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Chris' Picks
Hey, a winning week! We got off to a hot start with a few totals that aren't my forte and kept it going, with my only loss being a Texas State side that blew a 22-point first-quarter lead. Pair that with a fourth straight win in our single-game featured columns, and maybe, just maybe, we're trending up.
As always, I like to note a favorite play or two from Sunday night that I've cooled on mid-week. This week, that's Connecticut (-17) vs. Temple. Yes, I still think they cover this number, but it opened at a 12.5-point spread, so that's some significant line movement. Louisiana Lafayette (-14.5) is another one I had circled, when it opened at (-11.5).
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at North Carolina
I just don't know what UNC has to give at this point. They gave up 70 points to JMU two weeks ago, rallied and built a 20-0 lead at rival Duke last week; and still blew that lead over the final quarter and a half last week. Pitt, meanwhile, is coming off of a bye, ranks seventh in the nation in passing, adding a sterling 14:2 TD:INT ratio, and the Tar Heels' 94th-ranked pass defense likely offers little resistance. Pitt has never won in Chapel Hill, but UNC will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Penn State (-27.5) vs. UCLA
You're going to need to line shop here, as this number is as high as (-28) in some places, but FanDuel still had this slightly more favorable spread as of Wednesday evening. UCLA has played three Power 4 schools to date, scoring 13, 17 and 13 points, and this Penn State defense is by far the best they'll have faced. They've given up at least 34 points in each outing, so we've got the framework. They're also traveling east for a noon kickoff. Further, hopefully working in our favor, UCLA has been solid against the run and horrible against the pass, potentially not allowing Penn State to ground and pound, at least early, while scoring more points. This big of a spread with the low total is scary, but not if the Bruins don't score.
Boston College (+1.5) at Virginia
This play is completely dependent on BC QB Thomas Castellanos being healthy and playing four quarters. And my game script thought may suggest the safer play is the under at 53.5, which is trending up from 50.5 on Sunday. I'm expecting the Eagles and HC Bill O'Brien to slow this down and grind it out. They're running game has struggled over the last three weeks, but with Castellanos, it's a reliable threat to move sticks and churn clock. They've played on the road twice this season, winning easily at Florida State and pushing Missouri to the brink. This shouldn't be as daunting and I like them to win straight up.
Tulane (-14.5) at UAB
This absolutely reeks of a trap, but I'm biting anyway. UAB is not good, beating just Alcorn State while losing to Arkansas, Louisiana-Monroe, and Navy, allowing 32 points in each of those defeats. They'd previously been elite against the pass because they ranked 119th against the run, so teams were allowed to be one-dimensional. Then Navy threw for 225 yards against them last week. Tulane is off a blowout win over a decent USF team and previously pushed Kansas State to the brink. I'll give them a pass in a blowout to Oklahoma the week after facing the Wildcats. They've topped 40 points in all three of their wins, with two coming by far more than this number. Only a letdown prevents them from blowing out the Blazers.
Rutgers (+7) at Nebraska
I think I'm reaching here, but I don't want to go all double-digit favorites. If I did, Georgia looks interesting. But this spread just feels too high, given the low total of 41.0 points. And the spread seems to be rising and the total falling! Rutgers is incredibly bad against the run, having allowed over 6.0 ypc in each of their last three games. Nebraska hasn't been elite rushing but surely will attack that, keeping scoring and possessions at a minimum. I really can't get over Rutgers' offensive attack as they essentially line up in the same formation on every play, but they'll pound Kyle Monangai as often as they can and keep this close. 20-14 works for me.
Last week: 4-1; season 12-13
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Greg's Picks
The winning streak came to an end this past week, but at least we didn't crash and burn. It was a pretty tight 2-3 that could have gone the 3-2 route if a thing or two went my way.
