CFB Projections Notebook

College Football Projections Notebook

It's been a multi-month journey to the point where projections have been posted for the power conference teams and the vast majority of fantasy-relevant Group of Five players as well. While I didn't end up recording notes on every team, I tried to take note of some interesting finds. I took notes on a number of teams and players based on news articles and other information I found.

These notes are recorded chronologically, dating back to May for the ACC. Projections have been adjusted since notes were taken, and some players may have moved in ADP since notes were jotted down. These were initially meant for personal reference at a later date, but I figured I'd pass them along to readers as well.

ACC Notes

Clemson: Improved QB play from Klubnik with Antonio Williams back, Tyler Brown progressing, Brinningstool back 

Georgia Tech: Most of the offensive returning production back, Defense outside the top 100 in returning production, and SOS increases. 
-Tough schedule and three bye weeks, something to keep an eye on

Duke: Manny Diaz installing similar offense to Miami 2021 with Van Dyke?

- Jaquez Moore: No more Jordan Waters, likely headed for larger carry share despite Star Thomas' entrance

Pitt: New OC, run uptempo, more RB involvement in passing game and more pass attempts overall (30-40 per game)

SMU: Week 0 game, transition to full power conference schedule, Preston Stone minimal fantasy output in two games against power teams last season.

-SOS still decent and bye weeks not as much of a detriment, playoff schedule favorable

-Jaylan Knighton missed essentially three games last year, north of 30 percent carry share when healthy. Undervalued?

Miami

Damien Martinez: People discounting Mark Fletcher (graded out well in PFF) and the use of multiple backs a bit too much

Big Ten Notes

Minnesota - Turnover at multiple O-line positions, added depth at RB, slightly softer schedule?

-Darius Taylor only featured against Eastern Michigan, UNC, Northwestern, Bowling Green, missed meat of schedule. Averaged just 3.7 YPC vs Iowa

-Very difficult schedule in 2024

Indiana

-Cignetti brought in a lot of talent (Rourke, Black, Ellison, Lawton, Sarratt, Cross, Price, plus two talented wideouts in tow)

-Favorable first six weeks

UCLA - TJ Harden

Slower tempo under Eric Bieniemy offense, slight upgrade in projected pass attempts. Very difficult strength of schedule. Deshaun Murrell brought back Keegan Jones and sounded like he was siphoning lots of carries and impressing in spring.

Big 12 Notes

TCU

-Trey Sanders goal-line vulture from Cam Cook? Sanders had receiving plays called for him in spring, may indicate he's in line for passing down duties, which would lower Cook's value

Cincinnati

-Simply job security for Brendan Sorsby. Brady Lichtenberg seems to be right there, hence why Sorsby a bit lower on list, but upside is there.

Colorado

Travis Hunter underdrafted at WR?

 -25.7 percent target share from Week 7 on last season

-41 catches for 508 yards and 5 TDs in that span

Kansas State

-Garrett Oakley flying under the radar but viewed as standout in an offense that churned out Ben Sinnott last year

SEC Notes

Kentucky - Brock Vandagriff (expected to run more in new offense, emphasis of Hamdan)

LSU - Josh Williams' impact being discounted, he was running with first-team offense late in spring. Seeing varied speculation on depth chart, but Williams will presumably still be heavily involved

-Kaleb Jackson overvalued as a result?

Chris Hilton - One of two solidified in starting role for Tigers alongside Kyren Lacy. Aaron Anderson possibly in the slot, CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas seem to be behind them according to spring reports.

Group of Five Team Notes

Rice

-Very high on Dean Conners. Think he could claim a huge role with Juma Otaviano and Luke McCaffrey gone.

San Diego State

-Sean Lewis bringing Colorado-style offense to SDSU, should lead to some WR production

-Air Coryell offense being installed in 2024, changing offensive scheme may detract from running backs, including Marquez Cooper

-Cooper overdrafted on Fantrax?

Colorado State

-Clay Millen started opener, Fowler-Nicolosi threw fewer passes in first game. Loses Holker but Tory Horton back and easier schedule, certainly plausible he tops numbers from last year

-Justin Marshall losing a couple OL, returns nothing special but easier schedule and had a massive role at end of season

-Take a shot at a Colorado State tight end in draft: Jaxxon Warren? Vince Brown? Peter Montini?

Fresno State

Malik Sherrod only held lead role from Week 7 on last year and finished with 44 catches, a ton of carries

Jacksonville State

Logan Smothers set to go off if he wins the starting job? 14 rushing TDs combined in Rich Rod offense last year

FAU

Omari Hayes heir to LaJohntay Wester role?

-Big showing in spring game

Central Michigan

-Drops a power conference team from schedule (Michigan State and Notre Dame last year, just Illinois this year), so expected output should rise a bit across the board. Reflected in win total heavily favoring over on 5.5-win line after just five wins last year.

Marion Lukes - this was me toning down projections some. Lukes 41-plus percent carry share in each of last five games. Two were over 50 percent, but Myles Bailey largely missed both of them. 

Tulsa

Kamdyn Benjamin improve on last year?

-Six TDs over last six games after none in first six, target share jumped to 29.2 percent over that span with 11.1 percent TD/Tgt ratio

San Jose State

-"Spread-N-Shred" supposedly incoming under Ken Niumatololo (Craig Stutzmann at OC has the experience with it. Derived from Hawaii's Run-N-Shoot under June Jones

-Lose a ton of players on both sides of the ball, and Jay Butterfield being off the roster is certainly not good at the QB spot.

Nick Nash moving to slot receiver?

-Doesn't exactly fit the body type, but it seems that may be the move, and slot wideouts are the focal point of that offense.

-QB situation seems pretty rough, so may impact his output

UMass

Anthony Simpson ADP puzzling

-Target share over last five games: 34.3 percent

-Returning QB, grabbed experience O-linemen in portal

-Easier schedule in 2024, so potential for more scoring

-Tons of receivers gone, from room, did add via portal

-Even if we suggest transfer portal adds take away

Akron

-Ben Finley reportedly inching ahead in QB competition (more pro-style QB)

Alex Adams

-Benefits from pro-style QB, presumably more pass attempts

-A year removed from 855 yards, 9 TDs, so talent is there

-Little information on health since last year

Bowling Green

-Rostering BG players early in season is rough. Week 1 vs. Fordham but then Penn St., Bye, Texas A&M means three straight potentially on bench. Better for leagues with deep benches.

Buffalo

-New scheme tough to peg down with Patenaude having minimal time with personnel to run his offense (took over triple-option offense at Ga Tech)

Ball State

-Braedon Sloan the favorite to start? Did everything at Ball State last year, including catching 39 of 47 passes

Ty Robinson 

-14 targets against Kentucky and Georgia in first two weeks before season-ending injury

-Kadin Semonza set to start, more passing attack this year than with Kiael Kelly under center

Marshall

-Implementing air raid offense under Seth Doege

-Elijah Metcalf presumably headed for slot role, which is often a high-level producer in air-raid scheme.

-Cade Conley an afterthought?

South Alabama

Gio Lopez underrated?

-Really solid receiving room despite losing Caulin Lacy (Jamaal Pritchett (big year last year), Devin Voisin (64-871-5 line in 2022), 

Georgia Southern

Jalen White a little overrated?

-OJ Arnold still in mix in pass-heavy offense.

-Even nearly 50 percent carry share (being generous) doesn't get him to where he's being drafted.
 

Southern Miss

-Rodrigues Clark set to take over lead duties for Southern Miss? Tons of carries on the table but they lose a lot on the offensive line