This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Citrus Bowl Picks: South Carolina vs. Illinois
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White hot South Carolina, winners of six straight, head to Orlando to face Illinois in the Citrus Bowl. The Gamecocks sit at 9-3 overall, an equal 9-3 ATS, with the over hitting in a surprisingly high seven times. Illinois counters with an equal 9-3 SU record, going 8-4 ATS, while the over has cashed just five times, but in each of their last three outings.
South Carolina vs. Illinois Citrus Bowl Odds
Spread: South Carolina -8.5 ( -105 Caesars Sportsbook), Illinois +9.5 (-105 ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110 Caesars Sportsbook), Under 49.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: South Carolina -330 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Illinois +275 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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This spread is trending downward, opening at (-11.5) in favor of South Carolina, and, per usual in bowl season, is directly correlated to who's playing. Both sides seem to have confirmed who's in and who's out, so I wouldn't expect additional sharp movement here as we've seen in other games.
With the decline in the spread, the moneyline has moved congruently, as Illinois at +330 and is now as low as +260 at FanDuel. South Carolina opened at -425, and is still as high as -400 at BetMGM and ESPN Bet.
Somewhat to my surprise, the total has actually gone up since it opened at 47.5, and only Caesars has this at 49.0; it's otherwise universally a half a point higher.
South Carolina vs. Illinois Citrus Bowl Betting Picks
South Carolina won't have RB Raheim Sanders or DE Kyle Kennard, two pretty significant losses. They'll also have a new play-caller, Mike Shula, who will take over as offensive coordinator after Dowell Loggains is hired to lead Appalachian State. Illinois, meanwhile, will be down top wide receiver Pat Bryant, who had 984 yards and 10 touchdowns.
It doesn't appear to be a terrific matchup for Illinois, who ran for 97.3 yards per game in their three losses and 169.1 in their nine wins, as the Gamecocks rank 12th nationally against the run, allowing 106.3 ypg and 3.1 ypc. Add in the loss of Bryant, and it's fair to expect the passing game to struggle, especially in the face of South Carolina's elite pass rush that likely doesn't drop off substantially without Kennard.
Both teams have the motivation to earn a tenth win, and I haven't trusted this offense all season, but it's worked, and they're out to prove their late-season surge wasn't a fluke and that, as of November, they were amongst the best in the nation. Illinois wasn't particularly competitive against Penn State and Oregon, and if the Gamecocks believe they're in that territory, they cover here and cause the game to go over the total as a result.
South Carolina vs. Illinois Best Bet: South Carolina -8.5 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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South Carolina vs. Illinois Citrus Bowl Betting Predictions
We haven't touched on South Carolina's secondary, which has been borderline elite, allowing just 6.6 ypa and nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions and seems likely to be at full strength. It's difficult to find a clear path for the Illini to consistently sustain drives; they don't appear likely to be able to run or pass with regularity.
Bret Bielema will have a solid game plan to make those predictions look silly, and their defense is no pushover. This won't be easy for the Gamecocks, but they'll begin to pull away in the second half, with LaNorris Sellers extending drives and wearing down the defense.
South Carolina 31-20