The week started with an annoying loss on NIU, which was within range of covering all day at N.C. State, but couldn't quite get within the number. That was followed by an easy win on UConn as the Huskies blew out Buffalo. The next game was the one that changed a winning week into a losing one. Michigan was in control of the game against Minnesota for most of the day, but then the Wolverines let up, and the Gophers took advantage. I'll say this, Michigan's offense is not good, it's going to be a problem all year. Next up, we had another easy win on UNLV that looked just fine without their recently departed starting QB. We wrapped it up with a frustrating loss on Texas. Not frustrating because it was close, but frustrating because Texas should have had no problem scoring on Mississippi State, but alas.
Missouri (+2.5) at Texas A&M
It's been a tale of two seasons with Missouri this season. The Tigers started strong by blowing out weak competition, but once the opponents got a little better, they struggled. This week should go a long way to giving us a better idea of who they are. Though the Tigers have struggled the past two weeks, I think they'll see those two games as ones they got away with, and now we'll start to see their full potential. Texas A&M is coming off a nice win against Arkansas, but I don't think the Aggies have enough offense to keep up with Missouri…if the Tigers come to play. I like the points here, but a straight-up play seems reasonable as well.
Penn State (-27.5) vs. UCLA
It's hard to get my head around these huge spreads on UCLA this year, but the fact of the matter is that the Bruins are just a bad team this year. The only thing they do well is stop the run, but then maybe the reason for that is that teams can throw on them so easily that they don't need to run. Penn State struggled with Illinois this past week, but that was somewhat easy to see, as Illinois is a pesky team. UCLA is not a pesky team, and if Penn State shows up, this will be a blowout. The Nittany Lions might not find it easy to run, but the passing lanes will be open all day.
Indiana (-13.5) at Northwestern
My first inclination was to side with the Wildcats here because I think the hype train might be going a bit too fast on the Hoosiers right now, but after diving into the numbers, I think Indiana is on the right side. I say that while admitting that the Hoosiers' schedule to this point has been terrible, so some of the numbers accumulated might be a mirage. With that said, they've been really impressive on both sides of the ball, especially on offense and it's the balance on offense that's going to be the difference this week. While the Wildcats have been good against the run this season, they've been pretty bad against the pass, and here comes Kurtis Rourke. Northwestern's offense has been terrible this season, and I don't see them keeping pace in this spot.
Ohio State (-19.5) vs. Iowa
Ohio State got off to a slow start this season, but the Buckeyes have looked the part of a championship contender over the past few weeks. The Buckeyes are getting it done in all facets, ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards allowed while landing in the top 15 in those categories on offense. Iowa is coming in off a bye, which was preceded by an impressive road win at Minnesota. The Hawkeyes were able to capture that game by running the ball, something that will be very difficult to do this week. If the run game isn't working, the Hawkeyes will be in big trouble, as the passing game has been non-existent this season. On the other side, Iowa should be able to slow down the Buckeyes on the ground, but through the air is a different story.
Over (65.5) Oklahoma State 
vs. West Virginia 
If both of these defenses play like they've played to this point in the season, there will be a ton of yards. Whether that equates to points or not, I can't say, but I would expect the points to flow. The Cowboys only scored 20 points this past week, but they managed to get their run game going, which will lead to easier passing lanes. As for the defense, well that's a mess, the Cowboys rank 118th against the run and 121st against the pass this season. WVU's offense is middle of the pack, but it's balanced, and that should allow the Mountaineers to move the ball all day. As for WVU's defense, it's almost as bad as OSU's, ranking 111th against the pass and 83rd against the run.
Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 12-13-0
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Jeff's Picks
Thanks to a canceled game, I could not go 5-0 this week.
4-0 though? You bet.
My four remaining picks came through last week with very little sweat involved. None of them came close to dangerous territory, as Navy, Iowa State and Nebraska won handily, and James Madison blasted the Over. To catch up with my colleagues, I am going to pick six teams this week to even things out and hopefully keep the good vibes going.
