This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Big 12 Championship
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Conference realignment has generated some unlikely foes, and the new-look Big 12 will feature a Championship with two teams that have never faced each other. There's no house advantage as Arizona State and Iowa State travel to Arlington, Texas, to face off at AT&T Stadium, but the Sun Devils certainly have momentum on their side. The latest CFP rankings have Arizona State ranked 15th, but most pundits are predicting a win and an automatic bid as the fifth-highest conference championship winner. Iowa State is game to play the spoiler, and the Cyclones are shaping u to be the Sun Devils' stiffest competition of the season.
Big 12 Championship Game Betting Odds for Championship Week
Spread: Arizona State -1 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Iowa State +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 49.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook, Under 49.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Arizona State -115 (Caesars Sportsbook), Iowa State even (BetMGM)
The spread has danced around a bit for the contest, as it began as a virtual pick 'em to begin the week but shifted as public money flowed to Arizona State. Most sites could settle on 2.5 either way by kickoff. The total has remained constant, and there's currently no clear advantage for a moneyline bet due to the ATS vig margins.
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Big 12 Championship Game Betting Picks
The most significant data point influencing my pick involves Iowa State's rushing defense metrics. The team ranks 94th nationally in ORY, surrendering an average of 173 yards per game to opposing rushers. That's a troubling statistic when you consider the opposition, as Cam Skattebo is fully healthy and one of the most potent rushers in the country. A decent point of comparison is Iowa State's game against UCF, where they faced RJ Harvey, who ranks just ahead of Skattebo. Although Iowa State pulled out a slim win, Harvey hung 195 yards on the Cyclones, contributing to a total of 364 rushing yards overall in the slim win. Arizona State has fared much better against the run and has improved significantly over the last month, but defending the run won't be their primary concern. Iowa State's passing game feautres the only tandem in the country that shares 1,000-yard receiving totals in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and the Sun Devils have faced some challenges in defending the pass. BYU's Jake Retzlaff excelled with 297 yards against them, and Kansas State's Avery Johnson put up 258 yards against them as well. It's worth noting that these two quarterbacks also threw a total of four interceptions, so the team is far from incompetent in defending an apt passing attack. The game could come down to who emerges as the better signal-caller, and there are some issues to address with both players that we'll discuss in a moment, but first, we'll make our wager.
Momentum is in Arizona State's favor, and there's plenty of favorable data to accompany the intangibles. The game will be close, but Kenny Dillingham will get his team to the CFP with a win.
Big 12 Championship Game Expert Pick: Arizona State -1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Big 12 Championship Predictions
As we said, the game should come down to the play of Rocco Becht and Sam Leavitt, and one of them will have to shift their usual playbook. Jordyn Tyson will be out, and he is Leavitt's top receiving target by a wide margin. While this is a dangerous warning sign for Arizona State's offense, they have enough talent to offset the loss on their bench - these guys just haven't seen enough targets to contribute. We've seen flashes of brilliance from Xavier Guillory and Chamon Metayer, and even redshirt freshman Derek Eusebio showed up with a 65-yard touchdown catch against Arizona last week. These receivers should step up, but it's clearly advantageous to Becht, who has two healthy elite wideouts at his disposal. Arizona State also heavily depends on Skattebo, but the metrics look good, and he's proven to be matchup-proof throughout the season.
