College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
Chris' Picks
I'm not sure I've ever been more frustrated than this season. Last week was just flat-out bad; two favorites lost outright, and Virginia getting a pick-six with 39 seconds left to cover has me back underwater and with not much time left to fix it. I'll keep guessing and get a few right, but unfortunately, I haven't been so bad that you could just fade my picks and be churning out units.
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Jacksonville State (-1) at UTEP
I'm not sure what to make of the Miners' run defense; they're allowing just 3.6 ypc, but opponents keep hammering it at them, with six of eight rushing at least 40 times. We know that's coming again Saturday with the Gamecocks' fifth-ranked rushing attack in town. Only two teams have held them under 213 yards, and their season-low is 39 rushing attempts. UTEP has beaten winless Sam Houston State and UT Martin, so until they beat someone who is likely to be bowl-eligible, I'll assume they won't.
Coastal Carolina (-7.5) vs. Georgia State
Not a team I expected to be targeting after they were crushed through the first five games of the year, but Tim Beck may have worked his way off the hot seat, guiding the Chanticleers to three straight wins. They've cranked up their run game, rushing for 286, 246 and 214 yards against defenses that rank 68th, 23rd and 68th against it. Georgia State ranks 131st! They've only beaten Murray State, and all of their losses are by at least a touchdown.
Florida (-3) at Kentucky
One rule I try to follow is not to swing too far in the opposite direction week to week, and I'm breaking that here as I thought Florida would wilt against Georgia last week. Perhaps the rivalry, and one-week spike from an interim coach, was in play, and it fell apart here. Kentucky has lost all three of its home SEC games, but two were by exactly three points, so it's dicey. But I'll play the game of who do I trust least, and that's the Wildcats. Their offense is just bad, topping 14 points twice in league play. DJ Lagway hasn't been elite, but he's at least not turning it over as often. Kentucky got winning out of the way last week; they won't get two in a row.
UCLA (-1.5) vs. Nebraska
All about the injury to Dylan Raiola, allowing me to think the Bruins can win. They had a week off to lick their wounds after Indiana thumped them, but the Cornhuskers aren't the same offensive juggernaut. Backup/now starter TJ Latleef went 5-for-7 for seven yards in relief last week. Seven yards?! UCLA's run defense is pretty bad, allowing 5.2 ypc, but Nebraska has struggled on the ground, three times in league play being held to 67 yards or less. Without a major threat from Latleef, the Bruins can key on stopping the run. Nico Iamaleava should give UCLA a boost and win this game with his arm and legs.
UNLV (-4.5) at Colorado State
Perhaps I can turn things around simply by targeting smaller numbers against bad teams. Colorado State is most certainly that, beating just Northern Colorado and Fresno State. And they have issues under center, with QB1 having transferred out, QB2 tossing six TDs and three INTs before being benched, and now likely using QB3 in Darius Curry here. UNLV has lost two straight and should bring its best to snap that skid. Both sides are woeful against the run, but UNLV is far more equipped to exploit that. And they can score, averaging 36.9 points while CSU is at 19.1, topping 24 points just twice.
Last week: 1-4; Season: 23-27
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Greg's Picks
Back on the winning side this past week, as I found three wins.
The week started with a win on the under in the UNC-Syracuse game on Friday night. That game went as expected, with two teams struggling to get much going on offense. The first win on Saturday was on Ohio State, which played with its food for a half, then took control and dominated in the 2nd half. The last win of the week was on the over in the N.C. State – Georgia Tech game and this was the easiest win of the week. Both teams moved the ball well all game, and points were plentiful.
Only two losses this past week, the first on the Gophers as they failed to put away a bad team with its backup QB starting. The Gophers are going to end the season 8-4 with only one decent win. My initial line had them at -3, but it moved to 3.5 by Saturday, and that was the difference between a push and a loss. The second loss was on USC, which won the game, but was never in a position to cover.
Indiana (-14.5) at Penn State
Are the Hoosiers at the point now where you just take them without even looking into the numbers? Outside of the Iowa game, the Hoosiers have steamrolled everyone in their path, and I see no reason that changes this week. There's no look-ahead here; only bottom feeders remain on their schedule, so I'm sure they see this as the final spot where they could potentially lose, which will only work to get them ready for this game. The big issue for Penn State here is that they rely on the ground gam,e and Indiana is 4th in the nation in rush yards allowed per game. Indiana holds a big advantage on the other side of the ball as well, ranking 6th in yards per game on the ground, while Penn State ranks 89th.
Mississippi State (+8.5) vs. Georgia
Georgia is coming off yet another closer-than-it-should-have-been win this past week, and I'm expecting that pattern to continue this week. The Bulldogs have a habit of keeping lesser teams in games and if they aren't careful, they're going to lose one of these weeks. Mississippi State has flown under the radar this season, but the Bulldogs have fought really hard in every game. MSU has four losses on the season, but just one was by more than a touchdown. The Bulldogs' two most recent home games were vs. Tennessee and Texas and both went to OT. Georgia is coming off an emotional win with Texas on deck. I can see the Bulldogs looking past this one.
Under (44.5) 
Wisconsin vs. 