Clemson -14 @ Florida State
The Tigers have historically had problems getting out of Tallahassee with a win, but with the way Cade Klubnik and the defense are playing, this one shouldn't be close. The Tigers managed to avoid a much-anticipated reunion with DJ Uiagalelei thanks to a finger injury, but he was probably destined for the bench anyway after a miserable first month with the Seminoles. Instead, Florida State will roll with Brock Glenn, a sophomore who has thrown 51 passes over his two years with the program. Glenn's resume isn't great - he was the quarterback responsible for the 68-3 beatdown the team received against Georgia in last year's Orange Bowl. Granted, Clemson isn't Georgia, but the Tigers held the Bulldogs before falling apart in the second half and have been imposing in every game since. The offense isn't the only issue for the Seminoles. The defense has allowed an average of 168 yards to opposing rushers. Although their ability to defend the pass is a little better, Klubnik poses a major problem for almost every secondary in the country right now. Playing at home is the Seminoles' best weapon, but I don't expect Clemson to care. the Tigers have taken the foot off the gas and made for some close covers, but I doubt that will happen against one of their most hated rivals.
Navy -9.5 @ Air Force
The Midshipmen look like a playoff-worthy squad in the first month of the season. Blake Horvath is running a triple-option offense that has a couple of additional tricks in the bag, and they've put up an average of 46 points per game as a result. On the other end, the Falcons are 1-3 and have failed to score over 21 points this season. Baylor and Wyoming destroyed them, and I would wager that Navy is the best team of that trio. I took Navy last week with confidence, and I'm going right back to the well with them here.
Louisville -7 vs. SMU
I preferred this line at -6.5, but it moved at the last minute. I still think Tyler Shough and the offense have the advantage here. Sure, SMU has hung massive totals on multiple teams this season, but Florida State's offense gave the Mustangs too many offensive opportunities, and TCU's defense is terrible. When they had to face a quality team with multiple weapons (BYU), they folded. Conversely, Louisville's offense has been consistent and was one touchdown away from beating Notre Dame on the road. Although I think Slough will find Caulin Lacy often through the air, the real star of this game will be Louisville's defense. Austin Gillotte is one of the best defensive linemen in America, and the Cardinals' secondary line up well against SMU's receivers. It's close, but Lousiville covers.
Iowa State -11.5 vs. Baylor
It's time for the ever-popular White-Out game in Ames, and the Cyclones are looking like a team worthy of the Big 12 title right now. Although I think Baylor's move to Sawyer Robertson is the right call for the offense, the defense has kept them out of the win column. Colorado and BYU pushed them around, and they only managed 12 points against Utah. Rocco Becht is very efficient with the offense, but the defense is the headliner here. They've allowed 29 total points over four games this season, with the majority of them coming against Iowa. The hostile home environment and shut-down defense will allow the Cyclones to prevail.
USC -8 @ Minnesota
USC showed real grit and resilience in unseasonably hot weather to upend the Badgers after a flat start. When I look at this game, one thing stands out - the size advantage for USC at wide receiver. Minnesota is woefully undersized at critical positions for pass protection, and a guy like Duce Robinson will tower over these guys. Zachariah Branch and Makai Lemon are the only wideouts below six feet on the roster. Robinson is 6-6, and Ja'Kobi Lane is 6-4. Miller Moss will find a way to get the big men the ball, and thanks to an improved defense, The Gophers won't be able to do much.
Indiana -13.5 @ Northwestern
Indiana is red-hot right now, and they're poised to blow the Wildcats out of that little shack of a stadium they're playing in this year. The Hoosiers are 5-0 and have never been at risk of losing, and that game script will continue here. The wind of Lake Michigan may be of some concern, but they could just hand the ball off to Justice Ellison and Kaelon Black and win the game outright. Kurtis Rourke will still get the job done. He has 11 passing touchdowns on the year and has only thrown two picks, so Northwestern will have a hard time forcing the Hoosiers into mistakes. The Hoosiers should win this one by multiple touchdowns.
Last week: 4-0-0
Season: 12-12-0
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