3,065 yards, while completing an impressive 78.9 percent of his passes, while collecting 30 passing TDs and just five picks, one of which came in the regular-season finale on the first drive at Michigan.
Freshman RB Bo Jackson was extremely impressive, going for 952 yards and 6.3 YPC with five scores, while RBs James Peoples (61-344-3) and CJ Donaldson (89-330-10). In the passing game, future NFL star WRs Jeremiah Smith (72-942-11) and Carnell Tate (44-793-8) are hard to hold down. TE Max Klare managed 41 receptions for 420 yards and two scores, while WR Brandon Inniss had 31 receptions for 232 yards and three scores, including one in the Michigan game.
Ohio State finished 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, and it has at least 24 points in each of the past 11 games, with 34 or more in seven of the final eight outings.
Indiana paddled Purdue 56-3 on Nov. 28, easily covering a 28-point spread in the regular-season finale, collecting the Old Oaken Bucket in its rivalry game. The Hoosiers were good for 27 or more points in seven in a row, and 11 of 12 games this season.
It's going to be a wild game, but we're going to side with experience. Ohio State has it, including a run to the national championship last season, while Indiana is navigating these waters for the first time. We'll side with experience, and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's lockdown defense, over the upstart Indiana team, and coach Curt Cignetti's powerhouse.
Big Ten Championship Game Best Bet: Ohio State -4 (BetMGM)
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Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Predictions
Looking to the total for this game, we have a number of things at play. Both Indiana and Ohio State have powerful offenses, particularly in the passing game. In fact, you can expect both Mendoza and Sayin to be in New York as Heisman Trophy finalists, with perhaps one of them hoisting the hardware and joining the exclusive club.
Indiana has scored 55 or more points three times in the past five games, but Ohio State's defense isn't Maryland, Purdue or UCLA. The Hoosiers know a thing or two about defense, too, allowing just 251.8 total yards, 79.3 rushing yards and 10.9 points per game, each ranking No. 2 in the country.
On the flip side, Ohio State allows just 203.0 total yards, 121.3 passing yards and 7.8 points per game, ranking No. 1 in each of those categories.
So, does that mean we're going to see a low-scoring game? With Mendoza, Hemby, Sarratt, Sayin, Smith, Tate and Jackson on the field, it's unlikely. But don't expect a shootout, either.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 30, Indiana 23
Indiana vs. Ohio State Player Props Best Bets for Saturday, December 6
Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt - Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Buckeyes just don't give up a ton of yardage through the air, or any other way, for that matter. In last season's game, Sarratt managed three receptions for a team-best 40 yards, and he did get free for a 19-yard moderate gainer. Being indoors in the controlled environmental conditions of Lucas Oil Stadium will help. We'll have a fast track, with the elements not a factor. But, this Ohio State defense is also heads and tails better than last season, too. You can expect a similar yardage total for Sarratt to last season. Plus, he didn't have another stud receiver like Cooper Jr. on the other side gobbling up targets and yardage.
Ohio State RB CJ Donaldson - Anytime TD Scorer (+210 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Donaldson is the short-yardage specialist for the Buckeyes, and he led the team with 10 rushing touchdowns. Jackson emerged as the workhorse in the backfield, and Peoples is the primary backup capable of handling the mail. Donaldson is the bowling ball, who was effective in short-yardage situations, particularly at or near the goal line. He'll make his presence felt with a touchdown score in this title game, just don't look for an eye-popping yardage total.