Washington
The season went off the rails weeks ago for the Badgers, but it's primarily been the fault of the offense; the defense has been put in some bad spots, but has played better than their record might indicate. Washington has been all over the map this season, but one thing has held true all year: the Huskies' offense has been much better at home than on the road. Wisconsin will continue to play well on defense, while struggling on offense, and the Huskies will grind out a win here, but there won't be a lot of points scored.
Alabama (-9.5) vs. LSU
Is LSU going to get a bounce after firing Brian Kelly after its most recent loss? Not likely. It's too late in the season, and there's really nothing left to play for. This hasn't been a disastrous season for the Tigers; they've battled in almost every game, but the bar is set pretty high in Baton Rouge, so it's time to move on. Alabama, meanwhile, has everything to play for. The 'Tide currently sits atop the SEC and is aiming for a playoff berth. The 'Tide already has one loss this season and can't afford to slip up in a spot like this. Further bolstering my opinion on this game is the fact that 'Bama has taken care of business at home this year, with double-digit wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
UCLA (-1.5) vs. Nebraska
Whatever hopes the Cornhuskers had for this season went out the window this past week when they not only lost to USC, but lost starting QB Dylan Raiola for the season. Now they must travel across the country to play a UCLA team that has played much better since a coaching change this past month. Yeah, the Bruins were thumped by Indiana, but who hasn't been thumped by Indiana? Nebraska wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire with Raiola, so I have to imagine it only gets worse without him.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season 28-22-0
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Jeff's Picks
My chance of breaking even this season is slipping away, as I stumbled my way into another 1-4 week despite my best efforts. I managed to seal my toughest bet of the week with the Florida cover thanks to a miracle kneel from Georgia's quarterback, but my other attempts were futile. I was on the wrong side of Oklahoma, and although USC pulled out a win, they were smothered by Nebraska's pass defense and didn't produce enough to cover. I remain undaunted, but it's going to be hard to rally and overcome a demoralizing finish after coming close to a 60 percent win rate last season.
Over 40.5 
Iowa vs. 
Oregon
Oregon's offense experienced a significant regression against Wisconsin, which is concerning given the Badgers' poor performance this season. I think the bye week represents a get-back scenario for Dan Lanning and his squad, and he has had plenty of time to review Iowa film and formulate the best strategy for securing a win. Although the weather may be a factor, both teams will attempt to establish their run game early and wear down the opponent. This pick centers around two factors: 1. Oregon's ability to pull away late, and 2. Iowa's success through the air. Oregon is tough against the run but more forgiving in the passing game, as was demonstrated against Indiana. While you can't compare the Hooisers and Hawkeyes offensively, Oregon's pass defense has had some struggles, and Iowa may need to diversify its offensive attack to keep things competitive. We could be hovering around 30-35 points by the fourth quarter, and Oregon should be able to throw a garbage TD in before the horn sounds.
Under 52.5 
Texas Tech vs. [LOGOBYU
I think the Cougars' Cinderella season will come to a screeching halt against the Red Raiders, and there's one major factor that makes this call. LJ Martin, who is one of the nation's best running backs, is listed as doubtful for Saturday, and his absence puts a huge dent in BYU's game plan. The team will have to rely on top-notch defense and a stellar outing from Bear Bachmeieier to keep the game competitive. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses in the country and an electrifying offense behind Behren Morton and two stellar running backs, and Tech will be one of BYU's stiffest tests. The bulk of Bachmieier's plays involve zone reads, and the Red Raiders have proved to be excellent in defending that approach. The spread was a bit too high to take, but I believe both defenses will be able to make this game a low-scoring affair. I expect a slow, plodding approach from the Cougars, who will try to control the clock and keep the Red Raiders off the field.
Louisiana Tech (-6) vs. Delaware
Louisiana Tech will lock down a bowl bid if it can get past Delaware, and I think they will be up to the task. The Buldogs possess an excellent, unrelenting defense that should keep Delaware behind the sticks. The Blue Hens aren't bad, but their run game will be largely ineffective against one of the country's best run defenses. I don't think Blake Baker is a dependable signal-caller, but he finds himself in a pretty safe situation here and should stay out of trouble. This pick is more about Dealware's inability to score against this defense. LT should win by a touchdown or more.
Alabama (-9.5) vs. LSU
Brian Kelly is running out of opportunities to save his job, and losing to Alabama this week won't help matters. I'd give pause to this bet if this gam was in Baton Rouge, but Alabama's home crowd will be a nightmare for the Tigers. There's no good way to say it - LSU's offense is struggling. Although they have an excellent quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, the running attack isn't strong enough to open up the passing game efficiently, and they struggle to keep the game vertical. Bubble screens and quick slants won't be enough to get past Alabama's defense, and this game could quickly get out of hand if Ty Simpson and his offense is dialed in.
Virginia (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest
The Cavaliers have heard the bad news from the CFP panel, and Tony Elliott now knows exactly what he needs to do to impress the illuminati and make the playoff - run up the score.
Although the Demon Deacons will be upset-minded, they are coming off an embarrassing loss against Florida State in a game where they were expected to have more success. As long as the Cavaliers can keep Chandler Morris upright, his arm, combined with J'Mari Taylor's legs, should be able to take care of business at home. The Cavs undoubtedly feel disrespected after being ranked 14th. They'll be supremely motivated this week.
Last Week: 1-4-0 Season: 18-32-0
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