New Year's Day isn't just about resolutions; it's about fireworks on the field. The College Football Playoff quarterfinal tripleheader delivers elite talent, high stakes, and DFS gold. With coaching changes and contrasting styles, this slate is loaded with leverage spots and ceiling plays. Before I get to the FanDuel DFS recommendations, here's a rundown of Thursday's bowl slate.
CFB DFS Slate Overview for New Year's Day
Game 1: Orange Bowl - Oregon vs. Texas Tech (51.5 points)
Game 2: Rose Bowl - Indiana vs. Alabama (48.5 points)
Game 3: Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs. Ole Miss (55.5 points)
The three-game New Year's Day slate offers distinct scoring environments, so your DFS strategy should start with game totals. The Sugar Bowl (Georgia vs. Ole Miss) carries the highest over/under at 55.5, signaling the best spot for offensive fireworks. The game is ideal for stacking, pairing a quarterback with one or two pass-catchers, because the pace and explosive potential create ceiling outcomes. If you're building multiple lineups, prioritize exposure here, as it's the most likely game to produce slate-breaking scores.
The Orange Bowl (Oregon vs. Texas Tech) sits in the middle with a 51.5 total, suggesting balanced scoring. This matchup is perfect for secondary stacks or one-off plays, as both teams can score but may lean on ball control at times. Meanwhile, the Rose Bowl (Indiana vs. Alabama) has the lowest total at 48.5, pointing to more of a defensive grind. While this game may not deliver shootout upside, it can provide leverage through contrarian plays, especially if roster percentage concentrates on the higher-total games. Targeting a few key pieces here can differentiate your lineup without sacrificing too much ceiling.
Quarterback DFS Plays for New Year's Day
Ty Simpson, Alabama vs. Indiana ($8,700): Simpson is coming off a solid playoff opener (232 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oklahoma) and has experience in high-pressure games in the SEC. While Indiana does boast a top-five defense nationally, it's elite at stopping the run, which will allow for a lot of volume for Simpson. Volume gives Simpson a lot of contrarian appeal and sets him up for a possible low play percentage scenario. He's the fifth-highest-priced QB on the slate, so going with Simpson frees up some capital for other players in the lineup.
Behren Morton, Texas Tech vs. Oregon ($8,300): Morton is a little cheaper than Simpson and arguably has the highest ceiling of all the signal callers playing on New Year's Day. The only concern is that he also offers the most volatility. He's battled some lingering injuries on and off throughout the season, but he does lead one of the most explosive offenses when the Red Raiders are clicking. Morton makes an excellent play in GPP formats and stacking him with other Texas Tech playmakers.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana vs. Alabama ($10,000): If you prefer to go safe at the QB position, go with Mendoza, who is an absolute baller. The Heisman winner is the most stable option on the entire slate as he tends to be productive even in games where Indiana controls the tempo. He excels at identifying pressure and is able to dissect the defense at all levels of the field. He also tends to like having the ball in his hands in the red zone, which makes him a high-floor play.
Running Back DFS Plays for New Year's Day
J'Koby Williams, Texas Tech vs. Oregon ($6,600): Teammate Cameron Dickey ($9,600) is an awesome player, but the price tag on Williams is much more manageable for a balanced lineup. Williams' vision and burst allow him to exploit gaps in the defense, and he's proven capable of breaking chunk runs against aggressive fronts. If Tech can keep the game close and maintain balance, Williams' volume and red-zone role make him a strong value play with a path to 10+ touches and touchdown upside.
Nate Frazier, Georgia vs. Ole Miss ($7,000): Frazier has been a steady force in Georgia's run-heavy scheme this year. He's averaged 5.4 yards per carry behind one of the nation's best offensive lines. Against Ole Miss, Frazier's path to success lies in pounding the ball inside and controlling the time of possession. If the Bulldogs establish early dominance up front, Frazier should see a high-volume workload with multiple scoring opportunities, making him a reliable option in a game projected for the highest total on the slate.
Kaelon Black, Indiana vs. Alabama ($6,000): Black was underrated all season long with 143 carries for 798 yards (5.6 YPC) and seven touchdowns. He's part of a balanced attack alongside Roman Hemby ($7,100), giving Indiana a strong 1-2 punch behind an elite offensive line. Black's role is primarily early down and short-yardage work which should be in play against Alabama. His path to DFS value comes from efficiency and touchdown equity in a game projected for 48.5 points, where every red-zone carry matters.
Noah Whittington, Oregon vs. Texas Tech ($7,700): Whittington has been the Ducks' best back this season with 798 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 116 carries for an impressive 6.9 yards per carry. He's also been active in the passing game with 24 targets across 11 games, including at least two targets in four of his last five contests. Against Texas Tech, the matchup sets up well for Whittington to rack up targets. Tech's defense is aggressive and it's possible they force Oregon to check down to the running back. This is a sneaky play that has expected low percentage.
Wide Receiver DFS plays for New Year's Day
Ryan Williams, Alabama vs. Indiana ($5,800): At the low, low price of $5,800, Williams offers salary relief with upside, especially if you believe Alabama will play catch-up. He's not a lock for cash games due to volatility and a rollercoaster sophomore season, but in GPP builds, he's a strong leverage play because other DFS players will likely flock to higher-total games such as the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl. If he hits on a deep shot or red-zone target, he can smash value. I'll always take a chance on a talent like Williams at this price point in a huge game.
Harrison Wallace, Ole Miss vs. Georgia ($7,000): Teammate Cayden Lee ($5,900) provides better value at a lower price; however, Wallace offers more stability and volume. He's received at least five targets in each of his last four games. That's going to be important in a game where Ole Miss is likely to be fighting from behind. This is my only recommendation for the Rebels, as that's a tough offense outside of their top two guys at QB and RB, who are quite expensive.
Elijah Sarratt, Indiana vs. Alabama ($9,000): Because we've saved some money at other positions, it's possible to stack Mendoza with one of his top receivers. Sarratt has emerged as his go-to target in high-leverage situations. Against Alabama's aggressive defense, Indiana may lean on quick passes and intermediate routes, which play perfectly into what Sarratt does well. This is best suited for cash builds where you want reliability and correlation.
Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech vs. Oregon ($7,200): Douglas is a fantastic GPP pairing with Morton at QB for the Orange Bowl for many reasons. The versatile receiver thrives on deep routes and contested catches, which could happen against the Ducks. With most DFS players gravitating towards stacks from the Georgia-Ole Miss game, this has some contrarian upside at a reasonable salary. If Morton connects on one or two deep shots, this stack can break the slate. This is an ideal play for GPP builds where you're chasing ceiling and differentiation.
